Hu nws lub kua zaub ntsuab ntawm anti-meme stocks. Kuv tab tom xa mus rau cov khoom lag luam qis-volatility 'loj alpha kom deb li deb xyoo no: Txog Lub Cuaj Hli 8, raws li FactSet, iShares MSCI USA Min Vol Factor ETF
USMV,
+ 1.03%
tau zoo dua li S&P 500
SPX,
+ 1.53%
los ntawm 5.7 feem pua cov ntsiab lus. (Kev suav suav muab nyiaj faib rau hauv tus account.)
Meme cov khoom lag luam, qhov sib piv, uas nyob rau qhov kawg ntawm qhov tsis sib haum xeeb, tau txiav txim siab xyoo no txog tam sim no - txawm hais tias muaj kev sib sau xov xwm ntawm no thiab nyob rau ntawm txoj kev. Ib tus neeg sawv cev ntawm 16 cov khoom lag luam nrov meme uas Morningstar tsim hauv 2021 tau lagged S&P 500 xyoo no los ntawm 35.8 feem pua cov ntsiab lus.
Qhov ntawd txhais tau hais tias muaj kev sib kis ntawm ntau tshaj 40 feem pua ntawm cov ntsiab lus hauv ib xyoos rau kev pom zoo ntawm cov khoom lag luam qis qis dua meme cov khoom lag luam.
Puas yog qhov kev ua tau zoo loj no txhais tau tias cov khoom lag luam qis qis dua ib zaug ntxiv? Nws yog ib qho tseem ceeb uas yuav tau nug txij li thaum, txawm tias muaj cov ntaub ntawv ntev ntev, qhov kev khaws cov khoom lag luam no tau tawm tsam ntau xyoo ua ntej xyoo 2022. Qee tus txawm xav tias txoj hauv kev tau ua haujlwm tas mus li.
Rau kev pom, Kuv tau mus cuag Nardin Baker, Tus Thawj Saib Xyuas Kev Ntsuas Tus Kheej rau Txawj Ntse Teb. Baker yog tus kws sau ntawv (nrog rau Robert Haugen lig) ntawm qee qhov kev tshawb fawb thawj zaug uas sau txog keeb kwm kev ua tau zoo ntawm cov khoom lag luam qis. Tej zaum qhov zoo tshaj plaws-paub ntawm cov kev tshawb fawb no - Tsawg Risk Stocks Outperform nyob rau hauv tag nrho cov Observable Markets ntawm lub ntiaj teb no - pom tau hais tias qhov cuam tshuam tsis tshua muaj tshwm sim nyob rau hauv txhua qhov ntawm 33 lub teb chaws sib txawv kev lag luam hauv lub sijhawm txij li xyoo 1990 txog xyoo 2011.
Ntau tus sib cav hais tias cov khoom lag luam tsis tshua muaj hluav taws xob 'loj zoo alpha xyoo no tuaj yeem taug qab mus rau tus nqi lag luam rov qab ua tus thawj coj ntawm kev loj hlob, tom qab ntau xyoo ntawm kev lag luam. Tab sis qhov tsis tuaj yeem piav qhia, Baker sib cav, vim tias cov ntaub ntawv tsis tshua muaj hluav taws xob tam sim no tau hnyav hnyav nrog cov khoom lag luam loj hlob. Yog li, yog tias muaj dab tsi, qhov qis-volatility portfolios 'txoj kev loj hlob qaij tau ua mob rau cov ntaub ntawv no 'rov qab xyoo no.
Qhov no nyob rau hauv lem txhais tau hais tias peb yuav tsum tau saib lwm qhov dua li kev nce nqi siab thiab Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve cov paj laum cov cai rau qhov ua rau cov khoom lag luam qis qis 'alpha xyoo no. Txawm hais tias ob qho tib si feem ntau yog qhov zoo rau cov nqi khoom lag luam 'tus txheeb ze lub zog, lawv yuav tau pab qis-volatility portfolios xyoo no tsuas yog tias lawv tau tswj hwm los ntawm cov khoom muaj nqis. Tab sis, ib zaug ntxiv, lawv tsis yog.
