Kev lag luam vaj tsev tseem muaj zog, tab sis cov khoom lag luam hauv tsev tau poob rau xyoo no vim cov tub ua lag luam txhawj xeeb tias surging nqi tsev yuav dampen kev ua Tom qab ntawd hauv 2022 thiab hauv 2023.
Qhov tshwm sim yog tias kev lag luam tam sim no muaj tus nqi qis tshaj / cov nyiaj tau los sib piv hauv cov khw muag khoom, nyob ib ncig ntawm plaub zaug kwv yees 2022 cov nyiaj tau los.
Nrog rau qhov kev lag luam pheej yig heev, qhov kev pheej hmoo-nqis nqi zog sib npaug zoo li qhov zoo, vim tias ntau cov khoom lag luam tau ua lag luam ntawm, lossis ze, phau ntawv tus nqi.
Peb caug xyoo cov nqi tsev qiv nyiaj tau nce mus rau yuav luag 4.7%, los ntawm 3% thaum kawg 2021. Yog tias lawv pib rov qab, cov khoom lag luam tuaj yeem sib sau ua ke. Thiab cov khoom lag luam tuaj yeem nce, txawm tias cov nqi tuav ntawm qib tam sim no-yuav tsum muaj kev lag luam muaj txiaj ntsig zoo txuas ntxiv mus.
Cov khoom lag luam hauv tsev yog cov pab pawg thib ob uas ua tau zoo tshaj plaws hauv
S&P 500 qhov ntsuas
xyoo no-tsuas yog cov khoom vaj khoom tsev hauv tsev tau ua phem dua. Cov
iShares Asmeskas Kev Tsim Kho Tsev
Cov nyiaj pauv pauv pauv (ticker: ITB) yog tawm 28.5%, mus txog $ 59. Tus thawj coj kev lag luam
DR Horton (DHI) tawm 31.3%, rau $74.51.
Barron tus sau tau zoo ntawm pab pawg thaum kawg 2021 nyob rau hauv dab tsi zoo li niaj hnub no yog ib tug phem lub sij hawm tsab xov xwm. Cov khoom lag luam poob qis heev txij li ntawd los.
Tsev bull Stephen Kim, tus kws tshuaj ntsuam ntawm Evercore ISI, hais tias cov khoom lag luam pheej yig thiab cov tuam txhab cov nqi av yuav tsum pab muab tso rau hauv qab lawv. Demographics kuj saib zoo, raws li xyoo txhiab tsiv tawm ntawm lub nroog cov tsev nyob rau hauv kev tshawb fawb ntawm ntau qhov chaw nyob rau hauv suburbs.
Phau ntawv tus nqi feem ntau tau txhawb nqa cov khoom lag luam yav dhau los, thiab cov nqi phau ntawv tam sim no tuaj yeem ua rau qis qis hauv kev lag luam vim tias cov laus dua, cov nqi qis dua nqa ntawm cov tuam txhab sib npaug. Kim tau sau tias cov khoom lag luam "yuav ua lag luam zoo hauv qab lawv qhov txiaj ntsig kev ua lag luam."
| Tus tsim tsev / Ticker | Cov Nqe Tsis Ntev Los no | YTD Hloov | 2022E P / E | Nqe rau Phau Ntawv Teev Nqi |
|---|
| KB Home / KBH | $32.38 | -27.6% | 3.1 | 1.0 |
| Taylor Morrison Tsev / TMHC | 27.22 | -22.1 | 3.3 | 0.8 |
| Tri Pointe Tsev / TPH | 20.08 | -28.0 | 3.8 | 0.9 |
| PulteGroup / PHM | 41.90 | -26.7 | 4.1 | 1.4 |
| Cov kwv tij / TOL | 47.02 | -35.1 | 4.5 | 1.1 |
| DR Horton / DHI | 74.51 | -31.3 | 4.6 | 1.7 |
| Lennar / LEN | 81.17 | -30.1 | 5.0 | 1.2 |
E = kwv yees
Qhov chaw: Bloomberg; Cov Ntaub Ntawv
Hu Kwv tij (TOL),
KB Tsev (KWB),
Tri Nyob Hauv Tsev (TPH), thiab
Taylor Morrison Tsev (TMHC) pauv ze ntawm phau ntawv tus nqi, thaum
Lennar (LEN), ib qho ntawm ob tus thawj coj kev lag luam, tam sim no ua lag luam rau 1.2 zaug phau ntawv. DR Horton, tus tsim lub tsev No
PulteGroup (PHM) yog nyob ib ncig ntawm 1.4 npaug, raws li Bloomberg.
Kev lag luam yog tej zaum nyob rau hauv nws qhov zoo tshaj plaws zoo puas tau, nrog muaj zog daim ntawv tshuav nyiaj li cas thiab nce peev rov qab mus rau shareholders, feem ntau los ntawm cov Tshuag rov qab. Lennar yuav rov qab ntau dua 2% ntawm nws cov khoom lag luam hauv lub quarter kawg. Dividend yields feem ntau yog qis dua 2%.
Yog li cas qhov teeb meem?
Yog li qhov teeb meem yog dab tsi? "Cov neeg ua lag luam tau nkag siab tsis txaus ntseeg, muab [uas] kev sib xyaw ntawm cov nqi siab dua thiab cov nqi siab ua rau cov tsev pheej yig dua," JP Morgan tus kws tshuaj ntsuam Michael Rehaut tau sau hauv tsab ntawv tsis ntev los no. "Txawm hais tias lub hauv paus tseem ceeb tam sim no tseem muaj kev noj qab haus huv, tib lub sijhawm, peb ntseeg tias cov neeg lag luam muaj kev txhawj xeeb txog kev nce paj paj thiab kev ruaj khov ntawm cov nyiaj tau los yuav muaj nyob rau lub sijhawm nruab nrab."
Tus kws tshuaj ntsuam JP Morgan yog "tsawg dua" thiab xaiv ntau dua ntawm cov khoom lag luam, nyiam Horton, Lennar, thiab Pulte. Cov neeg tsim tsev hauv tsev tau sib cav nrog cov khoom tsis txaus xws li lub qhov rooj chav nres tsheb.
Cov khoom lag luam Lennar tuaj yeem tau txais txiaj ntsig los ntawm lub tuam txhab cov phiaj xwm los cais cov lag luam uas tsis yog cov tub ntxhais kawm suav nrog kev ua haujlwm xauj tsev ntau xyoo tom qab xyoo no. Kim tau sau tias tus nqi spinoff tuaj yeem yog tshaj $ 20 ib feem.
Lennar muaj ob chav kawm ntawm Tshuag. Nws tsawg-kua, saib xyuas chav kawm B sib koom ua lag luam ntawm kwv yees li 15% luv nqi rau cov kua A ntau dua. Cov khoom lag luam B tau xaus ntawm $ 68.35 Thursday, tawm tsam $ 81.17 rau A Tshuag.
Cov khoom lag luam B, feem ntau tuav los ntawm Lennar Thawj Tswj Hwm Stuart Miller, thaum kawg tuaj yeem muab tso rau hauv A shares, tau txais txiaj ntsig B shareholders. Barron tus tau sau tias B shares yog ib qho kev xaiv zoo mus rau A Tshuag rau tus neeg ua lag luam. B sib koom ua lag luam hauv qab tus nqi ntawm phau ntawv thiab tsuas yog plaub zaug kwv yees cov nyiaj khwv tau los hauv Lennar xyoo nyiaj txiag xaus rau lub Kaum Ib Hlis.
Tus xov tooj hu, uas xaus rau hnub Thursday nyob ib ncig ntawm $ 47, pauv rau 1.1 npaug ntawm lub tuam txhab phau ntawv tus nqi ze li $ 45 hauv nws lub quarter xaus rau lub Ib Hlis. Tus xov tooj yog txawv ntawm nws cov phooj ywg ua tsaug rau nws cov khoom kim heev tsom. Cov neeg yuav khoom muaj txiaj ntsig ntawm nws cov tsev siab-uas tus nqi nruab nrab yog ze li $ 1 lab - nyiam muag cov tsev uas tau txais txiaj ntsig zoo thiab yog li tsis tshua muaj kev hloov pauv ntawm cov nqi tsev qiv nyiaj.
Yog tias Tus Thawj Coj Tus Thawj Coj Doug Yearley tau piav qhia meej txog kev lag luam vaj tsev zoo li nws tau ua hauv lub tuam txhab cov nyiaj tau los tshaj tawm thaum Lub Ob Hlis, kev lag luam tuaj yeem ua haujlwm ntau xyoo.
"Kev ua lag luam no tau txhawb nqa los ntawm cov pej xeem muaj zog, qhov tsis txaus ntseeg ntau ntawm cov khoom siv hauv tsev thiab cov kev xav tau txuas ntxiv, kev loj hlob ntawm cov vaj tsev uas twb muaj lawm, kev tsiv teb tsaws chaw, thiab kev txaus siab ntau dua rau tsev," nws hais tom qab ntawd. "Peb ntseeg tias cov tailwinds ntev ntev yuav txhawb nqa kev thov rau cov tsev tshiab zoo rau yav tom ntej. Nrog rau peb qhov tseem ceeb thiab thaj chaw muaj kev tuav pov hwm thiab peb lub niche tshwj xeeb hauv kev ua lag luam khoom kim heev, peb tau nyob zoo rau kev loj hlob ntxiv. "
Sau ntawv rau Andrew Bary ntawm [email tiv thaiv]
Cov neeg tsim tsev hauv tsev yog cov khoom pheej yig tshaj plaws nyob ib puag ncig. Puas yog Lub Sijhawm Yuav Yuav?
Cov neeg ua haujlwm tsim tsev nyob ntawm Tus Kheej Cov Kwv Tsev hauv Boca Raton, Fla. Tus xov tooj thiab lwm tus neeg tsim tsev tam sim no pauv ze rau phau ntawv tus nqi.
Joe Raedle / Getty dluab
Ntawv loj
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.barrons.com/articles/time-to-buy-home-builder-stocks-51648570926?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo