Kev Ua Lag Luam Vaj Tsev ntsib qhov kev pheej hmoo loj zuj zus ntawm ntau xyoo tawg raws li Kev Tsim Kho Tsev Tshiab Craters

Tojsiab

Cov vaj tsev tshiab pib poob poob poob qis dua li cov kws tshawb fawb txog nyiaj txiag tau npaj rau lub Xya Hli - thiab mus rau theem qis tshaj hauv ntau tshaj li ib xyoos - raws li cov neeg tsim vaj tsev tau cuam tshuam nrog kev xav tau qis dua rau cov tsev tshiab, thiab txawm hais tias qee cov kws tshaj lij tseem cia siab tias kev lag luam yuav yog vim kev rov qab sai, lwm tus tsuas yog nce bearish.

Cov Lus Tseem Ceeb

Tus naj npawb ntawm cov vaj tsev pib, lossis cov tsev tshiab uas tau pib tsim, plunged 9.6% mus txog 1.4 lab lub hli dhau los txawm hais tias qhov nruab nrab ntawm kev lag luam kwv yees kwv yees ntau dua 1.5 lab pib, Lub Chaw Saib Xyuas Kev Suav Pej Xeem qhia Tuesday.

Cov ntawv tso cai hauv tsev tau me ntsis siab dua qhov kev cia siab ntawm ze li ntawm 1.7 lab, tab sis poob txog 1.3% txij lub Rau Hli thiab tau nqis los ntawm kwv yees li 1.8 lab hauv lub Plaub Hlis.

"Cov neeg tsim khoom tau teb rau qhov kev thov rov qab," Odeta Kushi, tus kws tshaj lij nyiaj txiag ntawm First American, tau hais hauv email, piav qhia tias kev nce nqi tsev qiv nyiaj tau ua rau muaj kev pheej yig thiab "ua rau cov neeg yuav khoom yuav zaum ntawm sab xis."

Nyob rau hauv ib qho chaw ci ntsa iab, tso cai rau ntau tsev neeg tau nce 2.8% lub hli tas los, pab txhawb qhov kev poob qis ntawm 4.3% hauv ib tsev neeg, thiab Kushi ntseeg tias tus nqi qis dua thiab cov nqi xauj tsev tseem yuav txhawb nqa cov neeg tsim khoom los tsim ntau tsev neeg. units, uas feem ntau xauj tawm.

Txawm li cas los xij, lwm tus tau ceev faj ntau dua: Fitch Ratings tau tshaj tawm tsab ntawv ceeb toom rau hnub Tuesday thaum sawv ntxov tias qhov yuav muaj kev poob qis hauv Asmeskas cov tsev nyob tau nce siab vim cov tsev tau nce ntxiv. tsis muaj nqi rau cov neeg Amelikas.

Lub tuam txhab kwv yees tsuas yog ib qho "nruab nrab rub rov qab" hauv kev lag luam vaj tsev uas cim los ntawm ib nrab-tus lej poob hauv kev ua haujlwm (xws li pib thiab muag tsev tshiab) xyoo tom ntej, tab sis nws kuj lees paub txog kev ua vaj tsev yuav poob li 30% lossis ntau dua. Lub sijhawm ntau xyoo nyob rau hauv qhov xwm txheej tsis zoo, thawb cov nqi tsev hauv nruab nrab ntawm 10% mus rau 15%.

Kev Nkag Siab Hais

"Tam sim no tag nrho cov vaj tsev nyob tam sim no nyob rau hauv kev thim rov qab," hais tias Pantheon Macro tus thawj coj nyiaj txiag Ian Shepherdson, sau tseg tias cov ntaub ntawv tshiab qhia tau hais tias ntau tsev neeg pib tau nce siab tom qab tau nce txij li thaum ntxov 2021 thiab nce mus txog qib hauv kev tsim kho. Shepherdson kwv yees qhov kev poob qis hauv kev tsim kho kev lag luam tseem yuav poob mus txog thaum ntxov 2023, vim tias daim ntawv thov qiv nyiaj tau poob qis 30% los ntawm lub Kaum Ob Hlis Ntuj thiab tseem tsis tau pom qhov hauv qab.

Tus Keeb Kwm Tseem Ceeb

Keeb kwm cov nyiaj khaws cia siab thiab cov paj laum qis tau pab cuam tshuam kev yuav khoom hauv tsev thaum muaj kev sib kis, tab sis kev lag luam vaj tsev tau txias tom qab Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve pib nce cov paj paj xyoo no. Cov ntaub ntawv tshiab dhau los tsuas yog ib hnub tom qab National Association of Home Builders qhia Cov neeg tsim vaj tsev cog qoob loo tau poob mus rau theem qis tshaj txij li lub Tsib Hlis 2020 raws li kev loj hlob tsis tu ncua ntawm cov nqi tsim kho thiab cov nqi qiv nyiaj siab tseem ua rau kev lag luam tsis muaj zog. Hauv tsab ntawv tshaj tawm, NAHB Tus Thawj Saib Xyuas Nyiaj Txiag Robert Dietz tau hais tias kev ua lag luam tau nkag mus rau "kev lag luam kev lag luam," thiab kwv yees tias tsev neeg ib leeg pib yuav poob qis hauv 2022 thawj zaug txij li xyoo 2011.

Dab Tsi Los Saib

Tseem muaj ntau cov ntaub ntawv vaj tse uas yuav raug tso tawm rau lub lim tiam no. Hnub Thursday, National Association of Realtors yuav tshaj tawm cov ntaub ntawv ntawm kev muag tsev uas twb muaj lawm txij lub hli dhau los. Qhov nruab nrab, cov kws tshawb fawb kwv yees kwv yees kev muag khoom txhua xyoo poob txog 6% rau 5.1 lab.

ntxiv nyeem ntawv

Kev Lag Luam Kev Lag Luam Hauv Tsev Nyob Ntawm No: Cov Neeg Tsim Tsev Hauv Tsev Slash Tus Nqi Raws Li Cov Neeg Yuav Tsum Tso Npe Cov Ntawv Cog Lus, Cov Nqi Them Nqi Ruaj (Forbes)

Kev tsim vaj tsev tshiab ua kom poob dej raws li vaj tsev xav tau 'ceev' ​​qhuav (Forbes)