Tsuas yog ib zaug hauv 100 xyoo dhau los no muaj cov neeg Amelikas cov neeg cawm siav ntev ua phem dua li xyoo tas los. Tsuas yog nyob rau hauv 1974 - xyoo ntawm Watergate, OPEC embargoes, roj kab thiab kev lag luam - puas tau tus qauv, benchmark, nruab nrab-ntawm-tus-txoj kev peev portfolio poob nqi ntau tshaj li nws tau ua nyob rau hauv 2022.
Qhov ntawd tsis tau tshwm sim nyob rau xyoo 1931, thaum Wall Street poob rau hauv Kev Nyuaj Siab Loj thiab muaj kev kub ntxhov thoob ntiaj teb. Tsis yog nws tshwm sim hauv 1941, xyoo ntawm kev ua haujlwm Barbarossa thiab Pearl Harbor. Thiab tsis yog xyoo 2008, xyoo ntawm kev kub ntxhov thoob ntiaj teb.
Lub npe hu ua "balanced" lossis "60/40" portfolio, suav nrog 60% US cov tuam txhab lag luam loj thiab 40% US daim ntawv cog lus, poob ib qho staggering 23% ntawm nws cov nqi xyoo tas los hauv cov nyiaj tiag (lub ntsiab lus thaum hloov pauv nyiaj nce nqi) . Daim duab xyoo 1974, qhov xwm txheej, tsuas yog me ntsis zuj zus: 24%.
Qhov no tsis yog yuav tsum tshwm sim. Tag nrho lub hom phiaj ntawm qhov "sib npaug" portfolio yog kom tsis txhob muaj kev sib tsoo tiag tiag. Yog tias cov tub ua lag luam zoo siab poob ib feem peb ntawm lawv cov nyiaj hauv ib xyoos lawv yuav nqis peev tag nrho hauv cov khoom lag luam thiab cia siab tias tsawg kawg yuav ua rau lub txhab nyiaj hauv txoj kev. Lub ntsiab lus hais txog 60/40 - lub ntsiab lus tsawg kawg yog muag rau cov neeg khaws nyiaj los ntawm Wall Street - yog tias 40% nqis peev hauv "kev nyab xeeb" daim ntawv cog lus yuav tsum sib npaug tawm qhov kev pheej hmoo ntawm 60% nqis peev hauv cov khoom lag luam. Tab sis xyoo tas los daim ntawv cog lus poob ntau npaum li cov khoom lag luam.
Qhov teeb meem tiag tiag nrog 60/40 tsis yog tias nws ua tsis tiav xyoo tas los. Nws yog tias nws tau ua tsis tiav ua ntej, ntau dua, thiab tuaj yeem ua tau dua. Qhov ntawd yog vim 60/40 tuaj yeem ua tsis tiav rau lub sijhawm ntev.
Tsis ntseeg kuv? Tshawb xyuas cov ntaub ntawv keeb kwm. Ib tug neeg uas tuav lawv cov nyiaj hauv qhov "sib npaug," 60/40 portfolio tau poob nyiaj hauv cov ntsiab lus tiag tiag rau tag nrho 1960s thiab 1970s. Yog tias koj tau nqis peev $ 1,000 hauv cov ntaub ntawv no thaum kawg ntawm 1961 thiab tau pw tsaug zog rau 20 xyoo ib yam li Rip Van Winkle - qhia koj tus thawj tswj nyiaj kom tsis txhob ua dab tsi tab sis rov ntsuas cov ntaub ntawv ib xyoos ib zaug kom khaws nws ntawm 60/40 - thaum koj tuaj rov qab rau xyoo 1981, koj yuav pom tias tag nrho lub sijhawm koj rov qab los yuav tsis muaj dab tsi tseem ceeb. Tag nrho koj cov txiaj ntsig yuav raug tshem tawm los ntawm kev nce nqi, thiab tom qab ntawd qee qhov. Lub zog yuav khoom ntawm koj cov nyiaj khaws cia yuav poob me ntsis thaum lub sijhawm ntawd. Koj yuav muaj tsawg dua qhov koj pib nrog.
Auj, thiab qhov no yog ua ntej 20 xyoo cov nqi se thiab nqi.
Tib qhov xwm txheej tsis muaj kev loj hlob tau tshwm sim thaum xyoo 1936 thiab 1947, thiab dua los ntawm qhov kawg ntawm 1999 txog rau xyoo 2008.
Kev poob hauv ib xyoos, txawm tias xyoo 2022 lossis 1974, tuaj yeem rov qab tau. Tab sis yuav ua li cas cov phiaj xwm nyiaj laus, kev npau suav hauv tsev kawm qib siab thiab lwm lub hom phiaj lub neej rov qab los ntawm 5, 10 lossis 20 xyoo uas tsis muaj rov qab los? Leej twg muaj peev xwm them taus ib xyoo caum lossis ob?
Wall Street yog tam sim no khawb nws cov plaub muag thiab ua txuj xav tsis thoob los ntawm qhov tshwm sim xyoo tas los. Tsis muaj leej twg xav tsis thoob, lawv nyiam kev daws teeb meem txhua tus koom nrog peb muab lawv ntau dua ntawm peb cov nyiaj los nqis peev hauv cov khoom lag luam nqi siab dua hu ua “alternative cuab tam,” suav nrog kev ncaj ncees ntiag tug, vaj tse thiab cov nyiaj qiv nyiaj, hedge funds thiab ua li ntawd.
Tab sis muaj lus teb yooj yim dua.
Qhov teeb meem nrog 60/40 xyoo tas los tsis yog ntau cov khoom lag luam - tab sis cov ntawv cog lus. Peb cia siab tias cov khoom lag luam rau tank qee zaum. Yog vim li cas peb cia siab tias lawv yuav them nyiaj ntau rau peb mus ntev. Tab sis peb tsis xav tias daim ntawv cog lus yuav poob 18% hauv ib xyoos. Zoo heev rau stability.
Qhov ntawd yog qhov teeb meem loj hauv lub xyoo dhau los uas ploj lawm. Bonds nyuam qhuav khaws cia nrog kev nce nqi hauv xyoo 1960, thiab lawv poob nyiaj tiag tiag hauv xyoo 1940 thiab 1970s. Kev nce nyiaj nce siab ua rau nce cov paj laum, thiab ib tus neeg tuav cov ntawv cog lus ntev ntev ua rau ob lub sij hawm poob. Lawv daim coupon them nqi tsawg thiab tsawg dua hauv cov ntsiab lus tiag. Thiab lawv tsis tuaj yeem siv tag nrho cov txiaj ntsig tshiab, cov paj laum ntau dua vim tias lawv raug kaw rau hauv cov laus, cov nqi qis dua.
Lawv tau zoo dua nrog cov nyiaj ntsuab - suav nrog, hauv cov nqe lus peev, cov nqi qiv nyiaj, cov nyiaj khaws cia thiab nyiaj txiag lag luam. Phab ntsa Street ntxub "nyiaj ntsuab" tab sis, thov tias, txawm tias nws ruaj khov thiab muaj peev xwm, nws muaj kev txaus ntshai rov qab mus ntev. Cov neeg siv khoom yeej ib txwm raug yaum kom pauv lawv cov nyiaj los ntawm cov nyiaj ntsuab rau cov khoom lag luam uas tsim cov nqi - lossis raws li lawv hais, "rov qab." Cov tub lag luam feem ntau hais kom "muab cov nyiaj ntawd mus ua haujlwm." Tab sis xyoo tas los nws tau mus "ua haujlwm" thiab coj cov nyiaj hli tsis zoo ntawm 23%, raws li daim ntawv cog lus, nrog rau cov khoom lag luam, tau ua phem dua xyoo tas los dua li cov nqi nyiaj txiag.
