Ob peb yam uas tau txav mus rau Asmeskas kev lag luam hauv xyoo tas los xws li cov ntaub ntawv nyiaj txiag thiab kev nyeem ntawv tom ntej yuav yog lub lim tiam no.
Nyob rau hauv qhov kev tsom teeb yog lub Ib Hlis Ntuj tus nqi ntsuas tus nqi, uas tau teem kom tso tawm thaum 8:30 teev sawv ntxov Eastern hnub Tuesday. Cov tub luam cia siab tias cov ntaub ntawv yuav muab cov lus qhia ntxiv txog seb Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve puas tuaj yeem ncua nws cov paj laum tom qab xyoo no hauv nws qhov kev sib ntaus sib tua nrog kev nce nqi uas tau khiav ntawm 40-xyoo siab xyoo tas los.
Qhov tseeb, CPI cov ntaub ntawv tshaj tawm hnub tau yog ib qho kev hloov pauv loj tshaj plaws rau cov khoom lag luam rau xyoo dhau los.
Thaum cov ntaub ntawv nyiaj txiag lub Yim Hli tuaj txog kub dua li qhov xav tau rau lub Cuaj Hlis 13, S&P 500 thiab Nasdaq Composite poob 4.3% thiab 5.2%, feem, lawv qhov loj tshaj plaws ib hnub poob hauv 2022, raws li Dow Jones cov ntaub ntawv lag luam.
Los ntawm qhov sib txawv, thaum Lub Kaum Hli CPI cov ntaub ntawv tau tshaj tawm thaum Lub Kaum Ib Hlis 10, S&P 500
SPX,
thiab cov Nasdaq Composite
COMP,
rallied ntau dua 5.5% thiab 7.3%, feem, sau lawv cov kev sib tw loj tshaj plaws hauv ib hnub hauv 2022.
Intraday volatility zoo li tseem ceeb ib yam li thaum CPI hnub nyob rau hauv lub hlis tsis ntev los no. Thaum lub Cuaj Hlis cov ntaub ntawv tau tshaj tawm rau Lub Kaum Hli 13, Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
tau nce ze li ntawm 1,500 cov ntsiab lus los ntawm nws qhov trough mus rau lub ncov, sau ib qho ntawm qhov loj tshaj plaws intraday swings rau qhov Performance index nyob rau hauv xyoo tas los.
Cov ntaub ntawv nyiaj txiag rau lub Ib Hlis thiab lub hlis tom ntej tshwj xeeb yog qhov tseem ceeb, raws li nws yuav taw tes rau seb Fed puas tuaj yeem ua tiav kev tswj hwm Asmeskas kev lag luam mus rau "qhov chaw mos," qhov chaw nyiaj txiag poob qis thaum cov nyiaj poob haujlwm tseem qis, raws li Scott Ladner, tus thawj coj peev ntawm Horizon Kev nqis peev.
Nyuam qhuav pib lub hlis no, Fed Thawj Tswj Hwm Jerome Powell tau hais thawj zaug tias "txoj kev tsis sib haum xeeb" tab tom ua. Nws rov hais dua cov ntsiab lus nyob rau lub lim tiam dhau los, hais hauv kev xam phaj tias "txoj kev tsis sib haum xeeb, cov txheej txheem ntawm kev nce nqi qis, tau pib thiab nws tau pib hauv cov khoom lag luam, uas yog kwv yees li ib feem peb ntawm peb kev lag luam."
Tseem, "qhov tseeb yog peb yuav teb rau cov ntaub ntawv, yog li yog tias peb txuas ntxiv tau txais, piv txwv li, cov ntawv ceeb toom kev ua lag luam muaj zog lossis cov ntaub ntawv tshaj tawm nyiaj txiag ntau dua, nws yuav zoo li peb tau ua ntau dua thiab nce nqi. ntau dua tus nqi hauv, "nws hais ntxiv.
Powell tau xa cov lus hais tias ntev npaum li kev nce nyiaj nce ntxiv yooj yim, Fed yuav tso cai rau kev loj hlob ntawm kev lag luam kom ruaj khov, raws li Horizon's Ladner.
Uas tau hais tias, kev ua lag luam tsis ntshai ntawm CPI cov lus ceeb toom ntxiv lawm, vim tias txhua xyoo tus nqi nce nyiaj tau poob rau rau lub hlis sib law liag, hais tias Brian Overby, tus kws tshaj lij kev lag luam loj ntawm Ally. Overby tau hais tias "Kev ua lag luam tau mob siab rau CPI.
Txawm li cas los xij, qee qhov tsis paub tseeb tseem nyob. "Kuv xav tias feem ntau cov kws lag luam nyiaj txiag thiab cov neeg tsim cai tsuas yog xav tias nws yuav yog ib txoj hauv kev loj hlob ntawm kev nce nqi los ntawm qhov no tam sim no, tab sis qhov ntawd yuav tsis yog li ntawd," Megan Greene, tus kws tshaj lij nyiaj txiag thoob ntiaj teb ntawm Kroll Institute, hais rau MarketWatch hauv xov tooj sib tham.
Cov ntaub ntawv tuaj tom qab kev lag luam Tshuag lag luam 2023 rally stalled nyob rau hauv lub lim tiam dhau los. Lub Nasdaq Composite pom 2.4% lub caij nplooj zeeg, xaus ib txoj hlua ntawm tsib qhov kev nce hauv ib lub lim tiam, thaum S&P 500 poob 1.1% thiab Dow poob 0.2%. Cov khoom lag luam tseem nyob ruaj khov rau xyoo tshiab.
Saib: Vim li cas lub khw lag luam 'FOMO' rally nres thiab dab tsi yuav txiav txim siab nws txoj hmoo
Cov kws tshawb fawb soj ntsuam los ntawm Phab ntsa Street Journal kwv yees nce 0.4% hauv Lub Ib Hlis CPI, uas yuav ua rau qeeb xyoo dhau xyoo mus rau 6.2% los ntawm 6.5% thaum Lub Kaum Ob Hlis. Xyoo dhau ib xyoos CPI tau nce siab ntawm kwv yees li 40-xyoo siab ntawm 9.1% lub caij ntuj sov dhau los. Core CPI, uas tsis suav cov zaub mov tsis hloov pauv thiab cov nqi hluav taws xob, xav tias yuav nce 0.3% hauv Lub Ib Hlis, nrog rau xyoo dhau los ntawm 5.4% piv rau 5.7% thaum Lub Kaum Ob Hlis.
Jay Hatfield, tus thawj coj ntawm Infrastructure Capital Management, tau hais tias nws txhawj xeeb tias CPI tseem ceeb yuav luam tawm kub dua li qhov xav tau.
"Dab tsi tau ua rau kev nce nqi nce siab yog qhov tsis muaj zog ntawm cov tsheb siv. Thiab peb cov ntaub ntawv qhia tau hais tias kev siv tsheb nce nqi tau nce thiab tsis nqis, "Hatfield hais. Lub caij no, txoj hauv kev uas Bureau of Labor Statistics suav cov nqi vaj tse zoo li ua rau tus lej luam tawm ntau dua, Hatfield tau hais.
Louis Navellier, tus tsim thiab tus thawj coj ua lag luam ntawm Navellier & Associates, tau hais tias nws tau them nyiaj tshwj xeeb rau cov tswv cov nqi sib npaug, uas yog ib feem ntawm cov vaj tse nyob hauv CPI. Nws tau nce nrawm txij lub Kaum Ib Hlis mus txog Lub Kaum Ob Hlis thiab Fed "yeej xav pom lub caij nplooj zeeg, vim tias qhov kawg ntawm kev nce nqi peb yuav tsum poob," Navellier tau hais.
Horizon's Ladner, ntawm qhov tod tes, hais tias Fed nws tus kheej tau taw qhia tias kev nce nqi vaj tse yuav nyob ruaj khov, yog li nws tsis zoo li yuav tsum tau them nyiaj ntau rau nws. Ladner tau hais tias nws feem ntau tsom mus rau cov kev pabcuam uas tsis yog tsev nyob-txog kev nce nqi. Ladner tau hais tias "Muaj ntau qhov kev pom tseeb ntawm qhov tshwm sim nrog cov khoom lag luam nce nqi - nws tau pom tseeb nqis los," Ladner tau hais.
Ua kom tsis zoo rau daim duab, daim ntawv tshaj tawm Lub Ib Hlis yuav pom Lub Chaw Haujlwm Saib Xyuas Kev Ua Haujlwm Saib Xyuas Kev Ua Haujlwm qhia qhov hnyav tshiab rau nws qhov kev suav ntawm CPI rau xyoo tom ntej. Rau lub xyoo no, lub chaw lis haujlwm tau hloov nws cov txheej txheem los ntawm kev siv cov ntaub ntawv siv nyob rau hauv ob xyoos mus rau ib xyoos nkaus xwb rau qhov hnyav ntawm CPI Cheebtsam.
Nws txhais tau hais tias 2023 CPI daim ntawv tshaj tawm yuav tsuas yog raws li cov ntaub ntawv kev siv nyiaj hauv 2021, thaum kev siv nyiaj hnyav dua rau kev siv cov khoom siv tsis yog kev pabcuam, raws li Richard de Chazal, macro kws tshuaj ntsuam ntawm William Blair.
Cov ntaub ntawv Lub Ib Hlis Ntuj kuj tseem yuav hnyav dua rau cov khoom siv, uas tau hloov kho, de Chazal tau sau rau hnub Friday.
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/inflation-data-rocked-the-us-stock-market-in-2022-what-investors-need-to-know-about-tuesdays-reading-e6517631? siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo