Ib tug poj niam thawb lub laub mus yuav khoom los ntawm cov khw muag khoom noj ntawm Target hauv Annapolis, Maryland, thaum Lub Tsib Hlis 16, 2022, raws li cov neeg Asmeskas tau tuav lub caij ntuj sov daim ntawv nplaum vim kev nce nyiaj nce ntxiv.
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Cov neeg tseem zoo li txaus siab tawm mus ncig, mus saib yeeb yaj kiab thiab haus dej lossis ob, txawm tias cov nqi nce ntxiv thiab kev ntshai ntawm kev lag luam nyiaj txiag kom lawv rub rov qab rau lwm qhov chaw.
Yuav ua li cas tib neeg siv lawv cov nyiaj hloov pauv raws li kev lag luam qeeb thiab kev nce nqi nce nqi siab dua txhua qhov chaw xws li chaw nres tsheb roj, khw muag khoom noj thiab khw muag khoom kim heev. Kev ua lag luam vaj tsev, piv txwv li, twb tau hnov lub pinch. Lwm qhov kev lag luam tau ntev tau suav tias yog pov thawj kev lag luam poob qis thiab tej zaum yuav txaus siab rau lub pob thaum tib neeg pib tawm mus dua tom qab poob qis thaum muaj kev sib kis.
Txawm li cas los xij, cov neeg yuav khoom txhua qhov chaw muaj kev ntxhov siab. Thaum lub Tsib Hlis, qhov kev ntsuas kev nce nqi uas taug qab cov nqi ntawm ntau yam khoom thiab kev pabcuam tau dhia 8.6% los ntawm ib xyoos dhau los, qhov dhia loj tshaj plaws txij li xyoo 1981.. Cov neeg siv khoom zoo siab txog lawv cov nyiaj txiag thiab kev xav ntawm kev lag luam tag nrho poob mus rau 50.2% nyob rau lub Rau Hli, nws qib qis tshaj plaws, raws li University of Michigan qhov ntsuas txhua hli.
Raws li cov nqi roj thiab khoom noj nce siab, Brigette Engler, tus kws kos duab nyob hauv New York City, tau hais tias nws tau tsav tsheb mus rau nws lub tsev thib ob hauv xeev qis dua thiab txiav rov qab noj mov.
"Nees nkaum duas las zoo li extravagant ntawm lub sijhawm no rau noj su," nws hais.
Nov yog saib seb cov sectors sib txawv li cas nyob rau hauv kev lag luam qeeb.
Movies, kev paub tuav
Nyob Hauv Tebchaws Lom ze, uas yog tus tswv qhov chaw ua yeeb yam thiab Ticketmaster, tseem tsis tau pom cov neeg nyiam tuaj koom kev sib tham tsis tau, CEO Joe Berchtold tau hais ntawm William Blair Growth Stock Conference ua ntej lub hli no.
Hauv cov yeeb yaj kiab ua yeeb yaj kiab, blockbusters nyiam "Jurassic Ntiaj Teb: Ncaws"Thiab"Sab saum toj rab phom: Maverick” kuj tau rub hauv lub thawv ntawv muag khoom muaj zog. Kev lag luam yeeb yaj kiab ntev tau suav tias yog "cov pov thawj kev poob nyiaj txiag," txij li cov tib neeg uas tso tseg rau hnub so pricier lossis rov ua dua Netflix subscriptions feem ntau tseem tuaj yeem them tau daim pib ua yeeb yaj kiab kom khiav tawm ob peb teev.
Cawv yog lwm pawg uas feem ntau muaj kev tiv thaiv los ntawm kev lag luam poob qis, thiab tib neeg tau tawm mus rau cov khw noj mov dua tom qab haus ntau dua hauv tsev thaum hnub pib muaj kev sib kis. Txawm hais tias brewers, distillers thiab winemakers nce nqi, tuam txhab uas muag tau twv tias tib neeg txaus siab them nyiaj ntau dua rau cov cawv zoo dua.
"Cov neeg siv khoom txuas ntxiv pauv mus, tsis poob," Molson Coors haus CEO Gavin Hattersley tau hais ntawm lub tuam txhab cov nyiaj tau los hu thaum lub Tsib Hlis. Tej zaum nws yuav zoo li tsis txaus ntseeg, tab sis nws tau hais tias qhov sib txawv yog nyob rau hauv txoj kab nrog kev lag luam tsis ntev los no.
Kev muag cawv kuj tau tiv thaiv ib feem vim tias cov nqi tsis tau nce sai npaum li tus nqi rau lwm yam khoom. Thaum lub Tsib Hlis, cov nqi cawv tau nce kwv yees li 4% ntawm ib xyoo dhau los, piv nrog 8.6% dhia rau tag nrho cov neeg siv khoom tus nqi ntsuas.
