Ib lub tuam txhab loj hauv Wall Street tab tom kos ib qho kev sib tw rau lub vaj tsev npuas.
Blackstone's Joe Zidle hu cov tsev yuav luag tsis muaj nqis li 2007 ncov. Txawm li cas los xij, nws ntseeg tias kev sib tsoo tsis zoo li qhov sib txawv loj: Cov tswv feem ntau tsis siv lawv lub tsev zoo li ATM.
"Qhov ntawd ua rau ntau tus neeg mus rau pem hauv ntej," lub tuam txhab tus thawj tswj hwm kev nqis peev tau hais rau CNBC's "Nyiaj ceev nyiaj” hnub Monday. "Tus nqi ntawm qhov lawv tshuav yog ntau dua li tus nqi ntawm lawv lub tsev."
Tsis zoo li cov vaj tse tawg, Zidle ntxiv kev ncaj ncees hauv tsev yog nyob rau txhua lub sijhawm siab thiab cov ntawv txheeb xyuas tsev neeg muaj zog.
“Koj tsis tau muaj overbuilding. Koj tsis tau muaj kev poob qis hauv credit lossis qiv cov qauv, "nws tau sau tseg.
Blackstone paub txog muas cov qhab nia ntawm cov vaj tse muaj kev ntxhov siab khi rau xyoo 2008 nyiaj txiag teebmeem. Nws tseem yog ib tus neeg tseem ceeb hauv vaj tsev, nrog rau kev nqis peev hauv kev xauj tsev, tsev xauj-rau-muas khw thiab cov tub ntxhais kawm vaj tsev.
"Vim tias koj muaj tsev nyob tsawg heev, kuv xav tias koj yuav muaj kev pheej hmoo tsawg," nws hais.
Ntxiv rau, Zidle hais txog kev ua lag luam muaj zog.
Nws tau hais tias "Keeb kwm yav dhau los, vaj tse xaus rau kev sib raug zoo rau kev lag luam ua haujlwm ntau dua li nws yog rau cov nqi qiv nyiaj," nws hais. "Raws li kev ua lag luam kev lag luam tseem muaj kev noj qab haus huv, kuv xav tias vaj tse yuav zoo ib yam."
Nws qhov kev kwv yees los txog thaum Wall Street tau npaj rau cov lus ceeb toom tseem ceeb rau lub lim tiam no ntawm cov neeg siv khoom thiab vaj tsev. Cov neeg lag luam yuav tau txais nyiaj tau los ntawm cov khw muag khoom loj xws li Walmart, Tsev Depot, Lowe's thiab Target. Tsis tas li ntawd, cov lej ntawm cov neeg tsim vaj tsev xav tau thiab kev muag khoom hauv tsev tau dhau los.
Zidle qhov kev hu xov tooj qhia txog lub sijhawm 12 lub hlis. Nyob rau hauv lub qab ntug ntawd, nws pom Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve hiking cov paj laum tob rau hauv lub xyoo tom ntej tshaj li Txoj Kev kwv yees vim muaj nyiaj txiag tsis tu ncua.
"Thaum kawg, Fed yuav tsum tau nce tus nqi paj kom txog thaum muaj qee yam tawg," ntxiv Zidle. “Thaum peb tau txais mus rau qhov chaw uas ib yam dab tsi tawg, Kuv tsis xav tias nws yog tsev nyob. "
Nws cia siab tias yuav tau txais txiaj ntsig 10-xyoo Treasury Note yield nce mus txog 3.5%. Nws yog ib theem uas nws cia siab tias lub tsev lag luam yuav daws tau. Hnub Monday, nws nyob ib puag ncig 2.8%, nce 90% txog rau xyoo no.
“Koj yuav pom cov nqi tsev feem ntau flatten tawm. Tej zaum koj yuav muaj hnab ris tsis muaj zog qhov twg cov nqi tsev hauv qee thaj tsam yuav poob, "Zidle tau hais. "Tab sis lub tswv yim ntawm kev muaj lub teb chaws thiab kev poob qis hauv vaj tsev nyob ntev raws li kev lag luam thaum kawg dov, kuv xav tias tseem yog qhov muaj feem tsawg."
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/16/home-affordability-at-2007-bubble-level-but-crash-unlikely-blackstone.html