Tsawg-volatility portfolios 'skewness mus rau qhov kawg ntawm kev loj hlob ntawm tus nqi-kev loj hlob spectrum sawv cev rau kev hloov ntawm ntau xyoo dhau los. Tam sim no, piv txwv li, iShares MSCI USA Min Vol Factor ETF's P / E piv yog siab dua S&P 500's, thiab yog li nws qhov nruab nrab tus nqi / phau ntawv piv. Tsib xyoos dhau los ob qho kev ntsuas no tau qis dua.
Qhov qaij ntawm txoj kev loj hlob no qhia txog ib qho ntawm cov txiaj ntsig zoo ntawm lub tswv yim qis-volatility: Nws hloov mus rau kev hloov pauv hauv kev lag luam, hloov mus deb ntawm cov khoom lag luam tsis hloov pauv ntau dua thiab ua rau cov khoom lag luam muaj txiaj ntsig zoo dua. Rau ntau ntawm Asmeskas kev lag luam keeb kwm muaj nuj nqis yog cov piv txwv ruaj khov, tab sis qhov no pib hloov ntau xyoo dhau los.
Lub lowdown ntawm tsawg volatility
Adaptability tsuas yog ib qho laj thawj rau kev nyiam cov khoom lag luam qis. Lwm qhov yog tias txoj hauv kev ua rau koj tuaj yeem koom nrog hauv kev lag luam Tshuag nrog kev ntxhov siab tsawg dua li koj cov phooj ywg sib koom ua lag luam.
Qhov ntawd yog vim qhov txheeb ze volatility txuas ntxiv mus. Ib qho khoom lag luam uas tsis muaj hluav taws xob zoo li txuas ntxiv tsis hloov pauv, thaum cov khoom lag luam siab tsis hloov pauv yuav nyob twj ywm tsis hloov pauv - raws li cov khoom lag luam meme zoo li piav qhia.
Qhov kev xav no tau raug sau tseg ntau xyoo dhau los. Lub iShares MSCI USA Min Vol Factor ETF's trailing 3-xyoo beta tam sim no yog 0.78, piv txwv li. Nws beta yuav yog 1.0 yog tias yav dhau los volatility tsuas yog randomly cuam tshuam rau yav tom ntej volatility.
Qhov tshwj xeeb ntawm cov ntaub ntawv tsis tshua muaj hluav taws xob tsawg yog qhov tseem ceeb tam sim no, Baker sib cav, txij li kev lag luam tsis paub meej yog qhov txawv txav. Tsawg-volatility stocks yuav muab ib qho kev ntsuas ntawm stability nyob rau hauv nruab nrab ntawm lub lag luam chaos.
Lub iShares MSCI USA Min Vol Factor ETF yog qhov tsawg-volatility ETF uas tam sim no muaj feem ntau cov cuab tam raws li kev tswj hwm, ntawm $ 28 billion. Lwm tus suav nrog Invesco S&P 500 Tsawg Volatility ETF
SPLV,
+ 0.61%,
nrog $ 11 billion nyob rau hauv kev tswj hwm, thiab Vanguard US Yam tsawg kawg nkaus Volatility ETF
VFMV,
+ 1.12%,
nrog $ 70 lab.
Mark Hulbert yog cov uas tau ua haujlwm rau MarketWatch li niaj zaus. Nws Hulbert Ratings taug qab cov ntawv xov xwm kev nqis peev uas them tus nqi them tus nqi yuav raug kuaj. Nws hu tau rau ntawm [email tiv thaiv]
ntxiv: Yuav ua li cas qis lub khw lag luam mus? 4 dais scenarios tub ua lag luam yuav tsum nco ntsoov
Plus: Kawm paub yuav ua li cas tuav koj cov nyiaj txiag niaj hnub ntawm MarketWatch's Cov tswv yim tshiab zoo tshaj plaws hauv Nyiaj Festival Lub Cuaj Hlis 21 thiab Cuaj Hlis 22 hauv New York. Koom nrog Carrie Schwab, tus thawj tswj hwm ntawm Charles Schwab Foundation.
Yog tias koj poob koj saj rau cov kua txiv hmab txiv ntoo meme, cov ETFs uas pheej hmoo tsawg yuav ua rau koj xav tsis thoob
Hu nws lub kua zaub ntsuab ntawm anti-meme stocks. Kuv tab tom xa mus rau cov khoom lag luam qis-volatility 'loj alpha kom deb li deb xyoo no: Txog Lub Cuaj Hli 8, raws li FactSet, iShares MSCI USA Min Vol Factor ETF
+ 1.03%
+ 1.53%
USMV,
tau zoo dua li S&P 500
SPX,
los ntawm 5.7 feem pua cov ntsiab lus. (Kev suav suav muab nyiaj faib rau hauv tus account.)
Meme cov khoom lag luam, qhov sib piv, uas nyob rau qhov kawg ntawm qhov tsis sib haum xeeb, tau txiav txim siab xyoo no txog tam sim no - txawm hais tias muaj kev sib sau xov xwm ntawm no thiab nyob rau ntawm txoj kev. Ib tus neeg sawv cev ntawm 16 cov khoom lag luam nrov meme uas Morningstar tsim hauv 2021 tau lagged S&P 500 xyoo no los ntawm 35.8 feem pua cov ntsiab lus.
Qhov ntawd txhais tau hais tias muaj kev sib kis ntawm ntau tshaj 40 feem pua ntawm cov ntsiab lus hauv ib xyoos rau kev pom zoo ntawm cov khoom lag luam qis qis dua meme cov khoom lag luam.
Puas yog qhov kev ua tau zoo loj no txhais tau tias cov khoom lag luam qis qis dua ib zaug ntxiv? Nws yog ib qho tseem ceeb uas yuav tau nug txij li thaum, txawm tias muaj cov ntaub ntawv ntev ntev, qhov kev khaws cov khoom lag luam no tau tawm tsam ntau xyoo ua ntej xyoo 2022. Qee tus txawm xav tias txoj hauv kev tau ua haujlwm tas mus li.
Rau kev pom, Kuv tau mus cuag Nardin Baker, Tus Thawj Saib Xyuas Kev Ntsuas Tus Kheej rau Txawj Ntse Teb. Baker yog tus kws sau ntawv (nrog rau Robert Haugen lig) ntawm qee qhov kev tshawb fawb thawj zaug uas sau txog keeb kwm kev ua tau zoo ntawm cov khoom lag luam qis. Tej zaum qhov zoo tshaj plaws-paub ntawm cov kev tshawb fawb no - Tsawg Risk Stocks Outperform nyob rau hauv tag nrho cov Observable Markets ntawm lub ntiaj teb no - pom tau hais tias qhov cuam tshuam tsis tshua muaj tshwm sim nyob rau hauv txhua qhov ntawm 33 lub teb chaws sib txawv kev lag luam hauv lub sijhawm txij li xyoo 1990 txog xyoo 2011.
Ntau tus sib cav hais tias cov khoom lag luam tsis tshua muaj hluav taws xob 'loj zoo alpha xyoo no tuaj yeem taug qab mus rau tus nqi lag luam rov qab ua tus thawj coj ntawm kev loj hlob, tom qab ntau xyoo ntawm kev lag luam. Tab sis qhov tsis tuaj yeem piav qhia, Baker sib cav, vim tias cov ntaub ntawv tsis tshua muaj hluav taws xob tam sim no tau hnyav hnyav nrog cov khoom lag luam loj hlob. Yog li, yog tias muaj dab tsi, qhov qis-volatility portfolios 'txoj kev loj hlob qaij tau ua mob rau cov ntaub ntawv no 'rov qab xyoo no.
Qhov no nyob rau hauv lem txhais tau hais tias peb yuav tsum tau saib lwm qhov dua li kev nce nqi siab thiab Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve cov paj laum cov cai rau qhov ua rau cov khoom lag luam qis qis 'alpha xyoo no. Txawm hais tias ob qho tib si feem ntau yog qhov zoo rau cov nqi khoom lag luam 'tus txheeb ze lub zog, lawv yuav tau pab qis-volatility portfolios xyoo no tsuas yog tias lawv tau tswj hwm los ntawm cov khoom muaj nqis. Tab sis, ib zaug ntxiv, lawv tsis yog.
Tsawg-volatility portfolios 'skewness mus rau qhov kawg ntawm kev loj hlob ntawm tus nqi-kev loj hlob spectrum sawv cev rau kev hloov ntawm ntau xyoo dhau los. Tam sim no, piv txwv li, iShares MSCI USA Min Vol Factor ETF's P / E piv yog siab dua S&P 500's, thiab yog li nws qhov nruab nrab tus nqi / phau ntawv piv. Tsib xyoos dhau los ob qho kev ntsuas no tau qis dua.
Qhov qaij ntawm txoj kev loj hlob no qhia txog ib qho ntawm cov txiaj ntsig zoo ntawm lub tswv yim qis-volatility: Nws hloov mus rau kev hloov pauv hauv kev lag luam, hloov mus deb ntawm cov khoom lag luam tsis hloov pauv ntau dua thiab ua rau cov khoom lag luam muaj txiaj ntsig zoo dua. Rau ntau ntawm Asmeskas kev lag luam keeb kwm muaj nuj nqis yog cov piv txwv ruaj khov, tab sis qhov no pib hloov ntau xyoo dhau los.
Lub lowdown ntawm tsawg volatility
Adaptability tsuas yog ib qho laj thawj rau kev nyiam cov khoom lag luam qis. Lwm qhov yog tias txoj hauv kev ua rau koj tuaj yeem koom nrog hauv kev lag luam Tshuag nrog kev ntxhov siab tsawg dua li koj cov phooj ywg sib koom ua lag luam.
Qhov ntawd yog vim qhov txheeb ze volatility txuas ntxiv mus. Ib qho khoom lag luam uas tsis muaj hluav taws xob zoo li txuas ntxiv tsis hloov pauv, thaum cov khoom lag luam siab tsis hloov pauv yuav nyob twj ywm tsis hloov pauv - raws li cov khoom lag luam meme zoo li piav qhia.
Qhov kev xav no tau raug sau tseg ntau xyoo dhau los. Lub iShares MSCI USA Min Vol Factor ETF's trailing 3-xyoo beta tam sim no yog 0.78, piv txwv li. Nws beta yuav yog 1.0 yog tias yav dhau los volatility tsuas yog randomly cuam tshuam rau yav tom ntej volatility.
Qhov tshwj xeeb ntawm cov ntaub ntawv tsis tshua muaj hluav taws xob tsawg yog qhov tseem ceeb tam sim no, Baker sib cav, txij li kev lag luam tsis paub meej yog qhov txawv txav. Tsawg-volatility stocks yuav muab ib qho kev ntsuas ntawm stability nyob rau hauv nruab nrab ntawm lub lag luam chaos.
Lub iShares MSCI USA Min Vol Factor ETF yog qhov tsawg-volatility ETF uas tam sim no muaj feem ntau cov cuab tam raws li kev tswj hwm, ntawm $ 28 billion. Lwm tus suav nrog Invesco S&P 500 Tsawg Volatility ETF
+ 0.61% ,
+ 1.12% ,
SPLV,
nrog $ 11 billion nyob rau hauv kev tswj hwm, thiab Vanguard US Yam tsawg kawg nkaus Volatility ETF
VFMV,
nrog $ 70 lab.
Mark Hulbert yog cov uas tau ua haujlwm rau MarketWatch li niaj zaus. Nws Hulbert Ratings taug qab cov ntawv xov xwm kev nqis peev uas them tus nqi them tus nqi yuav raug kuaj. Nws hu tau rau ntawm [email tiv thaiv]
ntxiv: Yuav ua li cas qis lub khw lag luam mus? 4 dais scenarios tub ua lag luam yuav tsum nco ntsoov
Plus: Kawm paub yuav ua li cas tuav koj cov nyiaj txiag niaj hnub ntawm MarketWatch's Cov tswv yim tshiab zoo tshaj plaws hauv Nyiaj Festival Lub Cuaj Hlis 21 thiab Cuaj Hlis 22 hauv New York. Koom nrog Carrie Schwab, tus thawj tswj hwm ntawm Charles Schwab Foundation.
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/if-youve-lost-your-taste-for-highly-juiced-meme-stocks-give-these-low-risk-etfs-a-try-11662715291? siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo