Hauv 'tus me nyuam nrog da dej' kev ua lag luam, ntawm no yog lub kaum os cov khoom raug txim tsis ncaj ncees, ripe rau bounce

Kev poob qis nrog rau cov khoom lag luam thev naus laus zis xyoo no yog cov tuam txhab me me, uas yog tus nqi hauv "kev lag luam tsis zoo thiab poob qis dua li ntau lub lag luam dais," sau tseg ib pab pawg ntawm Jefferies cov tswv yim coj los ntawm Steven G. DeSanctis.

Lub Lav Xias 2000
ROV,
-1.91%
yog nqis 20% xyoo-rau hnub, tsis dhau deb ntawm 26% poob rau Nasdaq Composite
COMP,
-3.11%.
Zoo li Nasdaq, Russell yog nyob rau hauv kev tuav ntawm kev lag luam dais, nqis 26% los ntawm lub Kaum Ib Hlis 2021 txhua lub sijhawm siab.

"Nws tsuas yog ua phem rau cov kaus mom me me nrog kev ua tau zoo los ntawm qhov siab tshaj qhov kev lag luam nruab nrab thiab tseem phem dua li qhov nruab nrab rub rov qab. Qhov no tau thawb peb tus qauv ntsuas qhov tseeb rov qab mus rau tus nqi ncaj ncees thaum tsuas yog 15 lub hlis dhau los nws tau nyob hauv 100 feem pua, "DeSantis qhia cov neeg siv khoom hauv ib daim ntawv.

Jefferies sau tseg nws cov qauv kev ntsuas tus txheeb ze tam sim no nyob rau theem tsis tau pom txij li xyoo 2003. Thaum nws tau tos lwm lub khau kom poob - hauv daim ntawv ntawm cov nyiaj tau los kwv yees tom qab gloom los ntawm cov khw muag khoom - uas tseem tsis tau tshwm sim. DeSanctis tau hais tias pab pawg tau pom ntau qhov nce ntxiv raws li kev hloov kho qis hauv kev lag luam, thiab tej zaum nws yuav "ua phem dhau" hauv kev txiav nws lub hom phiaj xyoo 2022 Russell rau 2080 thiab cov nyiaj tau los loj hlob mus rau 13%.

Hauv peb hu nruab hnub, pab pawg Jefferies sib cav tias pawg neeg nyuaj ntawm cov khoom lag luam no tau raug txim tsis raug cai los ntawm "tus menyuam mos nrog cov dej da dej" cov tshuaj tiv thaiv los ntawm cov tub ua lag luam. Thiab pab neeg no muab ntau lub kaum os lossis ntau cov khoom lag luam uas nws xav tias tuaj yeem npaj rau bounce.

Qhov ntawd tsis yog tag nrho cov sectors ntawm chav kawm, thiab Jefferies yog tus thawj coj ntawm kev loj hlob ntawm secular, raws li kev kwv yees pheej poob. Cyclicals yog ib zaj dab neeg sib txawv. Tawm hauv kev lag luam dais, "cov khoom lag luam no dai nrog kev loj hlob, lawv txuas ntxiv pom cov kev hloov kho zoo dua, thiab '22 qhov kev kwv yees kev loj hlob tam sim no sawv ntawm ntau dua 18%," hais tias DeSanctis.

Tsis yog pab neeg leaning rau daim ntawv cog lus zoo xws li cov khoom tiv thaiv. "Kev ntsuas tau zoo tshaj lawv qhov nruab nrab mus sij hawm ntev, tau tsav los ntawm kev nkag mus rau hauv cov haujlwm no, thiab tau kawg, pawg neeg nyiam lag luam thaum tus dais rov qab mus rau hauv nws lub qhov tsua," pab pawg hais.

Thiab tsis txhob tso nyiaj rau cov khoom lag luam nrog kev nthuav tawm txawv teb chaws, raws li pab pawg xav tias Tuam Tshoj tau los ze dua rau qhov xaus kev kaw tseg (txawm tias Beijing muaj qee qhov xwm txheej nyuaj rau COVID-19 lub lim tiam no), nrog ntau cov peev txheej los txhawb lawv txoj kev lag luam. "Peb xav tias qhov no tuaj yeem zoo li ib nrab xyoo 2016 thaum cov npe tshaj tawm txawv teb chaws tau tuav qhov Performance index ntau dua 6% nyob rau hauv ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo," said DeSanctis.

Raws li cov npe yuav khoom, pab pawg muaj 14 uas tau "poob hnyav dua li qhov ntsuas, tab sis tsis nco cov lej lossis pom qhov txiav ntawm lawv qhov kwv yees." Sab saum toj yog Sonos, DraftKings, Aptiv, Pem teb & Kho kom zoo nkauj thiab Coty.

Ntawm no yog tag nrho cov npe:

Tswvyim: 'Kuv xav tias zoo li kuv rov qab los rau lub caij ntuj sov xyoo 2008.' Tus kws tshaj lij David Rosenberg pom kev lag luam dais hauv S&P 500 txog 3,300.

Lub buzz

SNAP qhia
SNAP,
-42.83%
yog poob qis 30%, tom qab pawg social-media tau hais tias nws yuav tsis zoo li peb lub hlis twg kwv yees vim yog ib qho "Ntxiv thiab nrawm dua li qhov xav tau" deterioration ntawm kev lag luam. Nws tseem yog ntaus lub so ntawm internet sector - Facebook niam txiv Meta Platforms
Fb,
-8.81%,
Pinterest 
Tus PINS,
-24.41%,
Cov tsiaj ntawv
GOOGL,
-5.96%
Thiab Twitter
TWG,
-5.77%.

Qhov zoo tshaj plaws Muas
BBY,
+ 0.77%
kev sib koom tau nce tom qab lub khw muag khoom hluav taws xob xa tawm cov nyiaj tau los, thaum Dole
LOJ,
-11.85%
yog ntog tom qab tus neeg muab khoom noj swung mus poob. Intuit
INTU, UA
-3.99%
thiab Agilent Technologies
A,
-1.61%
yuav qhia tom qab kaw.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell tom qab ntawd yuav tsum tau hais lus ntawm lub rooj sib tham hauv Native American kev loj hlob thaum 12:20 teev tsaus ntuj Eastern Time, nrog rau kev muag tsev tshiab thaum 10 teev sawv ntxov Eastern.

Lub rooj sib tham nrog cov tuam txhab nyiaj txiag loj, Lub Tuam Txhab Tuam Txhab Tuam Txhab Tuam Txhab thiab Tuam Tshoj tus tswj hwm kev lag luam tau hais kom cov qiv nyiaj "mus tag nrho kom ruaj khov cov hauv paus ntawm kev lag luam. " JPMorgan thiab UBS ob leeg tau txo qis Tuam Tshoj txoj kev lag luam tsis ntev los no.

Cov kev lag luam

Npaj rau yav tom ntej
ES 00,
-1.39%

YM00,
-0.35%

NQ 00,
-2.78%
yog thawb qis, nrog daim ntawv cog lus yields
TY00,
+ 0.69%

TUBMUSD 02Y,
2.499%
kuj drifting sab qab teb, roj nqi nyob rau hauv siab thiab duas
DXY,
-0.23%
tau txais qee qhov kev twv, nrog rau kub
GC00,
+ 0.87%.

Daim phiaj qhia

Qhov tseeb tshaj plaws hauv kev yos hav zoov rau cov khoom lag luam hauv qab yog los ntawm Stifel tus thawj tswj hwm kev ncaj ncees thiab cov qub tub rog saib xyuas kev lag luam Barry Bannister, uas hais tias nws tab tom saib rau kev ua lag luam credit tsis zoo los qhia txog cov khoom lag luam poob qis.

"Cov xwm txheej nyiaj txiag nruj dua tau ua rau lub ntsej muag tsis zoo, tab sis kev lag luam credit yog qhov kev pheej hmoo poob qis, thiab kev xav tau Fed ncua," nws hais rau cov neeg siv khoom hauv ib daim ntawv.

Nyeem: Thaum twg cov khoom lag luam yuav pom qhov qab? Treasury yields xav tau ib tug footing ua ntej, hais tias qhov no strategist.

Cov tickers

Cov no yog cov neeg tshawb nrhiav saum toj kawg nkaus ntawm MarketWatch thaum 6 teev sawv ntxov Eastern:

Random nyeem

Cov neeg coob coob tau tawm hauv London mus plob hav zoov tshiab Elizabeth metro kab.

Traffic jams ntawm Davos:

Rau tag nrho peb cov neeg tuag, cov nqi roj siab yuav txhais tau tias hnub so hauv peb lub taub hau nkaus xwb:

Xav paub kom paub pib thaum ntxov thiab raug kho kom txog thaum qhib lub tswb nrov, tab sis sau npe tuaj ntawm no kom nws tau xa nws ib zaug rau koj lub npov email. Lub emailed yuav xa tawm thaum txog 7: 30 teev sawv ntxov.

Xav paub ntau ntxiv rau hnub tom ntej? Sau npe rau Lub Barron Hnub, tag kis sawv ntxov piav qhia rau cov tub ua lag luam, suav nrog kev tawm tswv yim tshwj xeeb los ntawm Barron thiab MarketWatch sau ntawv.