Kev Lag Luam Hauv Tsev Cov Khoom Lag Luam Thiab Cov Txheej Txheem Rau Q4 2022

Ntsiab Cai

• Kev ua lag luam vaj tsev tau qeeb qeeb tom qab lub sijhawm ntev, kub khiav, ib feem ntawm qhov kev hloov pauv tsis ntev los no los ntawm Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve.
• Raws li kev nce nyiaj nce siab, Fed yuav zoo li nce nyiaj paj ntxiv. Nyob rau hauv lem, qhov no ntxiv cuam tshuam rau kev thov rau kev yuav tsev tshiab hauv txoj kev tsis zoo.
• Tej zaum peb yuav nyob rau pem hauv ntej kawg ntawm kev hloov pauv vaj tsev lag luam lub voj voog thiab tejzaum nws nyob hauv ib qho vaj tse kev txom nyem.
• Saib cov npe ntawm cov tsev lag luam cov khoom lag luam hauv qab no los pab taug qab thiab kho koj cov ntaub ntawv rau qhov sib txawv no.

Tsev Ua Lag Luam Kev Ua Haujlwm YTD

Thoob plaws xyoo 2021, kev lag luam vaj tsev tau kub kub. Nrog ntau lab tus neeg yuav khoom nrhiav qhov chaw hu mus rau tsev, sau cov nqi qiv qis qis tau ua rau cov nplaim taws. Yog tias leej twg koj paub tab tom sim yuav lub tsev nyob rau lub sijhawm no, koj yuav zoo siab nrog cov dab neeg ntawm kev tshawb nrhiav tsis kawg rau cov tsev npau suav thiab kev sib tw sib tw sib tw.

Kev loj hlob ntawm cov nqi tsev yog qeeb. Thiab, raws li kev tshawb fawb los ntawm cov National Association ntawm cov vaj tse, kev muag khoom hauv tsev poob qis. Raws li lub Xya Hli 2022, kev muag khoom hauv tsev tam sim no tau nqis 5.9% txij lub Rau Hli 2022 thiab qis dua 20.2% ntawm ib xyoo dhau los.

Cov ntaub ntawv Kev Muag Khoom Nyob Hauv Tsev ntsuas kev muag khoom thiab cov nqi ntawm cov tsev nyob ib leeg tam sim no rau lub teb chaws tag nrho, thiab muab kev tawg rau thaj tsam sab hnub poob, Midwest, South, thiab Northeast cheeb tsam ntawm lub tebchaws.

Cov paj laum thiab vaj tse xav tau

Cov neeg muag khoom tsis pom qhov kev thov hnyav uas thawb cov nqi vaj tsev nyob saum ntuj-siab. Raws li cov neeg yuav khoom ntsib lub sijhawm tsis paub txog kev lag luam, kev thov tau pib poob.

Ib qho ntawm cov tsav tsheb tseem ceeb ntawm kev lag luam vaj tsev qeeb yog cov paj laum ntau dua. Xyoo 2022, Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve tau pib nce cov paj laum los tiv thaiv kev nce nqi siab. Nrog Consumer Price Index, qhov taw qhia tseem ceeb ntawm kev nce nqi, zaum ntawm 8.5% thaum Lub Xya Hli 2022, zoo li Fed yuav nce cov paj laum ntxiv.

Feem ntau, nce tus paj laum zoo li thawb kev thov rau tsev. Tias yog vim li cas cov paj laum ntau dua ua rau nws nyuaj rau cov neeg yuav khoom kom them nyiaj hauv tsev. Tom qab tag nrho, tus paj laum ntau dua txhais tau tias kev them nyiaj ntau dua txhua hli.

Piv txwv li, cia peb hais tias tus neeg yuav khoom tab tom nrhiav kev yuav tsev nrog $ 200,000 nqi tsev. Yog tias lawv kaw hauv 3% tus paj laum tshaj li 30-xyoo lub sijhawm, lawv cov nyiaj qiv nyiaj txhua hli yuav yog $843. Tab sis yog tias lawv tsuas tuaj yeem tau txais 6% cov paj laum, lawv cov nqi tsev yuav yog $ 1,199. Nrog rau qhov nce ntxiv, ntau tus neeg yuav khoom hauv tsev tsuas yog tus nqi tawm ntawm lub khw.

Raws li cov paj laum nce, nws muaj peev xwm hais tias qhov kev thov hauv tsev lag luam yuav poob mus ntxiv.

Cov nqi vaj tsev puas siab dhau lawm?

Qhov nruab nrab, qhov kev thov rau kev yuav tsev tau poob rau lub hlis tsis ntev los no. Tab sis qhov ntawd tsis muaj tseeb nyob txhua qhov chaw. Qee lub tsev lag luam tseem tab tom loj hlob ntawm qhov nrawm heev.

Piv txwv li, Salt Lake City lub tsev muag khoom tau nce 15.2% YTD, thiab Boise City, Idaho, tau pom nws lub tsev muag khoom nce 12.9% xyoo no. Tab sis cov dej ntws zoo li tau hloov pauv thiab lwm lub khw muag khoom tau pom kev kho ntau dua. Piv txwv li, Raleigh thiab Austin tab tom pom kev qeeb qeeb.

Thaum qee lub tsev lag luam tab tom taug kev saum ntuj, lwm tus tau poob rov qab los rau hauv ntiaj teb. Nrog rau qhov ntawd, nws muaj peev xwm hais tias cov nqi vaj tsev tsuas yog siab dhau lawm. Nws yuav yog ib qho tseem ceeb uas yuav tsum ua tib zoo saib xyuas cov ntaub ntawv muag khoom hauv tsev, cov ntaub ntawv khaws cia hauv vaj tse, qhov nruab nrab ntev ntawm cov npe tshiab nyob rau hauv kev ua lag luam ua ntej kaw, thiab 30 xyoo cov paj laum rau koj lub lag luam hauv zos. Cov xwm txheej no yuav cuam tshuam txog kev pheej yig thiab nqi tsev hauv koj cheeb tsam.

Cov khoom lag luam cuam tshuam los ntawm kev lag luam vaj tsev

Lub xeev ntawm kev ua lag luam vaj tse tsis paub tseeb. Tab sis ib yam yog qhov tseeb, kev hloov pauv hauv kev lag luam vaj tsev yuav cuam tshuam rau kev xaiv nruj ntawm cov khoom lag luam. Raws li kev lag luam vaj tsev ebbs thiab ntws, cov khoom lag luam hauv qab no yuav raug cuam tshuam.

• Redfin (RDFN): Redfin pom qee qhov kev sib kis tau zoo heev. Tab sis feem ntau ntawm qhov ntawd tau raug tshem tawm los ntawm qhov tsis paub tseeb ntawm kev ua lag luam tam sim no.
• Zillow (ZG): Raws li cov neeg yuav khoom pib txias ntawm lub tsev lag luam, Zillow lub hom phiaj kev lag luam pib poob qis. Nrog rau qhov ntawd, nws tuaj yeem teem sijhawm qeeb rau lub tuam txhab.
• Tsev Depot (HD): Thaum cov neeg yuav tsev tshiab muaj ntau, Lub Tsev Depot nyob ntawd los pab lawv pib ntawm cov phiaj xwm txhim kho tsev, kev saib xyuas cov nyom, cov rooj tog zaum, cov khoom siv hloov pauv, thiab lwm yam. Tsawg dua cov tswv tsev tshiab feem ntau txhais tau tias muag qis dua rau lub khw no.
• Lowes (LOW): Zoo li Lub Tsev Depot, tus neeg muag khoom loj no rau cov tswv tsev yuav pom qhov kev xav tau poob qis, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog cov neeg yuav khoom hauv tsev thawj zaug uas tsis xaiv los kho lawv qhov chaw tam sim no.
• Kev nqis peev hauv vaj tse (REITs): REITs raug khi ncaj qha rau kev lag luam vaj tsev. Yog tias kev lag luam vaj tsev txias, REITs tuaj yeem raug kev txom nyem ib yam nkaus. Tab sis lub tswv yim ntawm REIT yuav txiav txim siab hom thiab qhov hnyav ntawm qhov cuam tshuam ntawd.
• American Tower Corporation (AMT): Hauv kev lag luam vaj tsev vaj tse, AMT tuaj yeem txhawb nqa los ntawm qhov tsis ntev los no Daim ntawv cog lus xauj tsev nrog Verizon rau nws qhov chaw sib txuas lus.
• Public Storage (PSA): Public Storage muab cov chaw khaws cia rau tus kheej thoob plaws Teb Chaws Asmeskas Nws muaj raws li ib qho ntawm cov tswv tsev loj tshaj plaws hauv ntiaj teb txhais tau tias kev lag luam vaj tsev yuav muaj kev cuam tshuam.

Raws li koj xav txog cov khoom lag luam muaj peev xwm ntxiv rau koj cov ntaub ntawv, nws yog ib lub tswv yim zoo los coj cov kev lag luam vaj tsev mus rau hauv tus account. Txawm hais tias tsis muaj leej twg tuaj yeem kwv yees lub neej yav tom ntej, nws yog qhov tseeb tias kev lag luam vaj tsev tau qeeb hauv feem ntau ntawm lub tebchaws.

kab hauv qab

Kev ua lag luam vaj tse nyob ib puag ncig peb, zoo li lwm yam kev lag luam. Txhua tus neeg ua lag luam saib lub tsev lag luam tsis tuaj yeem pab tab sis pom qhov cuam tshuam ntawm kev lag luam tsis paub tseeb. Raws li kev nce nyiaj nce siab, Fed yuav zoo li nce nyiaj paj ntxiv. Nyob rau hauv lem, qhov no cuam tshuam kev thov rau kev yuav tsev nyob rau hauv ib tug tsis zoo txoj kev. Tej zaum peb yuav nyob rau pem hauv ntej kawg ntawm kev hloov pauv vaj tsev lag luam lub voj voog thiab tejzaum nws nyob hauv ib qho vaj tse kev txom nyem.

Yog tias koj tab tom nrhiav kev pab ntxiv tsim tawm thiab kho koj cov ntaub ntawv, thov mus saib Q.ai. Koj tuaj yeem siv cov khoom siv peev los tsim cov ntaub ntawv uas qhia txog koj qhov kev pheej hmoo tshwj xeeb thiab cov peev txheej ntawm kev txaus siab. Yog tias koj txhawj xeeb txog kev lag luam volatility, koj tuaj yeem qhib Kev Tiv Thaiv Portfolio txhua lub sijhawm los tiv thaiv koj cov txiaj ntsig thiab txo koj cov kev poob, txawm tias koj nqis peev hauv kev lag luam dab tsi.

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