Yuav ua li cas ib tug Santa Claus rally, los yog tsis muaj, teem rau theem rau cov Tshuag lag luam nyob rau hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg

Nyeem: Lub xyoo xaus rally? Bullish Tshuag-kev ua lag luam qauv tsim los sib tsoo nrog stagflation ntshai

Ib qho kev sib tw Santa Claus kom kaw lub caij 2022-2023 "yuav luv luv nyob rau hauv qhov xwm txheej, thiab peb yuav muab cov txiaj ntsig tau sai dua vim tias tsuas yog yuav tsis muaj qhov kev sib tw ruaj khov nrog Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve tswj cov paj laum siab, "hais tias Eric Sterner, tus thawj coj peev ntawm Apollon Wealth Management, uas tswj hwm $ 3.1 nphom los ntawm Mount Pleasant, SC

"Nws yuav zoo li tag nrho ntawm 2023 ua ntej kev nce nqi nqis los thiab, nyob rau sab saum toj ntawm qhov ntawd, peb muaj kev hloov kho nyiaj tau los loj uas yuav tsum tshwm sim," Sterner tau hais hauv xov tooj. Nws hais tias cov nyiaj tau los ntawm ib feem tuaj yeem poob 15% mus rau 20% ntawm qhov nruab nrab, piv rau tam sim no kwv yees nce ntawm 4% mus rau 5% rau xyoo tom ntej, thiab tias S&P 500 tuaj yeem rov ntsuas nws lub Kaum Hlis qis ntawm ib ncig ntawm 3,500 hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm 2023 ua ntej. xaus lub xyoo tiaj tus.

Cov khoom lag luam tau raug kev txom nyem hauv 2022, nrog S&P 500, Nasdaq thiab Russell 2000 txhua qhov tshaj tawm ob tus lej feem pua poob qis, raws li Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve txuas ntxiv mus nce cov paj laum kom ntes kev nce nqi khiav ntawm plaub caug xyoo siab. Dow kev lag luam tau zoo dua, tab sis tseem tseem nqis 8.6% xyoo rau hnub Friday.

Nyeem: Phab ntsa Street cov khoom lag luam kev kwv yees rau xyoo 2022 tau tawm los ntawm qhov dav tshaj plaws txij li xyoo 2008: Puas yog xyoo tom ntej yuav txawv?

Thaum cov khoom lag luam tau txais txiaj ntsig tsis tuaj yeem tshwm sim thaum lub sijhawm Santa ncab, S&P 500 tau tawm tsuas yog 0.53% qhov nruab nrab nce hauv thawj peb lub hlis twg uas ua raws, raws li Dow Jones Market Data. Qhov ntawd yog qhov sib piv rau feem ntau ntawm lub sijhawm thaum muaj nyiaj so koobtsheej-lub caij nyoog, nrog rau qhov Performance index ua qhov nruab nrab 2.49% thawj peb lub hlis twg ua ntej tom qab ntawd.

Xyoo no "yog ib tus neeg sib tw zoo rau kev sib tw Santa Claus, muab qhov phem npaum li cas ntawm kev muag khoom xyoo no, tab sis qhov ntawd tsis tau txhais hais tias koj yuav muaj lub xyoo zoo tom ntej, qhov nruab nrab," said Eric Diton, Boca Raton, Fla.-based tus thawj tswj hwm thiab tus thawj coj tswj hwm ntawm The Wealth Alliance, uas saib xyuas $ 1.5 nphom hauv kev tswj hwm thiab kev sib koom ua lag luam. "Qhov kev sib raug zoo dua yog lub Ib Hlis qhov taw qhia, uas yog tias koj lub Ib Hlis zoo, koj muaj feem ntau dua ntawm kev muaj xyoo zoo."

"Yog tias cov nyiaj khwv tau los ntawm cov tuam txhab tuaj yeem tuav tau tom qab qhov kev nruj heev los ntawm Fed thiab txo qis zoo nkauj ntawm cov nyiaj, cov khw lag luam yuav tsum muaj xyoo zoo nkauj," nws hais hauv xov tooj. “Yog tias cov nyiaj khwv tau los sib npaug, peb yuav muaj lwm ceg qis. Kuv lub plab hais tias peb tuaj yeem muaj kev lag luam me me, tab sis kuv zoo nkauj zoo nkauj txog ib nrab xyoo 2023: Fed yuav tsum tau ua kom nce nqi los ntawm qhov ntawd, ua rau muaj kev kub ntxhov ntawm kev ua lag luam. "

Dow Jones Muaj Nruab Nrab
DJIA,
+ 0.53%
thiab S&P 500 Index muaj txhua qhov kev lag luam siab dua yuav luag 80% ntawm lub sijhawm nyob rau lub sijhawm xya hnub so txij li xyoo 1950, nce qhov nruab nrab ntawm 1.38% thiab 1.32% raws li Dow Jones Market Data. Lub Nasdaq Composite
COMP,
+ 0.21%
tau pauv ntau dua 78% ntawm lub sijhawm txij li xyoo 1971, rau 1.81% qhov nruab nrab nce, thaum Russell 2000
ROV,
+ 0.39%
tau nce 71% ntawm lub sijhawm txij li xyoo 1987 thiab nce 1.5% ntawm qhov nruab nrab.

Yog tias Dow industrials thiab S&P 500 ua tiav siab dua rau 2022-2023 lub caij, qhov ntawd yuav yog lawv qhov kev sib tw thib xya ncaj nraim ntawm Santa Claus thiab lawv qhov kev sib tw ntev tshaj plaws txij li txoj hlua ntawm yim uas tshwm sim ntawm 1969-1970 thiab 1976-1977.

Cov ntaub ntawv los ntawm FactSet qhia tau hais tias cov kws tshuaj ntsuam tseem muaj kev cia siab zoo txog cov kev taw qhia ntawm Asmeskas cov khoom lag luam hauv 2023: Txog hnub Wednesday, lawv qhov kev kwv yees nruab nrab rau qhov twg S&P 500 yuav yog 6 txog 12 lub hlis txij li tam sim no yog 4,517.29 - nce los ntawm hnub Friday kaw tsuas yog txaj muag ntawm 3,845. Rau Nasdaq Composite, lawv qhov kwv yees nruab nrab yog 13,577.30 piv rau qhov ze ntawm 10,497.86 rau hnub Friday.

Nyeem: Phab ntsa Street cov khoom lag luam kev kwv yees rau xyoo 2022 tau tawm los ntawm qhov dav tshaj plaws txij li xyoo 2008: Puas yog xyoo tom ntej yuav txawv?
 
Muab qhov tsis txaus ntawm cov xov xwm tseem ceeb ntawm kev lag luam txav nruab nrab ntawm tam sim no thiab xyoo tas los, "cov xwm txheej tau zoo meej rau kev sib tw tam sim no uas tuaj yeem cuam tshuam nrog qhov peb ib txwm muaj nyob rau lub sijhawm no ntawm lub xyoo," Keith Buchanan, tus thawj coj loj ntawm cov khoom lag luam ntawm GLOBALT Kev nqis peev hauv Atlanta, uas saib xyuas $ 2.5 billion. "Nrog kev pheej hmoo nyiaj txiag poob qis, kev xav tau raug ntaus zoo nkauj thiab muaj kev xav tsis zoo hauv kev lag luam. Thaum qhov ntawd yog qhov teeb meem, nws feem ntau tuaj yeem teeb tsa ib qho kev sib tw. "

GLOBALT tseem muaj kev saib xyuas me ntsis hauv nws txoj haujlwm, thaum tos rau lub sijhawm los piv rau qhov kev tawm tsam hnyav dua, Buchanan tau hais hauv xov tooj. Lub caij no, cov neeg koom nrog kev ua lag luam tab tom tos qhov nws hu ua "blue-skies" scenario, nyob rau hauv qhov kev nce nqi nce ntxiv hauv 2023 thiab Fed engineers qhov muag muag los ntawm kev ua lag luam qeeb yam tsis cuam tshuam ntau lab tus tib neeg tawm haujlwm.

"Kev tsis muaj Santa Claus rally yuav teeb tsa lub suab thaum ntxov hauv 2023 ntawm kev lag luam xav tau qee qhov lossis ib qho kev cia siab rau kev sib sau ua ke nyob rau hauv lub ntsej muag ntawm ntau tus kws tshawb fawb nyiaj txiag pom los: kev lag luam poob qis," nws hais. Xwb, lub rooj sib tham Santa Claus uas ua tiav "tsis tas yuav txhais tau tias 2023 yuav yog xyoo rov qab, tab sis yuav pab tau lub Ib Hlis tas los."

Tsis tas li ntawd saib: Puas yog 2023 stock-market rebound in store after 2022 selloff? Dab tsi keeb kwm hais txog rov qab-rau-rov qab poob xyoo.

Daim ntawv qhia nyiaj txiag yog lub teeb nyob rau hnub so-shortened lub lim tiam ua ntej. Lub khw lag luam tau kaw rau hnub Monday hauv kev ua raws li Christmas Day, uas poob rau hnub Sunday, thiab raug kaw dua thaum Lub Ib Hlis 2 nyob rau hauv kev ua koob tsheej ntawm Xyoo Tshiab Hnub so.

Hnub Tuesday, Kaum Ib Hlis cov ntaub ntawv ntawm kev lag luam hauv cov khoom yuav dhau los, nrog rau Lub Kaum Hli Ntuj S&P Case-Shiller US tus nqi tsev ntsuas thiab FHFA US lub tsev nqi ntsuas.

Hnub Wednesday nqa cov khoom muag khoom muag hauv tsev rau lub Kaum Ib Hlis. Hnub Thursday, txhua lub limtiam thawj qhov kev thov tsis ua haujlwm raug tso tawm, ua raws hnub tom qab los ntawm Chicago tus thawj tswj hwm kev yuav khoom rau lub Kaum Ob Hlis.