Tojsiab
Cov vaj tsev tshiab pib poob poob poob qis ntau dua li cov kws lag luam xav tau - thiab rau lub hlis thib ob ncaj nraim - nyob rau lub Tsib Hlis, raws li cov ntaub ntawv tshaj tawm hnub Thursday, ntxiv rau cov cim qhia txog kev hloov pauv sai sai hauv kev lag luam vaj tsev loj hlob.
"Qhov no tseem yog theem pib ntawm kev hloov pauv vaj tsev," hais tias ib tus kws tshaj lij, kwv yees qhov yuav los … [+]
© 2022 Bloomberg nyiaj txiag LP
Cov Lus Tseem Ceeb
Tus naj npawb ntawm tsev nyob pib, lossis cov tsev tshiab uas pib tsim, poob 14.4% mus txog 1.5 lab lub hli dhau los los ntawm 1.8 lab nyob rau lub Plaub Hlis - qis dua qhov kev kwv yees nyiaj txiag hu rau ze li ntawm 1.7 lab pib, Lub Chaw Saib Xyuas Kev Suav Pej Xeem qhia Hnub Thursday.
Daim ntawv tso cai hauv tsev kuj poob ntau dua li qhov xav tau, los ntawm tsawg dua 1.7 lab hauv lub Tsib Hlis txawm tias kev cia siab tias lawv yuav nyob twj ywm ncaj nraim txij lub Plaub Hlis ntawm kwv yees li 1.8 lab.
Hauv cov lus xa email rau hnub Thursday, Pantheon Macro tus kws tshawb fawb nyiaj txiag Ian Shepherdson tau hais tias qhov kev poob qis dua li qhov kev cia siab tau poob rau "nrawm thiab nrawm" poob rau hauv tsev muag khoom tshiab ntsib cov neeg tsim khoom, uas "tau tsim dua" txij thaum ntxov 2021 los nqis peev rau. thov uas tam sim no "nyob rau hauv lub caij nplooj zeeg dawb" thiab yuav tsum qeeb kev tsim kho kom tsis txhob muaj kev cuam tshuam loj rau cov txiaj ntsig.
Shepherdson hais ntxiv tias "Qhov no tseem yog cov theem pib ntawm kev hloov vaj tsev nyob," Shepherdson hais ntxiv, kwv yees ob peb lub hlis tom ntej no yuav ua rau muaj kev poob qis hauv kev tsim vaj tsev ntxiv vim tias kev nce nqi ntxiv ua rau tsev yuav kim dua thiab thawb kev thov qis dua.
Cov khoom lag luam hauv tsev tau muaj kev cuam tshuam tom qab cov ntaub ntawv, nrog rau S&P Homebuilders Xaiv Kev Lag Luam Index, uas suav nrog cov tsev tsim khoom loj xws li Masco thiab Owens Corning, poob ntau dua 4% hnub Thursday thaum S&P 500 poob 3%.
Ib qho chaw ci ntsa iab hauv tsab ntawv ceeb toom: Kev ua tiav hauv tsev tau nce mus rau qib siab tshaj txij li xyoo 2007, uas yuav tsum pab tus nqi tsev nce ntxiv-clocking nyob rau hauv ceev tshaj plaws pace lub xyoo pua no - qeeb los ntawm kwv yees li 20% mus rau ib tus lej qis thaum kawg ntawm lub xyoo tom ntej, hais tias Comerica Bank tus thawj coj nyiaj txiag Bill Adams.
Tus Keeb Kwm Tseem Ceeb
Keeb kwm cov nyiaj khaws cia siab thiab kev ntsuas ntawm tsoomfwv tau pab cuam tshuam kev yuav khoom hauv tsev thaum muaj kev sib kis, tab sis cov cim qhia ntawm kev poob qis sai sai. tshwm sim raws li Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve embarks rau nws feem ntau Txhoj puab heev paj laum-hloov voj voog nyob rau hauv ob xyoo caum. Raws li cov ntaub ntawv tau tshaj tawm lub hli tas los, kev muag khoom hauv tsev tseem nyob rau lub hlis thib rau hauv lub Plaub Hlis mus rau theem qis tshaj nyob rau hauv ze li ntawm kaum xyoo, thaum lub tsev muag khoom tshiab tau poob ze li 17% txij lub Peb Hlis. Tsis ntev los no, qhov nruab nrab cov paj laum ntawm cov npe nrov 30-xyoo ruaj khov spiked 5.5% mus rau ntau dua 6.2% lub lim tiam no - qib siab tshaj txij li xyoo 2008 nyiaj txiag teebmeem.
Dab Tsi Los Saib
Fed tus nqi nce hnub Wednesday yog "zoo li yuav ua kom qeeb ntawm kev lag luam vaj tsev" thiab tshem tawm cov haujlwm tsim kho, hais tias Mace McCain, tus thawj coj peev ntawm Texas-based Frost Investment Advisors. "Peb yuav saib xyuas txoj haujlwm qhib thiab tso tawm haujlwm ze vim tias Fed txuas ntxiv nruj rau kev lag luam qeeb."
Kev Nkag Siab Hais
"[Fed Chair Jerome] Powell nag hmo tau hais tias kev lag luam vaj tsev tab tom rov pib dua, tab sis nws muaj ntau dua li ntawd," hais tias Shepherdson, hais txog cov lus pom Powell tau ua tom qab tsim cov paj laum loj tshaj plaws hauv 28 xyoo rau hnub Wednesday. Hais lus rau cov neeg sau xov xwm, Fed lub rooj zaum tau hais tias kev nce nqi tsev yuav tsis nyob ntev, hais tias "cov neeg yuav khoom hauv tsev xav tau kev rov pib dua… Qhov zoo tshaj plaws, peb ua peb txoj haujlwm nyob rau hauv ib txoj hauv kev uas lub tsev lag luam nyob hauv qhov chaw tshiab thiab vaj tse thiab credit muaj nyob ntawm. qib tsim nyog."
ntxiv nyeem ntawv
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonathanponciano/2022/06/16/housing-market-in-free-fall-as-new-construction-plummets-heres-when-reset-could-cool- tus nqi/