Kuv txiv yug xyoo 1936 hauv Brooklyn. Nws tau mus kawm Erasmus High School, tau txais daim ntawv kawm tiav hauv chemical engineering los ntawm Brooklyn Polytechnic High School thiab tom qab ntawd mus kawm kho hniav hauv New York University. Nws yog tus neeg ncaws pob muaj zog thiab nyiam ntaus pob tesniv, ntaus golf thiab-feem ntau ntawm tag nrho-kev caij skiing. Tsuas yog txhua yam uas kuv txiv xav ua, nws ua tau zoo. Tab sis nws tsis yog tsis muaj flaws.
Thaum xyoo 1960 thiab thaum ntxov xyoo 1970, kuv txiv muaj ib tus phooj ywg stockbroker uas nws tau yuav shares, feem ntau hauv cov tuam txhab tshuaj blue-chip uas nws qhuas. Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, nws muaj Bristol Myers
BMY,
Glaxo, Pfizer
PFE, cov
thiab Schering-Plough. Tab sis nws ib txwm tuav txoj haujlwm tsis zoo hauv nws cov khoom lag luam, Merck
MRK,
Tom qab 30 xyoo ntawm kev kho hniav thiab ua ntej muaj hnub nyoog 60 xyoo, nws tau tso tseg kev xyaum ua haujlwm puv sijhawm kom txav mus rau Vermont, qhov chaw nws muaj tsev thib ob. Nyob ib ncig ntawm lub sijhawm no - nyob rau nruab nrab-1990s - kuv txiv tau hais rau kuv tias, ua rau nws poob siab, nws tus account brokerage nyuam qhuav ntaus cov khawv koob $1 lab tus lej. Nws yeej tsis npau suav tias nws yuav pom daim duab ntawd, uas - rau nws - txhais tau tias kev nyab xeeb rau nws lub neej.
Nyeem: Puas yog leej twg yuav cov khoom lag luam?
Kuv tsis coj kev xyiv fab hauv kev tua ib tog kev xav. Tab sis lub CPA nyob rau hauv kuv yuav tsum tau nug nws yog hais tias nws yog prudently diversified. Nws hais tias kwv yees li 75% lossis ntau dua ntawm nws cov cuab tam muaj nyob hauv Merck shares. Txawm hais tias nws xav kom muaj ntau haiv neeg, nws hais tias, nws muag tsis tau vim nws tsis paub nws tus nqi. Tsis tas li ntawd, nws tsis muaj kev txaus siab rau kev them se peev nyiaj se.
Kuv txiv tau caij Merck cov khoom lag luam hnyav nce mus rau lub yeeb koob. Nws so haujlwm ntxov dua li tag nrho nws cov phooj ywg, thiab txaus siab rau nws txoj kev ywj pheej tshiab hauv toj roob hauv pes ntawm Vermont. Nws tsis nyob ib leeg hauv nws txoj hmoov zoo.
Ib tug ntawm kuv txiv tus phooj ywg zoo tshaj plaws, Bob, yog tus kws lij choj ua tiav. Nws cov ntaub ntawv tseem ceeb heev rau ib qho xiav-chip nyiam, General Electric
GE,
Kuv yuav tsis hnov qab ib hnub sov sov thaum peb peb tham. Cov dej qab zib tau ntws, peb txhua tus tau ci ntsa iab los ntawm ib hnub ntawm kev caij nkoj thiab lub khw muag khoom tau ripping.
Dad thiab Bob—aka Merck thiab GE — pib tham txog kev lag luam Tshuag. Kuv yog ib tug tshiab minted CPA. Kuv tau sib yuav nrog ob tug me nyuam me thiab nyuam qhuav tau txais lub luag haujlwm ntawm CFO ntawm lub tuam txhab pab tswv yim peev. Thaum lawv nug kuv tias kuv nyiam ua dab tsi los nqis peev, koj yuav tsum tau pom lawv lub ntsej muag thaum kuv hais rau lawv tias kuv nyiam cov peev txheej dav dav.
