Christopher Zook, Chairman thiab Chief Investment Officer ntawm CAZ Investments
Kev lees paub ntawm CAZ Investments
Christopher Zook xav tias qhov kev pheej hmoo-khoom plig hauv kev ua lag luam yog qhov phem tshaj plaws uas nws tau pom hauv nws 30 xyoo hauv kev lag luam.
Zook, Tus Thawj Coj thiab Tus Thawj Saib Xyuas Kev Lag Luam rau Houston-based CAZ Investments, xav tiv thaiv nws cov neeg siv khoom los ntawm kev muag khoom uas nws ntseeg tias yog kev zam. Hauv kev xam phaj tshwj xeeb no, nws nthuav tawm qee cov tswv yim los tiv thaiv tus neeg ua lag luam cov ntaub ntawv tiv thaiv kev pheej hmoo poob qis.
Kev xam phaj hauv qab no tau raug kho kom muaj cov ntsiab lus thiab meej.
Karl Kaufman: XNUMX Lab tus kiv cua tos koj rau Webtalk! Cov kev pheej hmoo loj tam sim no yog dab tsi?
Christopher Zook: Tej yam yuav muab. Ib qho ua tau yog qhov nyiaj tau los loj hlob vim yog hyperinflation. Qhov ntawd yuav tsim kom muaj kev nce nyiaj hauv cov paj, ua rau muaj kev cuam tshuam loj heev.
Lwm qhov ua tau yog kev lag luam tsis muaj zog, ua rau cov nyiaj tau los poob. Los yog phem dua, peb muaj stagflation, uas peb tsis tau pom txij li xyoo 70s. Nrog stagflation, tsis yog tsuas yog nce nqi xwb tab sis kuj tseem stagnation ntawm tag nrho cov kev yuav khoom ntawm cov neeg siv khoom thiab tus nqi zog ntawm cov tuam txhab. Uas ua rau loj compression ntawm margins.
Margin compression ua rau ntau compression. Qhov ntawd yog qhov muaj peev xwm tiag tiag tam sim no, nyob ntawm seb qhov nyiaj txiag tsunami no tshwm sim li cas thaum Fed pib noj nyiaj tawm ntawm lub cev.
Peb tab tom tiv thaiv peb cov ntaub ntawv pov thawj tiv thaiv qhov muag-tawm. Yog tias kev lag luam nce ntxiv, tus nqi pov hwm yuav dhau los ua qhov tsis zoo nyob rau hauv tag nrho cov tswv yim ntawm txhua yam.
Kaufman: Yuav ua li cas tus neeg ua lag luam yuav tsum tsim lawv cov ntaub ntawv pov thawj?
Zook: Cov neeg ua lag luam tau daig: nws yog lub khw muag khoom kim heev thiab lub khw muag khoom kim heev. Nws yog ib qho nyuaj rau paub qhov twg muab peev. Yog tias koj tsis khwv tau nyiaj rov qab txaus, koj ua rau tsis zoo rau koj lub zog yuav khoom.
Qhov kev sib tw rau cov tub ua lag luam yog qhov uas yuav tsum muab 'cov nyiaj nyab xeeb', qhov twg lawv yuav tau txais tus nqi tiag tiag ntawm kev rov qab los tom qab kev nce nqi. Hmoov tsis zoo, tus qauv qub 60/40 tuag.
Nws yog qhov zoo nyob rau hauv ib puag ncig tus nqi sib txawv, thiab nws zoo li statistically. Tab sis nws tsis ua haujlwm thaum tsis muaj lub sijhawm txaus los tiv thaiv tus kheej los ntawm daim ntawv cog lus, piv rau kev pheej hmoo hauv cov khoom lag luam.
Mus rau nyiaj ntsuab, pom tseeb, yog qhov txaus ntshai tiag tiag ntawm kev xa rov qab.
Cov tub ua lag luam raug tso tseg sim los txiav txim seb qhov twg muaj kev kwv yees thiab kev sib raug tsawg dua. Hmoov tsis zoo, lawv yeej daig. Cov tub ua lag luam yuav tsum tsim kom muaj kev pheej hmoo txo kev pheej hmoo tag nrho los tiv thaiv lawv cov ntaub ntawv hauv lub sijhawm thaum lub khw muag khoom kim tshaj plaws uas nws tau ua.