Cov dav hlau loj zoo li Delta, American thiab United kuj tau kwv yees a rov qab mus rau profitability ua tsaug rau qhov kev xav tau mus ncig ntau ntxiv. Cov neeg siv khoom tau zom cov nqi ntau dua, pab cov dav hlau npog cov nqi roj thiab lwm yam nuj nqis, txawm tias domestic bookings tau poob hauv ob lub hlis dhau los.
Nws tsis paub meej tias kev sib tw rov qab mus rau saum ntuj yuav txuas ntxiv tom qab lub caij nplooj ntoos hlav thiab caij ntuj sov mus ncig ua si. Kev mus ncig ua lag luam feem ntau tuaj txog thaum lub caij nplooj zeeg, tab sis cov dav hlau yuav tsis tuaj yeem suav qhov ntawd vim qee lub tuam txhab nrhiav txoj hauv kev los txwv cov nuj nqis thiab tseem tshaj tawm kev tawm haujlwm.
Tib neeg txoj kev xav tawm mus thiab kev sib raug zoo dua kuj tseem txhawb nqa cov khoom lag luam xws li daim di ncauj thiab lub siab heels uas tau muab tso tseg thaum muaj kev sib kis. Qhov ntawd tsis ntev los no tau pab kev muag khoom ntawm cov khw muag khoom suav nrog Macy tus thiab Ulta Kev Zoo Nkauj, uas lub hli tas los txhawb nqa lawv cov nyiaj tau los tag nrho cov kev kwv yees.
Cov khoom kim heev xws li Chanel thiab Gucci kuj tseem ua pov thawj tias muaj zog dua, nrog cov neeg Asmeskas cov neeg nplua nuj tsis cuam tshuam los ntawm kev nce nqi hauv lub hlis tsis ntev los no. Lawv cov kev cov nyom tau muaj kev xav ntau dua hauv Suav teb thaum lig, qhov chaw muaj kev txwv tsis pub muaj kev sib kis.
Tab sis qhov kev ntshai yog tias qhov kev hloov pauv no tuaj yeem hloov pauv sai sai, thiab cov khw muag khoom tau txais txiaj ntsig luv luv tuaj yeem evaporate. Ntau tshaj li yim ntawm 10 Asmeskas cov neeg siv khoom tau npaj yuav hloov pauv kom thim rov qab lawv cov kev siv nyiaj hauv peb mus rau rau lub hlis tom ntej, raws li kev tshawb fawb los ntawm NPD Group, lub tuam txhab tshawb fawb cov neeg siv khoom.
"Muaj kev sib ntaus sib tua ntawm cov neeg siv khoom xav yuav qhov lawv xav tau thiab qhov xav tau los ua kev pom zoo raws li tus nqi siab dua los tsoo lawv lub hnab," said Marshal Cohen, tus kws tshaj lij kev lag luam muag khoom muag rau NPD.
Tsev, cov khoom loj-daim pib nyem
Rising cov paj laum tau dampened kev thov tsev, uas tam sim no kwv yees li ib nrab ntawm qhov nws yog ib xyoos dhau los. Cov kev xav hauv tsev tau poob mus rau theem qis tshaj hauv ob xyoos tom qab poob rau rau lub hlis sib law liag. Cov tuam txhab vaj tse Redfin thiab Compass ob leeg tau tshaj tawm kev tawm haujlwm ua ntej lub lim tiam no.
"Nrog lub Tsib Hlis xav tau 17% qis dua qhov kev cia siab, peb tsis muaj haujlwm txaus rau peb cov neeg ua haujlwm thiab cov neeg ua haujlwm txhawb nqa," Redfin CEO Glenn Kelman tau sau email rau cov neeg ua haujlwm tom qab tshaj tawm hauv lub tuam txhab lub vev xaib.
Rau cov khw muag khoom lag luam dav dav, cov ntaub ntawv los ntawm Lub Tsev Haujlwm Saib Xyuas Kev Lag Luam kuj tau pom tias muaj qhov xav tsis thoob 0.3% poob tag nrho hauv lub Tsib Hlis los ntawm lub hli dhau los. Qhov ntawd suav nrog kev poob qis ntawm cov khw muag khoom online thiab lwm lub khw muag khoom xws li florists thiab chaw ua haujlwm.
Thiab thaum qhov kev thov rau cov tsheb tshiab thiab siv tseem muaj zog, cov thawj coj hauv kev lag luam pib pib pom cov tsos mob ntawm qhov teeb meem. Nrog rau tus nqi tshiab thiab siv tsheb nce los ntawm ob tus lej nyob rau xyoo tas los, lub tsheb thiab lwm cov tsheb tsav tsheb tau pom kev muag khoom poob qis 4% hauv lub Tsib Hlis los ntawm lub hli dhau los, raws li US Department of Commerce.
Ford Tsav CFO John Lawler tau hais rau lub lim tiam no tias kev ua txhaum cai ntawm kev qiv tsheb pib pib zuam ib yam nkaus. Txawm hais tias qhov kev nce ntxiv tuaj yeem qhia txog lub sijhawm nyuaj ua ntej, nws hais tias nws tseem tsis tau muaj kev txhawj xeeb, vim tias kev ua txhaum cai tau qis.
