Homebuilder Sentiment poob nrog rau cov nqi tsev

Ntsiab Cai

• Kev xav ntawm tus tsim tsev, ntsuas los ntawm National Association of Home Builders, poob rau lub Kaum Hli.
• Daim ntawv tshaj tawm qhia tias kev xav hauv tsev tsim tau poob rau 10 lub hlis sib law liag.
• Kev ua lag luam vaj tse tab tom ntsib ntau yam kev sib tw, suav nrog cov nqi tsev qiv nyiaj siab thiab kev nce nqi ntawm cov peev nyiaj hauv tsev.

Yog tias koj tau saib xyuas kev lag luam vaj tsev, koj yuav pom tias muaj kev sib tsoo uas nws tau muaj nyob rau ob peb xyoos dhau los. Tom qab pob zeb-hauv qab cov nqi qiv nyiaj tau ua rau zoo li tsis muaj kev sib tw ua tsov rog thoob plaws xyoo 2020 thiab 2021, kev lag luam xob laim-kub tau txias hauv lub hlis tsis ntev los no.

Daim ntawv tshaj tawm txog kev tsim vaj tsev tshiab tshaj tawm qhia txog kev lag luam vaj tsev qeeb. Cia peb saib ze dua ntawm qhov tseem ceeb ntawm kev hloov pauv kev xav hauv tsev thiab cov nqi tsev poob.

Homebuilder Sentiment Drops

Lub koom haum National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) siv qhov ntsuas kub ntawm cov neeg tsim tsev 'kev xav ntawm txhua lub hlis. Nyob rau hauv tsab ntawv tshaj tawm tshiab, cov neeg tsim vaj tsev xav tau poob dua. Kev ntseeg siab tau xav txog ntawm 38 thaum Lub Kaum Hli, uas txhais tau hais tias nws nyob ntawm ib nrab ntawm qib nws yog 6 lub hlis dhau los.

Qhov ntawd sawv cev rau 10 lub hlis sib law liag ntawm kev tso siab rau tus tsim lub tsev. Tsuas yog lub sijhawm tsis paub tseeb ntawm lub caij nplooj ntoo hlav 2020, qhov kev ntseeg siab nyeem ntawv no yog qhov qis tshaj plaws txij li lub Yim Hli 2012.

"Qhov no yuav yog thawj xyoo txij li xyoo 2011 kom pom qhov poob qis rau ib tsev neeg pib," Robert Deitz, NAHB Tus Thawj Saib Xyuas Kev Lag Luam hauv xov xwm tshaj tawm. "Raws li kev cia siab rau kev nce siab ntxiv ntawm cov paj laum vim yog kev ua los ntawm Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve, 2023 tau kwv yees tias yuav pom cov tsev neeg ib leeg ntxiv poob qis vim qhov kev cog lus vaj tse txuas ntxiv mus."

Vaj tse nqe tiam

Raws li lub Kaum Ib Hlis, Redfin tau tshaj tawm lub teb chaws tus nqi muag tsev nruab nrab ntawm $ 397,549. Qhov ntawd yog 4.9% nce xyoo dhau ib xyoos. Txawm hais tias qhov ntawd yuav zoo li kev nce siab, cov nqi vaj tsev loj hlob tau qeeb qeeb me ntsis.

Cov neeg tsim tsev tsis yog tib qho kev ceeb toom ntawm qhov muaj peev xwm poob rau hauv tsev. Qee tus kws tshawb fawb txog nyiaj txiag tau kwv yees qhov kev poob qis. Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve tau ceeb toom tias cov nqi tsev yuav poob, tab sis nws tsis xav tias yuav muaj dab tsi zoo li kev lag luam vaj tsev tsis nco qab uas tau tshwm sim thaum lub sij hawm Kev Txom Nyem Loj.

Tej yam laj thawj rau kev hloov pauv vaj tsev nyob

Nrog rau kev tsim vaj tsev kev xav poob zoo li lub pob zeb, nws yuav pab tau kom nkag siab txog yam dab tsi ntawm kev ua si. Muaj ntau yam ua rau muaj kev hloov pauv vaj tsev. Ntawm no yog saib ze dua ntawm cov laj thawj uas sawv tawm.

Kub nce nqi

Nyob rau hauv lub hlis tsis ntev los no, kev nce nqi yog qhov tseem ceeb ntawm kev lag luam.

cov Consumer Price Index (CPI), qhov kev ntsuas nrov ntawm kev nce nqi, tau zaum ntawm 7.7% xyoo dhau ib xyoo nce hauv daim ntawv tshaj tawm Lub Kaum Hli 2022. Txawm hais tias qhov no qhia txog qhov kev poob qis zuj zus los ntawm qhov siab tshaj plaws hauv lub xyoo, peb tseem nyob hauv lub sijhawm muaj nyiaj txiag ntau.

