Tsis quav ntsej Wall Street lub gloom. Cov khoom lag luam ua tau zoo dua thaum cov nyiaj tau los poob: tus kws tshaj lij

Tab sis kev ntshai ntawm kev puas tsuaj loj dua los ntawm cov uas tau tawg hauv Wall Street qhov kev ntxhov siab yuav tsis muaj txiaj ntsig, hais tias peb hu nruab hnub, los ntawm tus thawj tswj hwm kev lag luam ntawm Finom Group, Seth Golden, uas hais tias kev ntshai ntawm kev lag luam loj, nyiaj poob haujlwm, vaj tse thiab kev tsim khoom poob tsis tau tuaj txog, txawm hais tias muaj kev nrawm nrawm ntawm Fed hikes.

Dab tsi cov tub ua lag luam tsis nco qab, thiab tej zaum Wall Street ib yam nkaus yog tias "kev lag luam yog cov kev txo nqi rau kev lag luam uas tau koom nrog kev lag luam tsis tu ncua," hais tias Golden, nyob rau hauv ib qho blog post.

Thaum Wall Street's S&P 500 kev kwv yees yog dav dav, Golden tus kheej cov kev cia siab yog nyob rau sab bullish raws li nws yog lub hom phiaj 4,350 rau thaum kawg ntawm 2023. Thiab thaum Phab ntsa Street txhawj xeeb txog tus nqi nce siab, tus kws tshaj lij muaj lwm daim ntawv qhia qhia tias sib nrug los ntawm outliers, cov nqi siab dua tiag tiag tau ua me ntsis los cuam tshuam kev sib npaug hauv yav dhau los:

Raws li rau cov neeg ntshai kev poob nyiaj txiag, Golden hais tias tiag tiag peb tsis muaj ze li ntawm ib xyoos dhau los thaum thawj tus nqi nce mus, vim muaj kev lag luam tseem muaj zog. Ntawm daim ntawv ntawd, nws kuj swats tawm Wall Street ntshai tias Fed tab tom taug kev mus rau hauv "zoo li cov khoom lag luam muaj txiaj ntsig zoo," raws li daim ntawv qhia Bank of America qhia tau tias yog tus qauv txij li xyoo 1970s:

Golden kuj xav kom debunk kev ntshai tias tus nqi siab dua thiab kev nce nqi siab dua uas txhais tau tias lub lag luam dais ntawm 2022, yuav ua tib yam rau 2023. Ua ntej rov qab-rov qab kev lag luam poob qis yog qhov tsis tshua muaj, thiab tam sim no rov qab mus rau nws qhov pib taw tes, qhov kev lag luam. tiag tiag yog "forward-luv mechanisms."

Nws sau tseg tias cov nyiaj tau los ntawm ib feem tau nce hauv 2018 thiab 2022, tab sis kev lag luam poob hauv ob lub xyoos, uas txhais tau hais tias kev lag luam tau txo qis txoj hauv kev ntawm cov nyiaj tau los ntawm ib qho kev poob qis hauv 2019/2023. Nws daim ntawv qhia hauv qab no qhia tau hais tias kev lag luam tau siab dua 77% ntawm lub sijhawm txij li xyoo 1930, txawm tias cov nyiaj tau los tsis muaj zog:

Golden ntxiv tias ib qho ntawm cov xyoo qis tshaj plaws hauv kev lag luam keeb kwm yog xyoo 1974, thaum EPS tau nce siab dua nyob rau xyoo dhau ib xyoo. Nws hais tias qhov no zoo nkauj yoov nyob rau hauv lub ntsej muag ntawm cov tswv yim zoo li Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson leej twg tau insisted tias cov khoom lag luam tau nqis qis dua vim poob rau pem hauv ntej kev cia siab.

"Kev cia siab tias Fed mus deb dhau lawm, thiab pom tias nws lub hom phiaj tsim nyog los tsav kev lag luam kev lag luam zoo li yog qhov kawg ntawm kev cia siab rau kev ntseeg tias qhov qis qis tshiab tuaj yeem ua tiav thaum lub voj voog tam sim no ntawm 2023."

Raws li cov tub ua lag luam yuav tsum ua dab tsi, Golden hais rau MarketWatch hauv email tias lawv tau yuav S&P 500
SPX,
-0.47%
txij lub Kaum Hli, raws li qhov ntawd yog qhov uas lawv pom kev lag luam hauv qab. Thiab thaum nws tsis xav kom muaj kev caij tsheb zoo dua, tus kws tshaj lij tau hais tias lawv "nrhiav kev thim rov qab hauv qhov loj-cap / loj hlob raws li lub sijhawm los nce qib."

Thaum nws pab neeg tau tsom mus rau S&P 500 qhov kev ua tau zoo, Golden hais tias lawv tab tom saib xyuas qhov tsis muaj zog ntxiv rau ntau lub npe loj, suav nrog Amazon.com.
AMZN,
-2.19%,
PayPal
PIB,
+ 0.30%,
Boeing
BA,
+ 1.49%,
visa
V,
-0.72%,
JPMorgan
JPM,
-0.56%
thiab kev kho mob Xaiv Sector SPDR
XLIV,
-0.17%
mus rau npe rau ob peb tug.

Cov kev lag luam

stocks
DJIA,
+ 0.02%

SPX,
-0.47%

COMP,
-0.66%
yog tilting feem ntau qis dua thaum ntxov raws li daim ntawv cog lus yields
TUBMUSD 10Y,
3.994%

TUBMUSD 02Y,
4.895%
nkag mus. Tus duas
DXY,
-0.47%
thiab cov nqi roj
CL.1,
-0.04%
siab dua, thaum kub
GC00,
-0.07%
poob.

Yog xav paub ntxiv txog kev lag luam hloov tshiab ntxiv rau cov tswv yim ua lag luam ua lag luam rau cov khoom lag luam, kev xaiv thiab crypto, sau npe rau MarketDiem los ntawm Investor's Business Daily. Kuj ua raws li MarketWatch's nyob ua lag luam blog rau txhua qhov kev txiav txim tshiab.

Lub buzz

Target
TSO,
-3.62%
Tshuag yog nce rau ib tug profit yeej thiab cov nyiaj tau los loj hlob, txawm tias tus neeg muag khoom qhov kev xav tau yog qhov tsis zoo. AutoZone
AZO,
-1.21%
Tshuag poob rau ib profit nco, thiab Norwegian Cruise
NCO,
+ 2.16%
shares poob tom qab ib dav-tshaj qhov kev poob. Ua ntej Auto Parts
AAP,
-4.24%
yog vim li cas.

Tus tswv tsev ua yeeb yam thiab meme Tshuag AMC
CMA,
-7.98%,
uas nws shares tau nce 20% rau hnub Monday, HP
HPQ,
-2.24%,
  Rivian
RIVN,
-18.34%,
Novavax
NWS,
-25.92%,
 Thawj Hnub Ci
FSLR,
+ 15.69%
thiab Luminar
LAZR,
+ 1.23%
yuav qhia tom qab kaw.

Zoom shares
ZM,
-6.66%
muaj tom qab ib tug cov nyiaj tau los yeej yeej thiab upbeat forecast los ntawm pawg videoconferencing.

Baytex Zog
BTE,
+ 2.66%
yog yuav Ranger Oil
ROCC,
+ 1.88%
rau $ 2.5 billion, suav nrog cov nuj nqis.

Robinhood
KHOOM NOJ,
-3.38%
muaj tau txais tsab ntawv tshaj tawm txog nws txoj kev lag luam crypto los ntawm Securities thiab Exchange Commission.

Cov neeg lag luam tau ua Tesla
TSLA,
-1.43%
Tus thawj coj Elon Musk tus txiv neej nplua nuj tshaj plaws hauv ntiaj teb dua.

Tswvyim: Vim li cas Tesla tus neeg ua lag luam Ross Gerber thim rov qab los ntawm nws tus neeg ua haujlwm thawb rau lub rooj zaum

Tebchaws Asmeskas kev lag luam-hauv-cov khoom lag luam tsis txaus tau nce 2% rau a peb lub hlis siab ntawm $ 91.5 billion, thaum cov khw muag khoom siab tshaj plaws tau nce 0.3% thiab cov khoom lag luam wholesale poob 0.4%. S&P 500 Case-Shiller tus nqi hauv tsev poob 0.5% thaum lub Kaum Ob Hlis, nws qhov thib rau-txoj kev poob qis, thaum Lub Rooj Sib Tham Pawg Thawj Coj cov ntaub ntawv qhia tias cov neeg siv khoom ntseeg siab poob rau peb lub hlis qis.

Chicago Fed Thawj Tswj Hwm Austan Goolsbee yuav hais lus thaum 2:30 teev tsaus ntuj.

Lub Tsev Dawb hais tias tsoomfwv cov koomhaum muaj 30 hnub rau tshem tawm TikTok. Thiab Feds muaj ceeb toom cov tuam txhab thev naus laus zis tawm tsam "AI hype."

Qhov zoo tshaj plaws ntawm lub vev xaib

Yuav ua li cas ib tug nplua nuj tsev apartment complex nyob rau hauv Qaib Cov Txwv tau los ua av qeeg tuag rau lub hnub qub ncaws pob thiab ntau pua leej lwm tus.

Qhov zoo tshaj plaws US metro cheeb tsam rau thawj lub tsev yuav khoom yog qhov no Texas kis thoob qhov txhia chaw.

Ib xyoo rau hauv Ukraine ua tsov ua rog, nws nyuaj mus nrhiav tsev rau cov tsiaj txhu tseg.

Amazon sai sai no yuav tso cai rau cov neeg ua haujlwm siv cov khoom xaiv raws li collateral rau qiv tsev.

Cov tickers

Cov no yog cov neeg tshawb nrhiav saum toj kawg nkaus ntawm MarketWatch thaum 6 teev sawv ntxov:

Random nyeem

Txhua yam 'liab hnub Monday kawg'?

SE pob: Hip UK musicians rau King Charles lub coronation.

Xav paub kom paub pib thaum ntxov thiab raug kho kom txog thaum qhib lub tswb nrov, tab sis sau npe tuaj ntawm no kom nws tau xa nws ib zaug rau koj lub npov email. Lub emailed yuav xa tawm thaum txog 7: 30 teev sawv ntxov.

Mloog tus Cov Tswv Yim Tshiab Zoo Tshaj Plaws hauv Nyiaj podcast nrog MarketWatch tus neeg sau xov xwm Charles Passy thiab tus kws sau nyiaj txiag Stephanie Kelton