US cov peev txheej tseem tab tom ua lag luam ntawm "sab kim" uas txuas ntxiv ua kom ceev faj, hais Matt Maley. Nws yog Tus Thawj Saib Xyuas Kev Lag Luam ntawm Miller Tabak.
Maley cov lus hais ntawm CNBC's 'Kev Sib Tham Thoob Ntiaj Teb'
Ntau tus cia siab tias Asmeskas lub tuam txhab nyiaj hauv nruab nrab yuav tig qis qis dua nyob rau lub hlis tom ntej, tsim kom muaj chaw rau S&P 500 qhov ntsuas mus rally los ntawm no. Tab sis Maley ceeb toom qhov laj thawj yog vim li cas Fed tej zaum yuav xaiv kom tsawg dua hawkish, nyob rau hauv nws tus kheej, yog bearish rau lub lag luam.
Tsuas yog vim li cas vim li cas lawv thiaj li tsis ua nruj heev yog tias peb muaj qhov khov kho hauv kev lag luam nyiaj tau los ruaj khov zoo li peb tau ua hauv 2018 thiab 2020 lossis yog tias kev lag luam poob qis heev. Ob qho piv txwv no coj lub khw lag luam qis heev.
Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve, txawm li cas los xij, twb tau lees tias nws yuav txuas ntxiv mus nce nqi kom txog thaum kev nce nqi tau tamed.
Maley cia siab tias cov nyiaj tau los kwv yees yuav nqis los
Tus kws tshaj lij Miller Tabak ntseeg tau tias kev ua lag luam tsis muaj nqi nyob rau hauv ob chav whammy ntawm nce nqi thiab shrinking tshuav nyiaj li cas. Tag kis no rau CNBC's "Kev Sib Tw Thoob Ntiaj Teb", nws hais tias:
Peb pib lub xyoo ntawm 22 lub sij hawm cov nyiaj tau los. Tam sim no peb nyob ntawm 18. Qhov ntawd tseem nyob rau sab kim. Nrog GDP kwv yees txiav ib nrab ntawm 6-8 lub hlis dhau los, nws tsuas yog teeb meem ntawm lub sijhawm ua ntej kev kwv yees nyiaj tau los. Yog li, nws yeej tsis raug nqi hauv.
Maley rov hais dua tias peb nyob hauv ib kev them nyiaj-driven inflation tam sim no. Nws tsis zoo rau cov khoom lag luam hauv xyoo 1970, thiab nws yuav tsis yog lub sijhawm no thiab, nws xaus lus.
Tus ncej Ntawm no yog vim li cas cov tub ua lag luam yuav tsum tsis txhob bullish dhau lawm tshwm sim thawj zaug Tsam.
Tau qhov twg los: https://invezz.com/news/2022/06/07/heres-why-investors-shouldnt-be-too-bullish-just-yet/