Kev Muag Khoom Ntau Ntxiv thiab S&P Tus Nqi Them Nqi Tau Ua Cov chij daj loj

Raws li lwm lub limtiam trading plays tawm cia peb ua ib qho kev suav ntawm kev ua lag luam.

Feem ntau qhov kev sib tw loj tshaj plaws tau kaw nyob ze lawv qhov siab tshaj hnub Thursday vim peb ntawm cov kab kos tau tswj kom kaw saum lawv cov kab nyob ze rau lub sijhawm poob. Kev lag luam dav dav pom qee qhov kev txhim kho me me thiab.

Thaum lub McClellan OB / OS Oscillators tseem muag, cov neeg sab hauv txuas ntxiv ua kom lawv cov khoom muag. Thiab S&P 500 tus nqi rau pem hauv ntej tseem nyob ntawm tus nqi tseem ceeb rau ballpark tus nqi ncaj ncees. Qhov no yog ua ke nrog 10-xyoo Treasury Yield nyob rau hauv ib tug uptrend.

Tag nrho cov no yog muab qhov hnyav txaus rau ntawm qhov ntsuas los qhia kom ceev faj txog kev sib npaug.

Tam sim no cia peb khawb me ntsis ntxiv…

Qee qhov Index Charts tig nruab nrab

Daim duab Source: Worden

Ntawm cov kab kos, qhov kev sib tw loj tshaj plaws tau kaw siab dua hnub Thursday nrog qhov zoo NYSE thiab Nasdaq sab hauv vim ob qho tib si pom kev lag luam poob qis los ntawm kev sib tham dhau los.

Feem ntau kaw ze ntawm lawv qhov kev sib tham siab uas tau tso cai rau S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite (saib saum toj no) thiab Nasdaq 100 kom kaw saum lawv cov kab nyob ze rau lub sijhawm downtrend, tig tau hais tias cov kev hloov mus rau nruab nrab ntawm kev poob qis. Txawm li cas los xij, tus so tseem nyob hauv qhov tsis zoo.

Kev ua lag luam dav dav pom qee qhov kev txhim kho me me raws li Tag Nrho Kev Sib Pauv thiab NYSE ua ntej / poob kab ua rau nruab nrab los ntawm kev poob qis nrog Nasdaq nyob tsis zoo.

Stochastic qib yog oversold ntawm tag nrho cov kab kos tab sis tseem tsis tau tsim kom muaj kev sib tw sib tw.

Kev Muag Khoom Ntau Ntxiv

Ntawm cov ntaub ntawv dashboard, 1-Hnub McClellan Overbought / Oversold Oscillators tseem muag tab sis tsawg dua (Txhua Kev Sib Pauv: -60.3 NYSE: -68.25 Nasdaq: -53.93). Lub peev xwm bounce tau tsis muaj zog.

Qhov feem pua ​​​​ntawm S&P 500 teeb meem kev lag luam saum toj no lawv 50-hnub txav nruab nrab (qhov taw qhia tsis sib xws) tau nce mus rau 50% thiab tseem nyob ntawm qhov teeb meem nruab nrab.

Lub Open Insider Buy/Sell Ratio txuas ntxiv yoj tus chij daj loj, hauv peb qhov kev pom, raws li cov neeg sab hauv txuas ntxiv ua kom lawv cov kev muag khoom tsis ntev los no mus rau qhov poob qis 18.8. Lawv tau ua cov neeg muag khoom nquag dhau los ntawm ob peb ntu dhau los hauv lub ntsej muag ntawm kev lag luam poob qis. Peb xav pom lawv ntau dua li cov neeg yuav khoom tsis muaj zog, tab sis qhov kev txiav txim no tseem tsis tau tshwm sim.

Qhov Qhib Insider yuav / muag piv yog 18.8% (bearish)

Lub detrend Rydex Ratio (contrarian indicator) slipped rau +0.03 thiab yog nruab nrab.

Lub lim tiam no AAII Dais / Bull Ratio (qhov taw qhia tsis sib xws) poob rau 0.87 raws li kev xav tau poob qis thiab tseem nyob nruab nrab.

Investors Intelligence Dais/Bull Ratio (tsis sib haum xeeb qhia) yog nruab nrab ntawm 59.4.

S&P's Valuation yog Stretched

Kev ntsuas ntsuas tseem muaj teeb meem.

Qhov kev pom zoo rau yav tom ntej 12-hli kev pom zoo cov nyiaj tau los ntawm Bloomberg rau S&P 500 tau nqis mus rau $ 220.69 ib feem thiab tseem muaj teeb meem vim nws P / E ntau ntawm 18.2x tseem nyob ntawm tus nqi tseem ceeb rau "txoj cai ntawm 20" ballpark tus nqi ncaj ncees ua 16.1x. Peb rov hais dua tias kev ntsuas ntsuas, hauv peb lub tswv yim, tseem tshuav me ntsis rau qhov ua yuam kev rau cov khoom sib npaug.

S&P cov nyiaj tau los yav tom ntej yog 5.55%.

10-Xyoo Treasury yield kaw qis dua ntawm 3.88%. Nws yog nyob rau lub sijhawm luv luv nrog kev txhawb nqa ntawm 3.76% thiab tsis kam ntawm 4.01%, los ntawm peb qhov kev tshuaj xyuas.

Peb Kev Lag Luam Outlook

Thaum cov kab kos tam sim no nyob rau hauv feem ntau cov qauv zoo, nce kev muag khoom sab hauv thiab kev ua lag luam tus nqi txuas ntxiv qhia kom ceev faj tseem tsim nyog ua ntej nkag mus.