Tojsiab
Kwv yees li ob feem peb ntawm cov neeg xaiv tsa hauv Asmeskas yog "tseem ceeb" npaj mus xaiv tsa lub Kaum Ib Hlis ib nrab, tshiab pov los ntawm Morning Consult pom, nrog Republican cov neeg xaiv tsa thiab cov txiv neej txog tam sim no tshwm sim me ntsis tuaj yeem pov npav txawm hais tias Democratic cov kws tshaj lij kev cia siab rau Lub Tsev Hais Plaub Siab Tshaj Plaws Roe v. Wade yuav tua lawv lub hauv paus.
Cov neeg pov npav xaiv tsa hauv Republican thawj kev xaiv tsa hauv Wilson, Wyoming, thaum Lub Yim Hli 16.
AFP ntawm Getty Dluab
Cov Lus Tseem Ceeb
Qhov kev xaiv tsa, tau ua lub Cuaj Hlis 30-Lub Kaum Hli 1 ntawm 2,005 cov neeg xaiv tsa, pom 67% ntawm cov neeg pov npav hais tias lawv "yeej yuav pov npav" thaum lub Kaum Ib Hlis, tib feem uas tau hais tias lawv "yuav pov npav tiag tiag" ntawm lub sijhawm no ua ntej 2018 midterms - uas xaus li muaj ntau tshaj tawm ntawm cov neeg pov npav xaiv tsa txij li xyoo 1914.
Cov Republicans tam sim no muaj feem ntau dua li Democrats (72% ntawm Republicans piv rau 67% ntawm Democrats), thaum 59% ntawm Cov Neeg ywj pheej hais tias lawv yuav pov npav.
Txawm tias lus ceeb toom tias cov neeg pov npav xaiv tsa ntawm cov poj niam tau nce zuj zus los ntawm Lub Tsev Hais Plaub Siab overturning Roe v. Wade, qhov kev tshawb fawb pom muaj txiv neej ntau dua li cov poj niam npaj mus pov npav - 70% piv rau 64% - thiab cov poj niam Republican tshwj xeeb tshaj yog yuav tawm, nrog 73% hais tias lawv yuav pov npav rau 64% ntawm cov poj niam Democratic.
Cov neeg pov npav dawb kuj feem ntau yuav pov npav, nrog 72% hais tias lawv yuav mus xaiv tsa piv rau 57% ntawm cov neeg xaiv tsa Dub, 49% ntawm cov neeg pov npav Hispanic thiab 54% ntawm cov neeg pov npav los ntawm lwm haiv neeg thiab haiv neeg.
Qhov zoo li cov neeg xaiv tsa yuav mus xaiv tsa yuav nce ntxiv raws li kev kawm ntau npaum li cas lawv tau txais, nrog 75% ntawm cov neeg pov npav tuav lub tsev kawm ntawv qib siab npaj mus pov npav rau 74% ntawm cov kawm tiav qib bachelor's degree thiab 62% ntawm cov neeg pov npav tsis muaj kev kawm qib siab. .
Qhov sib faib ntawm cov neeg pov npav npaj yuav tawm mus kuj nce mus rau hnub nyoog: Tsuas yog 46% ntawm cov hnub nyoog 18 txog 34 xyoo tau pov npav tiag tiag, piv rau 59% ntawm cov hnub nyoog 35-44, 73% ntawm cov 45-64 thiab 84% ntawm cov neeg pov npav hnub nyoog 65 xyoos thiab siab dua.
Txaus Ntshai Qhov Tseeb
Cov neeg pov npav ywj pheej tam sim no tshwj xeeb tshaj yog yuav pov npav ntau dua li lawv tau nyob hauv 2018, nrog 59% hais tias lawv yuav pov npav rau lub Kaum Ib Hlis piv rau 53% hauv 2018. Cov Democrats, lub sijhawm no, tsis tshua muaj feem yuav hais tias lawv yuav tawm, nrog 67% Ntawm cov neeg pov npav ywj pheej hais tias lawv yuav tawm tam sim no piv rau 73% hauv 2018. (Cov koom pheej Republicans tsuas yog poob los ntawm ib feem pua ntawm 2018.) 69% feem coob ntawm cov neeg pov npav uas tau pov npav rau Thawj Tswj Hwm Joe Biden thaum lub Kaum Ib Hlis kuj hais tias lawv yuav tig. tawm tam sim no, piv rau 80% ntawm Hillary Clinton cov neeg pov npav hauv 2018. Cov neeg xaiv tsa uas kawm tiav qib siab kuj tau pom lawv qhov kev txaus siab poob qis, nrog 75% npaj yuav pov npav tam sim no piv rau 83% hauv 2018.
Contra
Txawm hais tias Republicans tshaj tawm tias muaj feem ntau yuav pov npav ntawm no, FiveThirtyEight qhov kev xaiv tsa nruab nrab pom Cov Democrats tam sim no ua ntej me ntsis thaum nws los txog rau cov kev xaiv tsa nom tswv-uas xaiv cov neeg xaiv tsa ntawm tog twg lawv yuav txhawb nqa hauv kev xaiv tsa - nrog Democrats muaj 45.3% txhawb nqa piv rau Republicans 44.3%. Separate Morning Consult pov muab Democrats kom muaj txiaj ntsig zoo dua, nrhiav 49% nyiam xaiv Democrats piv rau 44% nyiam Republicans thaum Lub Kaum Hli 2. Qhov kev xaiv tsa no kuj pom ntau cov Democrats tshaj tawm tias "tsis tshua muaj" lossis "zoo heev" txog kev pov npav thaum lub Kaum Ib Hlis, nrog 63% ntawm Democrats hais. lawv txaus siab rau 59% ntawm Republicans.
Dab Tsi Los Saib
Kev xaiv tsa nruab nrab yuav muaj nyob rau hnub Tuesday, Kaum Ib Hlis 8, uas Republicans thiab Democrats yuav tawm tsam rau kev tswj hwm ntawm Congress thaum muaj ntau qhov kev sib tw gubernatorial muaj npe nyob thoob plaws lub tebchaws. Republicans lossis Democrats yuav tsum tau xaiv ib lub rooj zaum kom tau txais kev tswj hwm ntawm Senate, thaum Republicans yuav tsum tau txais tsawg dua 10 lub rooj zaum hauv Tsev. ntxeev lub chamber-Qhov kev xaiv tsa qhia tias lawv tuaj yeem ua tau ua tau zoo heev. Ntawm cov thawj tswj hwm uas khiav los xaiv tsa yog Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), uas tau pom dav dav tias yog tus neeg sib tw rau 2024 GOP tus thawj tswj hwm xaiv tsa, thiab Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D), uas nws haiv neeg yog ib ntawm ob peb gubernatorial kev xaiv tsa hauv cov xeev sib ntaus sib tua uas tuaj yeem cuam tshuam rau lub xeev cov cai rho menyuam tawm zoo li cas.
Tus Keeb Kwm Tseem Ceeb
Republicans tau txais kev pom zoo los yeej tawm hauv lub Kaum Ib Hlis, qhia txog kev nthuav dav uas tus thawj tswj hwm tog feem ntau nqes zuj zus nyob rau hauv nruab nrab lub sij hawm, txawm hais tias lub Supreme Court lub rau hli ntuj txiav txim uas overturned Roe v. Wade tau muab cov kev xaiv tsa tom ntej no ntau nyob rau hauv kev ua si rau Democrats. Democratic strategists muaj cia siab Lub Tsev Hais Plaub Qib Siab qhov kev txiav txim siab rho menyuam tawm yuav tawm ntawm tog neeg lub hauv paus, nrog rau kev yaum cov neeg ywj pheej thiab cov neeg nruab nrab ntawm Republicans kom rov qab cov neeg sib tw Democratic txhawm rau txhawm rau txo cov cai rho menyuam. Cov kev sib tw siab uas tau tshwm sim los txog tam sim no nyob rau lub Kaum Ib Hlis tau hais tias kev rho menyuam tawm yog tsav cov neeg xaiv tsa mus xaiv tsa, nrog rau Kansas daim ntawv xaiv tsa ntawm kev rho menyuam thaum Lub Yim Hli hnyav hnyav rau kev tiv thaiv txoj cai rho menyuam tawm thiab tus neeg sib tw ywj pheej Pat Ryan yeej ib qho kev sib tw tshwj xeeb hauv Congressional kev xaiv tsa hauv New York, uas tau pom dav dav yog ib qho kev sib cav txog seb qhov kev sib cav txog kev rho menyuam yuav txhawb cov neeg xaiv tsa. Thaum cov cim qhia ntxov tau txhawb nqa rau Democrats, txawm li cas los xij, nws tseem ntxov dhau los qhia tias qhov loj npaum li cas ntawm kev rho menyuam yuav ua si hauv nruab nrab. Kev pov npav qhia tias kev lag luam tseem yog qhov tseem ceeb tshaj plaws ntawm cov neeg Asmeskas cov kev xaiv tsa, nrog 77% ntawm cov neeg teb rau Morning Consult hais tias Qhov teeb meem no yog "tseem ceeb heev" thaum txiav txim siab lawv pov npav thaum Lub Kaum Hli 1, piv rau 51% uas tau hais tib yam txog kev rho menyuam.
ntxiv nyeem ntawv
Midterm Turnout Zoo li Primed kom ncav cuag qib keeb kwm dua (Morning Consult)
2022 Kev Xaiv Tsa Nruab Nrab: Cov Democrats tuav Edge ntawm Daim Ntawv Pov Thawj (Morning Consult)
Cov neeg pov npav puas xav tau Republicans lossis Democrats hauv Congress? (TsibthirtyEight)
Yuav ua li cas yog Republicans coj lub Tsev, Senate (los yog ob qho tib si) hauv 2023? (Washington Post)
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2022/10/07/heres-whos-most-likely-to-vote-in-the-november-midterms-poll-finds/