Tab sis tej zaum koj tsis tas yuav saib daim ntawv tshaj tawm tshwj xeeb kom paub tias kev nce nqi yog nyob rau hauv txoj kev loj. Tej zaum koj yuav pom kev nce nqi raws li nws ntaus koj cov peev nyiaj hauv tsev. Cov tib neeg thiab cov tsev neeg thoob plaws lub tebchaws raug yuam kom siv nyiaj ntau dua rau cov hauv paus xws li zaub mov thiab hluav taws xob.

Nrog rau qhov kev ntxhov siab ntawm cov peev nyiaj hauv tsev, nws nyuaj rau ntau tus tswv tsev los rub cov nyiaj uas tsim nyog rau kev them nqi hauv tsev. Ntxiv rau, cov nqi nce ntxiv hauv lwm thaj chaw ntawm lawv cov peev nyiaj yuav ua rau lub plhaub tawm rau kev them nqi tsev nqi tsev kim kim tsis tuaj yeem.

Nce tus paj laum

Nyob rau hauv teb rau huab cua-siab nce nyiaj txiag, Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve tau aggressively tackling qhov teeb meem. Txawm hais tias lub tuam txhab nyiaj hauv tuam txhab nyiam kom muaj qee theem ntawm kev nce nqi hauv kev lag luam, qhov kev nce nqi tam sim no zoo dua li 2% lub hom phiaj.

Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve nce cov nyiaj hauv tsoom fwv tus nqi thaum nws xav kom tswj kev nce nqi. Thoob plaws xyoo 2022, Fed tau teeb tsa ntau qhov kev nce qib. Raws li tsoomfwv cov peev nyiaj nce ntxiv, yog li ua cov nqi qiv nyiaj rau cov tswv tsev.

Cov paj laum qiv nyiaj tau nce mus txog 2022 qhov siab tshaj ntawm 7.08% rau 30-xyoo tus nqi qiv nyiaj. Txij thaum ntawd los, cov nqi tsev qiv nyiaj tau poob me ntsis. Raws li lub Kaum Ib Hlis 18, cov paj paj paj tau nqis mus rau 6.61%. Tab sis tsis hais txog qhov me me no, cov nqi tsev qiv nyiaj tseem muaj ntau dua li lub sijhawm xyoo tas los no thaum qhov nyiaj paj nruab nrab ntawm 30-xyoo tus nqi qiv nyiaj yog 3.10%.

Cov paj laum ntau dua ua rau cov nyiaj them txhua hli ntau dua rau cov neeg qiv nyiaj. Lub koom haum National of Realtors tau tshaj tawm tias qhov nruab nrab them nyiaj txhua hli rau tus neeg yuav tsev nyob rau lub quarter thib peb ntawm 2022 yog $ 1,840. Qhov ntawd yog qhov tseem ceeb tshaj li $ 1,226 qhov nruab nrab hauv peb lub hlis twg ntawm 2021.

Cov nqi qiv nyiaj ntau dua feem ntau txhais tau tias cov neeg yuav khoom tsis tuaj yeem them taus raws li tus nqi muag khoom siab. Nrog rau qhov tseem ceeb hauv kev ua si, qhov ua tau ntawm cov nqi vaj tsev poob zoo li ua rau muaj kev nkag siab zoo li cov neeg yuav khoom hauv tsev tau txais nqi tawm ntawm lub khw.

Qhov no cuam tshuam li cas rau koj qhov peev txheej

Kev ua lag luam vaj tsev tsis yog tib qho kev lag luam ntawm kev lag luam cuam tshuam los ntawm kev sib xyaw ntawm cov nyiaj kub kub thiab nce paj paj. Raws li kev lag luam vaj tsev hloov pauv nyob ib puag ncig peb, koj tuaj yeem xav ntxiv qhov cuam tshuam rau cov khoom vaj khoom tsev no rau koj cov ntaub ntawv. Tab sis tej zaum koj yuav tsis txaus siab saib xyuas cov minutiae ntawm kev lag luam nce thiab nqis vaj tsev.

Ib txoj hauv kev ntxiv rau kev nthuav dav ntawm cov khoom vaj tsev yog los ntawm kev siv lub zog ntawm kev txawj ntse los ntawm Q.ai Kev nqis peev cov khoom siv. Piv txwv li, lub Ntiaj teb no Trends cov khoom siv yuav siv cov khoom vaj khoom tsev rau hauv tus account thaum ua kev lag luam uas sib haum nrog koj cov hom phiaj ua lag luam. Xav txog kev siv cov qauv tshiab ntawm kev siv cuab yeej cuab tam niaj hnub no.

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