Hauv lub ntiaj teb tom qab kis thoob ntiaj teb, lawv xav tau cov ntaub ntawv tshaj tawm tom qab kis thoob qhov txhia chaw uas tiv thaiv kev poob qis, tsim qee cov nyiaj ntsuab ntws thiab ua haujlwm tsis zoo thaum lub khw muag khoom.
Tsuas yog ib feem ntawm lawv cov ntaub ntawv khaws tseg, lawv tuaj yeem txo qhov feem ntau ntawm kev pheej hmoo. Lawv yuav muaj kev tiv thaiv zoo nyob rau hauv qhov chaw tiv thaiv zoo li qhov tshwm sim hauv txoj hauv kev uas thaum kawg tsis raug nqi dab tsi.
Xav txog kev yuav nyiaj pov hwm tsev thiab tau them nyiaj rau qhov kev pov hwm ntawd. Nov yog yam uas ib tug neeg yuav tsum saib kom ua tiav.
Kaufman: Yuav ua li cas cov tub ua lag luam pov hwm lawv cov ntaub ntawv pov thawj?
Zook: Hauv kev lag luam credit, muaj cov hnab ris ntawm lub sijhawm. Nws tsis yog vanilla dawb, ib txwm siv, lossis ETF - nws yuav tsum tau muaj sijhawm ntau dua thiab sib txawv. Nws yuav tsum tau tswj hwm los ntawm cov neeg uas tuaj yeem taug kev los ntawm cua daj cua dub uas yuav tsis muaj tshwm sim, vim tias muaj kev lag luam poob qis lossis hyperinflation.
Cov tub ua lag luam yuav tsum nrhiav cov thawj tswj hwm muaj peev xwm los tswj cov feem ntawm cov ntaub ntawv thaum tsim cov cai pov hwm rau lawv cov ntaub ntawv pov thawj uas tiv thaiv lawv tawm tsam lub Peb Hlis 2020 lossis 2008-09 qhov xwm txheej.
Txoj kev ntawd, lawv tuaj yeem pw hmo ntuj thiab tuaj yeem nqis peev feem ntawm lawv cov ntaub ntawv khaws cia txawm li cas los xij lawv xav tau. Lawv yuav paub tias lawv muaj qhov kev pheej hmoo txo qis los ntawm txoj kev uas lawv tau tso ib feem ntawm lawv cov ntaub ntawv.
Muaj lub peev xwm los tsim cov txiaj ntsig zoo yam tsis muaj kev pheej hmoo ntau dhau ntawm kev qiv nyiaj ntiag tug. Muaj lub leveraged qiv lag luam, kev lag luam qiv nyiaj ntiag tug. Nws tsis yog ib txwm muaj kev ncaj ncees ntiag tug; nws yog cov kua ntau dua, lub sijhawm luv luv. Tej zaum lawv yuav tsis muaj peev xwm ua tau txhua hnub, tab sis lawv tsis tas yuav khi lawv cov nyiaj rau 10 lossis 12 xyoo zoo li koj xav tau hauv kev ncaj ncees ntiag tug.
Lawv tuaj yeem xaiv mus rau hauv kev ncaj ncees ntiag tug kom tau txais cov txiaj ntsig zoo thiab cov khoom lag luam rov qab los, tab sis lawv tsuas tuaj yeem ua qhov ntawd nrog ib feem ntawm cov ntaub ntawv lawv txaus siab kom tsis muaj peev txheej.
Rau ib feem ntawm lawv cov ntaub ntawv uas lawv xav kom muaj qee qhov tsim nyog ntawm cov nyiaj tau los, lawv tuaj yeem ua qhov ntawd hauv cov credit ntiag tug lossis qee qhov chaw tsis yog cov nyiaj tau los.
Kaufman: Dab tsi yog cov lus qhia nyiaj txiag zoo tshaj plaws uas koj tau txais?
Zook: Yog koj xav tau yam uas lwm tus tsis muaj, koj yuav tsum txaus siab ua yam uas lwm tus tsis ua.
Qhov ntawd txhais tau tias koj yuav tsum xav txawv, xav sab nraum lub thawv, thiab npaj mus tawm tsam tus qauv. Feem coob ntawm cov neeg hauv ntiaj teb no yeej tsis tau txais qhov lawv xav tau vim lawv yeej tsis kam ua qhov nws yuav tsum tau txais.
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.forbes.com/sites/karlkaufman/2022/03/03/how-investors-can-fend-off-inflation-according-to-christopher-zook/