Cov kws tshawb fawb qiv nyiaj ntawm Goldman Sachs tam sim no cia siab tias cov nqi tsev nyob hauv ntau qhov "overheated" metro chaw yuav poob ntau dua 25% los ntawm qib siab.
Cov cheeb tsam me me suav nrog hauv lawv qhov kev kwv yees yog San Jose, Austin, Phoenix thiab San Diego, raws li kev saib xyuas tus nqi tsev tshiab los ntawm pab pawg neeg tshawb fawb Goldman coj los ntawm Lotfi Karoui.
Qee qhov kev lag luam muaj kev pheej hmoo rau tus nqi loj tshaj poob rau xyoo no (saib daim ntawv qhia) twb pom tsawg kawg ib tug 10% depreciation nyob rau hauv lub tsev nqi loj hlob, raws li pab neeg Goldman.
Austin, San Francisco, San Diego thiab Phoenix kom pom cov nqi tsev loj tshaj plaws hauv 2023.
Zillow, Goldman Sachs Kev Tshawb Fawb Kev Lag Luam Thoob Ntiaj Teb
Txawm hais tias tus nqi poob qis tuaj yeem nthuav tawm "kev pheej hmoo hauv cheeb tsam ntawm kev tsis txaus siab ntau dua rau kev qiv nyiaj qiv los ntawm 2022 lossis lig 2021," kev poob qis tsis xav tias yuav muaj kev hem thawj loj nyob txhua qhov chaw.
Hauv tebchaws, pab pawg Goldman cia siab tias cov nqi tsev yuav poob li ntawm 10% xyoo no txij lub Rau Hli 2022 qib, tom qab lawv kwv yees li 4% poob qis hauv ib nrab xyoo tas los.
"Qhov kev poob qis no yuav tsum yog me me kom tsis txhob muaj kev cuam tshuam nyiaj qiv nyiaj ntau, nrog kev nce ntxiv hauv kev kaw thoob tebchaws zoo li tsis zoo," pab pawg tau sau.
US kev ua vaj tse tau poob ntawm pob tsuas txij li Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve pib jacking nce tus nqi nyob rau lub Peb Hlis kom tswj kev nce nqi siab. Cov nqi tsev, txawm li cas los xij, kuj tau nce 40% txij li lub Peb Hlis 2020, raws li Deutsche Bank.
Tus tshiab Goldman tus nqi tsev kwv yees hinged ntawm qhov kev cia siab tias cov paj laum yuav nyob twj ywm siab ntev dua. Pab pawg tau hais tias lawv qhov kev kwv yees xyoo kawg rau 30-xyoo tus nqi qiv nyiaj tau kho dua siab dua los ntawm 30 lub hauv paus ntsiab lus rau 6.5%, tab sis lawv cia siab tias nws yuav thim rov qab mus rau 6.15% hauv 2024.
"Txoj kev no yuav ua rau muaj kev pheej hmoo pheej yig zuj zus ntxiv, tom qab kev txhim kho me ntsis hauv ob lub hlis dhau los," pab pawg tau hais tias, nrog cov nqi tsev yuav hloov mus rau 1% kev txaus siab hauv 2024 yog tias Asmeskas kev lag luam zam kev lag luam poob qis.
Teb Chaws Asmeskas cov khoom lag luam tau nce rau qhov kev sib tham ncaj thib ob hnub Wednesday, ib hnub ua ntej kev hloov tshiab ntawm cov neeg siv khoom lag luam yuav tsum pom qhov poob qis hauv ib xyoos rau 6.5% los ntawm 9.1% ncov lub caij ntuj sov no. Dow Jones Industrial Nruab Nrab
DJIA,
nce 0.8% Hnub Wednesday, S&P 500 Performance index
SPX,
nce 1.3% thiab Nasdaq Composite Index
COMP,
ua tiav 1.8%.
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/home-prices-to-tumble-over-25-from-peak-levels-in-overheated-markets-says-goldman-11673480766?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo