Tsev thiab tsheb yog ob daim pib loj uas cov tsev neeg Asmeskas feem ntau yuav xav tau nyiaj txiag kom tau.
Muaj qee qhov xov xwm zoo - thiab xov xwm tsis zoo - thaum saib ob lub cuab tam hauv ob xyoos tom ntej, raws li Goldman Sachs.
Muaj ntau cov kwv yees cia siab tias Asmeskas cov nqi tsev yuav nce mus rau qhov tshiab tom qab kis thoob qhov txhia chaw, txawm tias ze li ob npaug ntawm 30 xyoo qiv nyiaj. Ntawm qhov tod tes, tus nqi rau cov tsheb siv twb tau pom cov cim ntawm normalizing (saib daim ntawv qhia) raws li cov khoom siv sib txuas tsis sib haum thiab cov khoom muag khoom muag.
Cov nqi tsheb siv tau pom cov cim ntawm normalizing tom qab ob xyoos boom
Goldman Sachs Investment Research, Manheim tsheb nqi Performance index
Kev yooj yim hauv kev lag luam dawb-kub rau tsheb txij li xyoo 2020 tuaj yeem yog ib qho kev txhawb nqa rau Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve raws li nws npaj yuav tua lwm tus nqi paj laum loj tom qab lub hlis no, hauv kev sib tw kom txo qis kev nce nqi nce mus rau 40-xyoo siab ntawm 8.6% nyob rau lub Tsib Hlis.
Lub Tsib Hlis cov neeg siv khoom-tus nqi ntsuas qhia tau hais tias tus nqi siv tsheb thiab tsheb thauj khoom tau nce 16.1% hauv ib xyoos, nrog cov tub ua lag luam ntshai tos kev nyeem ntawv tshiab rau lub Rau Hli yuav xaus rau hnub Wednesday tom ntej.
Goldman Sachs cov kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas, hauv ib daim ntawv teev cov neeg siv khoom txhua lub limtiam, hais tias lawv pom qhov qiv qiv nyiaj qiv nyiaj ntau dua li cov neeg siv khoom siv credit, muab lawv cov kws lag luam kwv yees siv cov nqi tsheb kom poob 7% thaum xyoo kawg thiab 18% thaum kawg ntawm 2023.
"Qhov kev pheej hmoo ntawm kev kho zoo sib xws hauv kev lag luam tsev ib leeg yog nyob deb, hauv peb qhov kev xav," sau Lotfi Karoui pab pawg tshawb fawb credit ntawm Goldman.
Economists ntawm lub tsev txhab nyiaj kwv yees tus nqi tsev yuav nce 9.4% nyob rau hauv lub quarter thib plaub ntawm 2022 los ntawm ib xyoo ua ntej, thiab lwm 1.8% nyob rau hauv 2023.
Neeg Asmeskas muaj tau tapping credit ntawm qhov nrawm nrawm tsis ntev los no, tsa tej kev txhawj xeeb hais txog lub peev xwm rau blowback, muab hais tias feem ntau US cov neeg siv cov nuj nqis yog txiav-thiab-diced rau hauv daim ntawv cog lus uas tau muag rau cov tub ua lag luam.
Tus nqi delinquency ntawm subprime tsheb qiv hauv cov cuab yeej cuab tam-rov qab daim ntawv cog lus tau nce mus rau 4.35% hauv Lub Rau Hli, nce 159 cov ntsiab lus hauv ib xyoos, raws li Barclays Research.
DJIA,
tau siab dua Friday, hauv kev sib tham tsis zoo, tom qab lub Rau Hli txoj haujlwm muaj zog tshaj tawm txog kev sib cav txog tias Fed yuav tsum tau txais txoj hauv kev txawm tias muaj kev cuam tshuam ntau dua.
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/home-prices-may-still-rise-but-car-values-are-set-to-fall-from-pandemic-peak-goldman-11657310917?siteid= yhoof2&yptr=yahoo