Cov nqi tsev qiv nyiaj tau nce ntau dua 7% dua tom qab lub lim tiam dhau los tus nqi nce los ntawm Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve - thiab ob tus neeg yuav khoom thiab cov muag khoom tau nres thaum muaj kev lag luam tsis hloov pauv.
Sam Khater, tus kws tshaj lij nyiaj txiag nrog vaj tse loj heev Freddie Mac hais tias "Kev lag luam vaj tsev yog qhov feem ntau ntawm cov paj laum ntawm kev lag luam, thiab cov txiaj ntsig cuam tshuam rau cov neeg yuav khoom hauv tsev txuas ntxiv mus," hais tias Sam Khater, tus thawj kws lag luam nyiaj txiag nrog vaj tse loj Freddie Mac.
"Kev muag khoom hauv tsev tau poob qis heev thiab, thaum peb mus txog rau xyoo kawg, lawv tsis xav tias yuav txhim kho."
Tus naj npawb ntawm cov npe tshiab ntawm kev ua lag luam tau nqis 20% los ntawm ib xyoos dhau los, raws li Realtor.com.
Tsis nco
30-xyoo taag-tus nqi qiv nyiaj
Qhov nruab nrab cov paj laum ntawm 30-xyoo qiv nyiaj qiv tsev tam sim no yog 7.08%, nce ntawm 6.95% lub lim tiam dhau los, Freddie Mac tshaj tawm hnub Thursday.
Xyoo tas los nyob rau lub sijhawm no, 30-xyoo tus nqi yog qhov nruab nrab 2.98%.
Txawm li cas los xij, nws yog qhov ua tau tus nqi feem ntau tau nce siab thiab tuaj yeem poob rau yav tom ntej, hais tias National Association of Realtors (NAR) tus thawj tswj hwm nyiaj txiag Lawrence Yun - ceeb toom qhov sib txawv loj heev ntawm cov nqi tsev niaj hnub no thiab tsoomfwv cov nyiaj tau los.
"Kev rov qab mus rau qhov kev sib kis ib txwm nyob nruab nrab ntawm tsoomfwv qiv nyiaj thiab qiv nyiaj qiv hauv tsev yuav ua rau 30-xyoo cov nqi tsev qiv nyiaj qis mus txog 6%," piav qhia Yun.
15-xyoo taag-tus nqi qiv nyiaj
A 15-xyoo taag-tus nqi qiv nyiaj tam sim no qhov nruab nrab yog 6.38%, nce los ntawm 6.29% lub lim tiam dhau los, raws li Freddie Mac. Hauv kev sib piv, 15-xyoo tus nqi nruab nrab yog 2.27% xyoo tas los nyob rau lub sijhawm no.
Nrog cov nqi siab heev, cov neeg yuav khoom thiab cov muag khoom tseem tshuav nyob rau hauv "tos-thiab-pom" hom, sau Danielle Hale, tus kws tshaj lij nyiaj txiag ntawm Realtor.com.
Tus nqi nruab nrab yog nce 11.7% ntawm xyoo tas los; txawm li cas los xij, txoj kev loj hlob txuas ntxiv mus qeeb. Tus nqi ib txwm ntawm lub tsev muag ntawm Realtor.com yog $ 425,000 thaum Lub Kaum Hli, piv rau lub caij ntuj sov lub ncov ntawm $ 450,000.
Hale hais tias "Tus nqi ntawm lub tsev muag khoom pheej yig txuas ntxiv nce ntawm ob tus lej nrawm, thiab thaum kawg tuaj yeem rov qab mus rau ib tus lej hauv ib cheeb tsam thaum kawg ntawm lub xyoo yog tias tsis ntev los no qeeb qeeb," Hale hais.
Txav mus rau xyoo 2023, NAR's Yun cia siab tias kev muag khoom hauv tsev thoob plaws tebchaws yuav swb ntxiv 7%, thaum tus nqi nruab nrab yuav nce 1%. Kev ua lag luam yuav tsis thim rov qab tiag tiag kom txog rau thaum 2024, nws ntseeg, kwv yees 10% dhia hauv kev muag khoom thiab 5% nce nqi.
"Rau ntau qhov chaw ntawm lub tebchaws, cov nqi tsev nyob ruaj khov vim tias cov khoom muag muaj tsawg heev," Yun hais tias, kev cia siab ntawm kev poob qis heev-style tsoo.
"Cov khoom lag luam vaj tsev yog kwv yees li ib feem peb ntawm qhov nws tau nyob hauv xyoo 2008 ... Kev muag khoom muaj kev ntxhov siab yuav luag tsis muaj nyob, tsuas yog 2%, thiab tsis pom qhov twg nyob ze ntawm 30% cim pom thaum muaj vaj tse. Kev muag khoom luv luv yuav luag tsis tuaj yeem vim tias tus nqi tseem ceeb ntawm ob xyoos dhau los. "
5-xyoo adjustable-tus nqi tsev qiv nyiaj
Lub tsib xyoos hloov tau-tus nqi qiv nyiaj - lossis tsib xyoos ARM - kuj nce los ntawm lub lim tiam dhau los, thaum nws yog qhov nruab nrab 6.29%. Nws yog tam sim no ntawm 6.38%.
Xyoo tas los ntawm lub sijhawm no nws yog qhov nruab nrab 2.27%.
ARMs pib tawm nrog cov nqi paj qis dua li cov nyiaj qiv qis, zoo li qhov nrov tshaj 30-xyoo ruaj.
Txawm li cas los xij, tus nqi kho tau tuaj yeem nce siab thaum lub sijhawm pib lub sijhawm tas mus li, txij li lawv tau khi rau qhov ntsuas qhov sib txawv xws li tus nqi tseem ceeb.
Nyeem ntxiv: Loj hlob koj cov nyiaj khwv tau los nyuaj yam tsis muaj kev lag luam shaky nrog cov 3 txoj hauv kev yooj yim
Kev ntseeg vaj tse poob qis
Spooked los ntawm kev nce nqi thiab kev lag luam tsis paub tseeb, ob tus neeg yuav khoom thiab cov muag khoom tau rub rov qab los ntawm kev lag luam vaj tsev.
Fannie Mae's Home Purchase Sentiment Index poob 4.1 ntsiab lus nyob rau lub Kaum Hlis mus rau cov ntaub ntawv qis ntawm 56.7, kos nws qhov kev poob qis ib hlis thib yim.
Tsuas yog 16% ntawm cov neeg teb hais tias tam sim no yog lub sijhawm zoo los yuav tsev, thaum feem pua ntawm cov neeg ntseeg tam sim no yog lub sijhawm zoo muag tsev txuas ntxiv poob qis.
Doug Duncan, tus thawj coj loj ntawm lub tuam txhab qiv nyiaj tau hais tias "Cov neeg siv khoom xav tsis thoob ntau ntxiv txog kev yuav tsev thiab kev muag khoom hauv tsev,"
"Raws li cov kev txwv pheej yig txuas ntxiv txo cov neeg yuav khoom hauv tsev, thiab cov tswv tsev tsis kam muag ntawm cov nqi qis, peb cia siab tias kev muag khoom hauv tsev yuav qeeb ntxiv nyob rau lub hlis tom ntej, raws li peb cov kev kwv yees."
Economists ntawm Goldman Sachs tau kwv yees cov nqi tsev yuav poob 5-10% xyoo tom ntej.
Daim ntawv thov qiv nyiaj tseem poob qis
Cov nqi qiv nyiaj nce ntxiv, kev nce nqi siab thiab kev poob nyiaj txiag kev txhawj xeeb tseem ua rau cov neeg yuav khoom hauv tsev ceev faj ntawm kev nkag mus rau hauv kev ua lag luam.
Daim ntawv thov kev yuav tsev qiv nyiaj poob qis 1% los ntawm lub lim tiam dhau los, raws li Lub Tsev Haujlwm Saib Xyuas Nyiaj Txiag (MBA). Qhov no yog 41% qis dua tib lub sijhawm xyoo tas los.
"Kev yuav daim ntawv thov nce thawj zaug tom qab 2015 lub lis piam ntawm kev poob qis tab sis tseem nyob ze rau xyoo XNUMX qis, vim tias cov neeg yuav khoom hauv tsev tseem tsis muaj kev cuam tshuam los ntawm tus nqi siab dua thiab kev lag luam tsis paub tseeb," hais tias Joel Kan, tus lwm thawj coj thiab tus thawj coj saib xyuas nyiaj txiag ntawm MBA.
"Refinances txuas ntxiv poob, nrog rau qhov Performance index ntaus nws qis tshaj plaws txij li lub Yim Hli 2000."
Cov ntawv thov kom rov qiv nyiaj qiv tsev uas twb muaj lawm tau nqis 4% los ntawm lub lim tiam dhau los, thiab qhov hnyav 87% los ntawm ib xyoos ua ntej.
Yuav nyeem dab tsi tom ntej
Kab lus no muab cov ntaub ntawv nkaus xwb thiab yuav tsum tsis txhob muab txhais ua cov lus qhia. Nws tau muab yam tsis muaj kev lees paub ntawm txhua yam.
Tau qhov twg los: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/homebuyers-sellers-never-pessimistic-mortgage-160000525.html