Nyeem: Txuag zoo li npau taws rau 5 xyoo - so haujlwm nrog ntau lab
Kuv yog ib tug thwjtim John Bogle thiab tau nyeem nws phau ntawv Common Sense ntawm Mutual Funds. Kuv kuj tau nyeem William Bernstein's Plaub Pillar ntawm Kev nqis peev, lwm phau ntawv uas yoj tus chij rau index investing. Kuv tsuas xav txog tej yam uas dhau los ntawm lawv lub taub hau thaum lawv hnov kuv tham. Kuv paub tseeb tias lawv tau chalked nws mus txog thaum hluas thiab tsis paub. Kuv yeej nco qab hais tias kuv tau nyob rau hauv txoj kev mus rau qhov nruab nrab, uas lawv hais tias yog lub neej ntawm mediocrity.
Kuv tau tham ntau nrog kuv txiv txog nws txoj kev siv paj tau paj thiab nws txoj kev hlub ntawm kev xaiv trading. Kuv yuav tham txog kev sib txawv thiab ceeb toom nws tias ib qho khoom lag luam yog fraught nrog kev pheej hmoo. Kuv sim piav qhia tias qhov kev pheej hmoo nws tau khiav yog ntau dua li nws qhov khoom plig muaj peev xwm.
Nyeem: Koj cov khoom lag luam tsis tas yuav poob ntau xyoo no
Kuv tau piav qhia tias cov peev nyiaj tau los ntawm qhov ntsuas qhov hnyav uas kuv nyiam tau nqis peev ntau hauv cov yeej tshwj xeeb. Meanwhile, feem ntau cov lag luam tawm lag luam tsis txhob ua Raws li cov Treasurys nyob rau hauv ntev lub hau, thiab thiaj li tau txais me ntsis los yog tsis hnyav. Kuv kuj tau sau tseg tias Nifty Fifty cov khoom lag luam loj hlob los ntawm xyoo 1960-xws li Eastman Kodak, Cov Khoom Siv Digital, JC Penney, Polaroid thiab Sears-tom qab ntawd feem ntau poob nyiaj poob haujlwm, tsis ua haujlwm lossis raug muab ua ke tawm ntawm lub neej.
Ua li cas rau Merck thiab GE, thiab rau Dad thiab Bob? Nyob nruab nrab ntawm 1985 thiab 2000, Merck Tshuag tau nce ntau dua 3,500%. Hauv kaum xyoo tom ntej, txawm li cas los xij, thaum Dad tau so haujlwm, Merck tus nqi poob. Ib qho ntawm nws cov tshuaj muag muag tau poob patent exclusivity nyob rau hauv 2000 thiab 2001. Txawm tias phem dua, Merck yuav tsum tau tshem nws cov blockbuster mob caj dab tshuaj Vioxx los ntawm kev ua lag luam nyob rau hauv 2001 tom qab kev tshawb fawb pom tias cov tshuaj yuav ua rau lub plawv nres thiab mob stroke nyob rau hauv lub sij hawm ntev. cov neeg siv.
Merck Tshuag poob 27% nyob rau hnub ntawm Vioxx tshaj tawm. Nws thiaj li rov qab los tom qab tau txais Schering-Plough, tab sis nws siv ntau xyoo. Txog thaum ntawd, kuv txiv tau raug yuam kom muag khoom kom khaws zaub mov rau ntawm lub rooj. Nws cov ntaub ntawv tau raug tsoo thiab, ntau txoj hauv kev, yog nws.
Lub sijhawm tsaus ntuj no rau nws tau cim los ntawm kev haus cawv ntau ntxiv thiab xav txog kev tua tus kheej. Nws thiaj li dhau los ua nyiaj txiag nyob ntawm kuv, nws tus tub, hauv nws 70s. Kuv xav tias niam txiv npau suav phem tshaj plaws.
Puas yog Bob thiab GE? Thaum Bob yog tag nrho ntawm GE, nws tau khiav los ntawm legendary CEO Jack Welch. Welch, tus qub chemical engineer, orchestrated nrhiav tau ntawm RCA, NBC thiab nthuav GE rau hauv kev pabcuam nyiaj txiag. Tus nqi Tshuag tau nce 40-fold hauv nws txoj haujlwm. Thaum lub sij hawm dot-com sib tsoo ntawm 2000, txawm li cas los xij, GE tau sib koom ua ke. Welch so haujlwm thaum lub Cuaj Hlis 7, 2001.
Nyob rau hauv nws tus successor, Jeff Immelt, GE tus nqi Tshuag stabilized me ntsis. Tab sis tom qab ntawd, xyoo 2008, kev kub ntxhov nyiaj txiag tau ua rau GE nyuaj. Shares poob 42% xyoo ntawd thaum nws paub meej tias GE tau dhau mus. Warren Buffett tau nqis tes nrog cov nyiaj los txhim kho GE txoj haujlwm, thiab lub tuam txhab kuj tau txais $ 139 nphom hauv tsoomfwv qiv nyiaj lav. Tab sis nws cov teeb meem tsis tau xaus nrog kev kub ntxhov nyiaj txiag.
Tom qab xyoo poob lawm, GE raug tshem tawm ntawm Dow Jones Industrial Nruab Nrab thaum Lub Rau Hli 2018. Kuv hnov txog cov khoom thiab cov ntawv hais txog Dad tus phooj ywg Bob. Kuv paub tias nws cov nyiaj laus tsis tau tshwm sim raws li tau npaj tseg, thiab nws tau ua haujlwm zoo rau nws 70s. Nws raug yuam kom muag cov khoom vaj khoom tsev uas nws txwv tsis pub khaws cia.
Kuv sau tsis txhob khav txog kuv qhov kev pom tab sis muab ib zaj lus qhia. Kev nqis peev yog qhov txawv. Cov neeg ntse tshaj plaws tsis tas yuav ua tus neeg ua lag luam zoo tshaj plaws. Cov tub ua lag luam zoo tshaj plaws yuav tsis yog cov uas pore tshaj nyiaj txiag thiab nkag siab txog cov minutiae ntawm cov tshuaj complex, complex systems los yog complex corporations. Tib neeg tus cwj pwm - zoo li overconfidence nyob rau hauv koj qhov kev txiav txim los yog tsis meej pem kev txawj nrog koob hmoov - ua lub luag hauj lwm outsized. Tias yog vim li cas kev coj cwj pwm nyiaj txiag tau dhau los ua qhov kev kawm nrov.
Warren Buffett lub ntug yog tias nws yeej tsis tau muag. Nws nyiam tuav lub sij hawm mus ib txhis. Peb tsis tuaj yeem ua txhua yam zoo li Buffett, tab sis peb tuaj yeem kawm los ntawm qhov ua yuam kev uas ntau tus neeg ua lag luam ua.Rau kuv tus kheej, kuv tsis tau hloov pauv kuv txoj hauv kev. Kuv cov ntaub ntawv ntawm ob peb lub xyoo dhau los muaj ntau ntawm cov khoom lag luam dav dav. Ib yam li kuv txiv, kuv tsis xav muag vim kuv tus nqi qis heev. Tab sis tsis zoo li kuv txiv, kuv tsis tas yuav.
Kab lus no thawj zaug tshwm sim Hlob Dollar. Nws tau rov luam tawm nrog kev tso cai.
Andrew Small yog CFO ntawm Archstone Partnerships los ntawm 1994 txog 2019. Archstone tau xa rov qab nws cov peev rau nws cov tub ua lag luam, tawm Andrew nrog sijhawm ntau los siv kev caij tsheb kauj vab, kawm kos duab thiab pleev xim, taug kev thiab siv sijhawm nrog nws tsev neeg. Nws tus tsiaj portraits thiab lwm yam paintings muaj nyob rau ntawm www.AndySmallArt.com.
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dont-fall-in-love-with-your-investments-theyll-always-break-your-heart-11653931976?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo