Kev nce nyiaj nce ntxiv nyob rau thawj lub hlis ntawm lub xyoo, tiv thaiv kev cia siab los ntawm cov tub ua lag luam thiab cov neeg ua haujlwm dhau qhov kev hloov pauv tsis tu ncua qis dua pom hauv kev nyeem tsis ntev los no.
cov Tus Nqi Khoom Siv Tus Nqi (CPI) rau Lub Ib Hlis tau pom qhov nce ntawm 0.5% ntawm tus nqi nyob rau lub hli dhau los, kev nrawm los ntawm kev nyeem ua ntej, tsoomfwv cov ntaub ntawv qhia hnub Tuesday. Nyob rau hauv ib xyoos ib zaug, CPI tau nce 6.4%, txuas ntxiv mus tsis tu ncua los ntawm 9.1% ncov lub Rau Hli.
Cov kws tshawb fawb tau xav tias tus nqi nce 6.2% hauv lub xyoo thiab dhia 0.5% ib hlis dhau ib hlis, raws li kev pom zoo kwv yees los ntawm Bloomberg. Kev hloov kho raws caij nyoog tshiab tso tawm los ntawm BLS rau hnub Friday kuj tau hloov lub Kaum Ob Hlis qhov kev nyeem thawj zaug ntawm 0.1% txhua hli poob rau hauv kev nce nqi nce mus txog 0.1% hauv lub xyoo kawg ntawm lub hli.
Core CPI, uas tshem tawm cov khoom noj tsis haum thiab lub zog ntawm daim ntawv tshaj tawm, nce 5.6% xyoo dhau los, ntau dua li qhov xav tau, thiab 0.4% nyob rau lub hli dhau los. Kev kwv yees tau hu rau 5.5% txhua xyoo nce thiab 0.4% txhua hli nce hauv CPI nyeem ntawv tseem ceeb.
US stocks swb Tom qab qhov kev tso tawm, thaum Lub Txhab Nyiaj Txiag tau poob qis, raws li cov tub ua lag luam tau soj ntsuam qhov cuam tshuam ntawm hnub Tuesday qhov kev tso tawm ntawm Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve txoj cai,
Daim ntawv xov xwm tseem ceeb rau Lub Ib Hlis yog qhov tsawg tshaj plaws 12-lub hlis nce txij li lub sijhawm xaus Lub Kaum Hli 2021, thaum lub sijhawm nyeem ntawv txhua xyoo yog qhov tsawg tshaj plaws txij li lub Kaum Ob Hlis 2021. Txawm tias daim duab nyiaj txiag tau txhim kho txij li lub ncov ntawm lub voj voog tam sim no xyoo tas los, cov nqi nce. rau cov khoom tseem ceeb tseem yog lub nra rau cov neeg siv khoom Asmeskas.
Cov neeg tsim cai tswjfwm saib xyuas "core" kev nce nqi ntau dua vim nws qhov tsis zoo saib ntawm cov tswv yim tseem ceeb xws li vaj tse, thaum lub ntsiab lus CPI daim duab tau txav mus rau hauv kev sib tw nrog cov nqi hluav taws xob tsis zoo xyoo tas los.
Cov nqi vaj tsev txuas ntxiv yog qhov tseem ceeb hauv CPI daim ntawv tshaj tawm txog tam sim no, suav txog ze li ib nrab ntawm kev nce nqi txhua hli hauv kev nce nqi, Bureau of Labor Statistics tau hais.
Pawg vaj tse ntawm CPI - uas suav txog 30% ntawm tag nrho CPI thiab 40% ntawm cov ntawv nyeem tseem ceeb - nce 0.7% nyob rau lub hli thiab 7.9% xyoo tas los.
Rau Fed Chair Jerome Powell, vaj tse kev nce nyiaj txiag - ib qho "stickier" feem ntawm CPI uas tseem ua siab tawv siab - yog ib qho tseem ceeb ntawm kev ntsuam xyuas txoj hauv kev rau cov paj laum. Hauv kev sib tham zaum-down lub lim tiam dhau los hauv Washington, DC, Powell tau hais tias nws cia siab tias vaj tse nyiaj txiag yuav poob rau nruab nrab xyoo.
“Muaj kev cia siab tias [inflation] yuav ploj mus sai sai thiab tsis mob; Kuv tsis xav tias nws tau lees tias yog rooj plaub, "Powell tau hais rau hnub Monday dhau los ntawm Economic Club ntawm DC, txawm tias nws tau lees paub tias muaj "kev cuam tshuam" hauv kev lag luam. "Nws yuav siv qee lub sijhawm."
"Lub zog ntawm kev nce nqi tseem ceeb qhia tau tias Fed muaj ntau txoj haujlwm ua kom nce nyiaj rov qab mus rau 2%," Maria Vassalou, tus thawj coj peev ntawm Multi-Asset Solutions ntawm Goldman Sachs Asset Management tau hais hauv tsab ntawv. "Yog tias cov khw muag khoom muag tseem pom muaj zog tag kis, Fed tej zaum yuav tau nce lawv cov peev nyiaj lub hom phiaj mus rau 5.5% txhawm rau tswj kev nce nqi."
Tus nqi zaub mov tau nce 0.5% nyob rau lub Ib Hlis, nce los ntawm Lub Kaum Ob Hlis 0.3% nce, thaum tus nqi khoom noj hauv tsev tau nce 0.4%. Qe nqi, uas tau nce 70% xyoo dhau los thiab 8.5% nyob rau lub hli dhau los, tau ib tug tseem ceeb contributor.
Kev nce nqi ntawm cov nqi hluav taws xob kuj yog ib qho kev txhawb nqa loj, nrog rau lub zog Performance index nce 2% nyob rau lub hli.
Qee qhov kev txhim kho hauv daim duab nyiaj txiag tau pom hauv daim ntawv tshaj tawm. Cov nqi tsheb siv thiab tsheb thauj khoom, kev kho mob, thiab cov nqi caij dav hlau poob qis dua lub hli.
Cov tub ua lag luam tsis ntev los no tau rov ntsuas qhov kev cia siab ntawm kev nce nqi sai npaum li cas thiab Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve yuav nce tus nqi siab npaum li cas txhawm rau txhim kho tus nqi.
Lub lim tiam dhau los, CME Group's FedWatch Tool, uas ntsuas kev ua lag luam kev cia siab rau tsoomfwv cov nyiaj tau los, tau qhia qhov ntau yam nrog qhov yuav tshwm sim siab tshaj plaws nyob rau thaum xaus ntawm lub xyoo yog 4.50-4.75%, lossis tus nqi tam sim no tom qab Fed's 0.25% nce ua ntej no hli.
Qhov kev kwv yees tshiab tam sim no pom tus nqi ntawm 4.75-5.00% thaum kawg ntawm lub xyoo no.
"[Inflation] nqis los ntawm qhov siab tshaj plaws, thiab tej zaum peb yuav pom kev nce nqi ntxiv mus rau nruab nrab thaum lub xyoo mus. Tab sis txawm tias nyob rau xyoo tas los, qhov zoo tshaj plaws, kev nce nqi tseem yuav nce 3%, tej zaum 3.5% los ntawm ib xyoos thiab ib nrab dhau los, "Cumberland Advisors tus thawj coj Asmeskas tus kws tshawb fawb nyiaj txiag David W. Berson hais rau Yahoo Finance Live Monday.
"Kuv qhov kev kwv yees yog Fed yuav tsis yooj yim rau xyoo no - nws yuav tsis nruj ntau ntxiv, peb yuav pom cov nyiaj pub dawb ntawm qhov siab tshaj me ntsis mus txog 5% - tab sis qhov ntawd txawv heev ntawm qhov kev cia siab tias nyob rau xyoo tas los Fed yuav yooj yim. ”
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Alexandra Semenova yog tus sau xov xwm rau Yahoo Nyiaj Txiag. Ua raws nws ntawm Twitter @alexandraandnyc
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Tau qhov twg los: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/january-consumer-prices-inflation-data-cpi-february-14-123544672.html