"Nws zoo li peb tab tom thim rov qab ntau dua rau qhov txhais tau tias," Lawler hais ntawm Deutsche Bank lub rooj sib tham.
Kev lag luam hauv tsev noj mov tseem pom cov cim qhia txog teeb meem, txawm tias cov khw noj mov cuam tshuam li cas tuaj yeem sib txawv.
Fast-food chains kuj tau ib txwm ua tau zoo dua hauv kev lag luam poob qis vim tias lawv pheej yig dua thiab kos cov neeg noj mov nrog kev txhawb nqa. Qee lub tuam txhab tsev noj mov kuj tau twv cov neeg yuav noj mov kom ntev npaum li cov khoom noj khoom haus nce nrawm dua.
Tus nqi ntawm cov zaub mov tawm hauv tsev tau nce 7.4% nyob rau 12 lub hlis xaus rau lub Tsib Hlis, tab sis cov nqi khoom noj hauv tsev tau nce sai dua, tua 11.9%, raws li Bureau of Labor Statistics. Cov khw noj mov International CEO Jose Cil thiab Wendy's CEO Todd Penegor yog cov thawj coj ntawm cov khoom noj ceev uas tau hais txog qhov sib txawv uas yog qhov zoo rau kev lag luam.
Tab sis McDonald lub CEO Chris Kempczinski tau hais nyob rau lub Tsib Hlis thaum ntxov tias cov neeg tau txais txiaj ntsig tau nyiaj tsawg tau pib xaj cov khoom pheej yig dua lossis txo qhov loj ntawm lawv cov xaj. Raws li lub tsev noj mov loj tshaj plaws hauv Teb Chaws Asmeskas los ntawm kev muag khoom, nws tau pom ntau zaus raws li lub suab nrov rau kev lag luam.
Nyob rau sab saum toj ntawm qhov ntawd, kev khiav tsheb hla kev lag luam hauv khw noj mov tau qeeb mus rau nws qhov qis tshaj plaws ntawm lub xyoo hauv thawj lub lim tiam ntawm Lub Rau Hli, raws li kev lag luam tshawb fawb tuam txhab Black Box Intelligence. Qhov ntawd yog tom qab tus naj npawb ntawm kev mus ntsib kuj qeeb hauv lub Tsib Hlis, txawm tias kev muag khoom tau nce 0.7% ntawm kev siv nyiaj ntau dua ib zaug.
Tus kws tshuaj ntsuam Barclays Jeffrey Bernstein kuj tau hais hauv tsab ntawv tshawb fawb rau hnub Friday tias cov khw noj mov tau nce kev txo nqi, ib qho qhia tias lawv xav tias tib lub khw muag khoom loj hlob qeeb. Ntawm cov chains uas tau qhia txog kev cog lus tshiab los kos cov neeg noj mov yog Domino Pizza, uas yog muab ib nrab nqi pizzas, thiab Wendy tus, uas coj rov qab nws $ 5 Biggie Bag noj mov.
Ntawm cov kev sib tw kom hloov mus rau kev hloov pauv ntawm tus neeg yuav khoom tus cwj pwm yog cov khw muag khoom loj xws li Target thiab Walmart, uas tau tshaj tawm cov lus qhia ceev faj rau xyoo tom ntej.
Lub hom phiaj ceeb toom cov tub ua lag luam Lub hli dhau los no tias nws cov nyiaj tau los ntawm peb lub hlis twg ob yuav raug cuam tshuam vim nws txo cov neeg yuav khoom thaum muaj kev sib kis tab sis tsis xav tau, xws li cov khoom siv me me thiab hluav taws xob. Cov khw muag khoom loj loj tab tom sim ua kom muaj chaw nyob ntawm nws lub txee rau cov khoom lag luam uas xav tau tam sim no: cov khoom zoo nkauj, cov khoom siv hauv tsev thiab cov khoom siv rov qab rau hauv tsev kawm ntawv.
CEO Brian Cornell hais rau CNBC tias lub tuam txhab cov khw muag khoom thiab lub vev xaib tseem tab tom pom kev muaj zog thiab "cov neeg siv khoom muaj zog heev" tag nrho, txawm tias muaj kev hloov pauv hauv lawv qhov kev nyiam yuav. Sib tw Walmart tseem tau txo qis cov khoom uas xav tau tsawg dua li cov ris tsho, txawm hais tias cov khw muag khoom loj tau hais nws tau txais kev koom nrog hauv cov khoom noj raws li cov neeg yuav khoom saib kom txuag tau.
- Leslie Josephs, Lauren Thomas, Michael Wayland, John Rosevear, Sarah Whitten thiab Melissa Repko tau pab qhia.
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/19/inflation-and-recession-fears-are-squeezing-some-industries-more-than-others.html