Qhov no tsis yog ib qho kev tawm tsam. Qhov tseeb, niaj hnub Rip Van Winkle yuav zoo dua tawm ntawm nws cov nyiaj hauv Treasury bills dua 10-xyoo Treasury bonds rau ib qho kev xav tsis thoob 33 xyoo dhau los, los ntawm 1949 txog 1982. Qhov txawv tsis yog me ntsis, ib yam nkaus. Cov nqi luv luv tau tsim ob zaug ntawm tag nrho cov nyiaj rov qab rau lub sijhawm ntawd rau cov ntawv cog lus.
Warren Buffett tau muab cov lus qhia tias tom qab nws tuag nws txoj hmoov zoo yuav tsum tau nqis peev feem ntau hauv cov khoom lag luam tab sis nrog 10% hauv Cov Nqi Them Nqi - tsis yog daim ntawv cog lus. Tus kws pab tswv yim nyiaj txiag Askiv Andrew Smithers tau txais cov lus pom zoo zoo sib xws thaum nws tau ua qhov kev tshuaj xyuas ntev heev rau nws lub qub Cambridge University College (uas tau tsim nyob rau xyoo 1326, yog li peb tham ntev). Nyiaj ntsuab, tsis yog daim ntawv cog lus, muaj kev ntseeg siab dua rau cov khoom lag luam, Smithers pom. Nws qhov kev xaiv zoo tshaj rau 60/40 yog 80/20: 80% Tshuag, 20% nqi.
Lub caij no, Wall Street tuaj yeem tso tseg tsis ua txuj tias nws tsis nkag siab tias yog vim li cas 60/40 ua tsis tiav xyoo tas los. Nws paub tag nrho zoo. Cov nyiaj qiv nyiaj yuav luag lav tsis tau sai lossis tom qab vim tias lawv twb raug kaw hauv qhov tsis zoo tiag tiag, kev nce nqi hloov pauv hloov pauv. Thaum pib ntawm 2022, 10-xyoo Treasury daim ntawv cog lus muaj cov txiaj ntsig, lossis paj paj, ntawm 1.5%. Tsis tsuas yog Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve lub hom phiaj mus sij hawm ntev 2%, tab sis qhov tseeb tus nqi nce nqi thaum lub sij hawm yog 7%, thiab cov lag luam nyiaj tau txais nws. mus rau nruab nrab 2.6% nyob rau hauv kaum xyoo tom ntej. Inflation-protected Treasury bonds coj qhov kev npau taws ntxiv: Lawv kaw qhov tsis zoo tiag tiag cov paj laum. Lawv tau lav tias yuav poob lub zog yuav khoom thaum lub sijhawm.
Cov neeg ua lag luam muaj kev txom nyem nyob rau xyoo 1960 thiab 1970s tau tsim lub sijhawm laconic los piav txog lawv cov kev nqis peev uas tsis txaus ntseeg: "cov ntawv pov thawj ntawm kev txeeb." Lawv tsis ua koj nyiaj, lawv poob koj nyiaj.
Tej zaum Treasury bills yog qhov zoo dua rau cov khoom lag luam thaum lub sij hawm ntau dua li cov ntawv cog lus. Tej zaum tsis yog. Tab sis nws yuav sawv rau qhov laj thawj tias cov nqi - lossis kub, rau qhov teeb meem - tej zaum yuav zoo dua li daim ntawv cog lus yog tias tom kawg tau lees tias yuav raug nqi koj cov nyiaj.
"Kuv tsis yog neeg ntse," ib tug phooj ywg uas nyuam qhuav pib tswj nyiaj, "tab sis kuv tau sau ntawv rau tus neeg siv khoom tam sim no uas tsis muaj dab tsi [piv txwv li, ib qho bonds] tab sis luv luv thiab ultrashort bonds yog qhov ntse tshaj plaws uas kuv tau ua xyoo tas los. Tsis txhob zam tej yam yuav pom tseeb dua. "
Thaum lub sij hawm 60/40 cov ntaub ntawv poob qis ze li ntawm 20%, nws cov neeg siv khoom tsuas yog 6% mus rau 8%.
Source: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-where-the-60-40-could-really-fail-you-but-a-better-option-may-be-under-your-nose-6d14ec40?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo
Ntawm no yog qhov 60/40 tuaj yeem ua tsis tau koj. Tab sis qhov kev xaiv zoo dua tuaj yeem nyob hauv qab koj lub qhov ntswg.
Tsuas yog ib zaug hauv 100 xyoo dhau los no muaj cov neeg Amelikas cov neeg cawm siav ntev ua phem dua li xyoo tas los. Tsuas yog nyob rau hauv 1974 - xyoo ntawm Watergate, OPEC embargoes, roj kab thiab kev lag luam - puas tau tus qauv, benchmark, nruab nrab-ntawm-tus-txoj kev peev portfolio poob nqi ntau tshaj li nws tau ua nyob rau hauv 2022.
Qhov ntawd tsis tau tshwm sim nyob rau xyoo 1931, thaum Wall Street poob rau hauv Kev Nyuaj Siab Loj thiab muaj kev kub ntxhov thoob ntiaj teb. Tsis yog nws tshwm sim hauv 1941, xyoo ntawm kev ua haujlwm Barbarossa thiab Pearl Harbor. Thiab tsis yog xyoo 2008, xyoo ntawm kev kub ntxhov thoob ntiaj teb.
Lub npe hu ua "balanced" lossis "60/40" portfolio, suav nrog 60% US cov tuam txhab lag luam loj thiab 40% US daim ntawv cog lus, poob ib qho staggering 23% ntawm nws cov nqi xyoo tas los hauv cov nyiaj tiag (lub ntsiab lus thaum hloov pauv nyiaj nce nqi) . Daim duab xyoo 1974, qhov xwm txheej, tsuas yog me ntsis zuj zus: 24%.
Qhov no tsis yog yuav tsum tshwm sim. Tag nrho lub hom phiaj ntawm qhov "sib npaug" portfolio yog kom tsis txhob muaj kev sib tsoo tiag tiag. Yog tias cov tub ua lag luam zoo siab poob ib feem peb ntawm lawv cov nyiaj hauv ib xyoos lawv yuav nqis peev tag nrho hauv cov khoom lag luam thiab cia siab tias tsawg kawg yuav ua rau lub txhab nyiaj hauv txoj kev. Lub ntsiab lus hais txog 60/40 - lub ntsiab lus tsawg kawg yog muag rau cov neeg khaws nyiaj los ntawm Wall Street - yog tias 40% nqis peev hauv "kev nyab xeeb" daim ntawv cog lus yuav tsum sib npaug tawm qhov kev pheej hmoo ntawm 60% nqis peev hauv cov khoom lag luam. Tab sis xyoo tas los daim ntawv cog lus poob ntau npaum li cov khoom lag luam.
Qhov teeb meem tiag tiag nrog 60/40 tsis yog tias nws ua tsis tiav xyoo tas los. Nws yog tias nws tau ua tsis tiav ua ntej, ntau dua, thiab tuaj yeem ua tau dua. Qhov ntawd yog vim 60/40 tuaj yeem ua tsis tiav rau lub sijhawm ntev.
Tsis ntseeg kuv? Tshawb xyuas cov ntaub ntawv keeb kwm. Ib tug neeg uas tuav lawv cov nyiaj hauv qhov "sib npaug," 60/40 portfolio tau poob nyiaj hauv cov ntsiab lus tiag tiag rau tag nrho 1960s thiab 1970s. Yog tias koj tau nqis peev $ 1,000 hauv cov ntaub ntawv no thaum kawg ntawm 1961 thiab tau pw tsaug zog rau 20 xyoo ib yam li Rip Van Winkle - qhia koj tus thawj tswj nyiaj kom tsis txhob ua dab tsi tab sis rov ntsuas cov ntaub ntawv ib xyoos ib zaug kom khaws nws ntawm 60/40 - thaum koj tuaj rov qab rau xyoo 1981, koj yuav pom tias tag nrho lub sijhawm koj rov qab los yuav tsis muaj dab tsi tseem ceeb. Tag nrho koj cov txiaj ntsig yuav raug tshem tawm los ntawm kev nce nqi, thiab tom qab ntawd qee qhov. Lub zog yuav khoom ntawm koj cov nyiaj khaws cia yuav poob me ntsis thaum lub sijhawm ntawd. Koj yuav muaj tsawg dua qhov koj pib nrog.
Auj, thiab qhov no yog ua ntej 20 xyoo cov nqi se thiab nqi.
Tib qhov xwm txheej tsis muaj kev loj hlob tau tshwm sim thaum xyoo 1936 thiab 1947, thiab dua los ntawm qhov kawg ntawm 1999 txog rau xyoo 2008.
Kev poob hauv ib xyoos, txawm tias xyoo 2022 lossis 1974, tuaj yeem rov qab tau. Tab sis yuav ua li cas cov phiaj xwm nyiaj laus, kev npau suav hauv tsev kawm qib siab thiab lwm lub hom phiaj lub neej rov qab los ntawm 5, 10 lossis 20 xyoo uas tsis muaj rov qab los? Leej twg muaj peev xwm them taus ib xyoo caum lossis ob?
Wall Street yog tam sim no khawb nws cov plaub muag thiab ua txuj xav tsis thoob los ntawm qhov tshwm sim xyoo tas los. Tsis muaj leej twg xav tsis thoob, lawv nyiam kev daws teeb meem txhua tus koom nrog peb muab lawv ntau dua ntawm peb cov nyiaj los nqis peev hauv cov khoom lag luam nqi siab dua hu ua “alternative cuab tam,” suav nrog kev ncaj ncees ntiag tug, vaj tse thiab cov nyiaj qiv nyiaj, hedge funds thiab ua li ntawd.
Tab sis muaj lus teb yooj yim dua.
Qhov teeb meem nrog 60/40 xyoo tas los tsis yog ntau cov khoom lag luam - tab sis cov ntawv cog lus. Peb cia siab tias cov khoom lag luam rau tank qee zaum. Yog vim li cas peb cia siab tias lawv yuav them nyiaj ntau rau peb mus ntev. Tab sis peb tsis xav tias daim ntawv cog lus yuav poob 18% hauv ib xyoos. Zoo heev rau stability.
Qhov ntawd yog qhov teeb meem loj hauv lub xyoo dhau los uas ploj lawm. Bonds nyuam qhuav khaws cia nrog kev nce nqi hauv xyoo 1960, thiab lawv poob nyiaj tiag tiag hauv xyoo 1940 thiab 1970s. Kev nce nyiaj nce siab ua rau nce cov paj laum, thiab ib tus neeg tuav cov ntawv cog lus ntev ntev ua rau ob lub sij hawm poob. Lawv daim coupon them nqi tsawg thiab tsawg dua hauv cov ntsiab lus tiag. Thiab lawv tsis tuaj yeem siv tag nrho cov txiaj ntsig tshiab, cov paj laum ntau dua vim tias lawv raug kaw rau hauv cov laus, cov nqi qis dua.
Lawv tau zoo dua nrog cov nyiaj ntsuab - suav nrog, hauv cov nqe lus peev, cov nqi qiv nyiaj, cov nyiaj khaws cia thiab nyiaj txiag lag luam. Phab ntsa Street ntxub "nyiaj ntsuab" tab sis, thov tias, txawm tias nws ruaj khov thiab muaj peev xwm, nws muaj kev txaus ntshai rov qab mus ntev. Cov neeg siv khoom yeej ib txwm raug yaum kom pauv lawv cov nyiaj los ntawm cov nyiaj ntsuab rau cov khoom lag luam uas tsim cov nqi - lossis raws li lawv hais, "rov qab." Cov tub lag luam feem ntau hais kom "muab cov nyiaj ntawd mus ua haujlwm." Tab sis xyoo tas los nws tau mus "ua haujlwm" thiab coj cov nyiaj hli tsis zoo ntawm 23%, raws li daim ntawv cog lus, nrog rau cov khoom lag luam, tau ua phem dua xyoo tas los dua li cov nqi nyiaj txiag.
Qhov no tsis yog ib qho kev tawm tsam. Qhov tseeb, niaj hnub Rip Van Winkle yuav zoo dua tawm ntawm nws cov nyiaj hauv Treasury bills dua 10-xyoo Treasury bonds rau ib qho kev xav tsis thoob 33 xyoo dhau los, los ntawm 1949 txog 1982. Qhov txawv tsis yog me ntsis, ib yam nkaus. Cov nqi luv luv tau tsim ob zaug ntawm tag nrho cov nyiaj rov qab rau lub sijhawm ntawd rau cov ntawv cog lus.
Warren Buffett tau muab cov lus qhia tias tom qab nws tuag nws txoj hmoov zoo yuav tsum tau nqis peev feem ntau hauv cov khoom lag luam tab sis nrog 10% hauv Cov Nqi Them Nqi - tsis yog daim ntawv cog lus. Tus kws pab tswv yim nyiaj txiag Askiv Andrew Smithers tau txais cov lus pom zoo zoo sib xws thaum nws tau ua qhov kev tshuaj xyuas ntev heev rau nws lub qub Cambridge University College (uas tau tsim nyob rau xyoo 1326, yog li peb tham ntev). Nyiaj ntsuab, tsis yog daim ntawv cog lus, muaj kev ntseeg siab dua rau cov khoom lag luam, Smithers pom. Nws qhov kev xaiv zoo tshaj rau 60/40 yog 80/20: 80% Tshuag, 20% nqi.
Lub caij no, Wall Street tuaj yeem tso tseg tsis ua txuj tias nws tsis nkag siab tias yog vim li cas 60/40 ua tsis tiav xyoo tas los. Nws paub tag nrho zoo. Cov nyiaj qiv nyiaj yuav luag lav tsis tau sai lossis tom qab vim tias lawv twb raug kaw hauv qhov tsis zoo tiag tiag, kev nce nqi hloov pauv hloov pauv. Thaum pib ntawm 2022, 10-xyoo Treasury daim ntawv cog lus muaj cov txiaj ntsig, lossis paj paj, ntawm 1.5%. Tsis tsuas yog Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve lub hom phiaj mus sij hawm ntev 2%, tab sis qhov tseeb tus nqi nce nqi thaum lub sij hawm yog 7%, thiab cov lag luam nyiaj tau txais nws. mus rau nruab nrab 2.6% nyob rau hauv kaum xyoo tom ntej. Inflation-protected Treasury bonds coj qhov kev npau taws ntxiv: Lawv kaw qhov tsis zoo tiag tiag cov paj laum. Lawv tau lav tias yuav poob lub zog yuav khoom thaum lub sijhawm.
Cov neeg ua lag luam muaj kev txom nyem nyob rau xyoo 1960 thiab 1970s tau tsim lub sijhawm laconic los piav txog lawv cov kev nqis peev uas tsis txaus ntseeg: "cov ntawv pov thawj ntawm kev txeeb." Lawv tsis ua koj nyiaj, lawv poob koj nyiaj.
Tej zaum Treasury bills yog qhov zoo dua rau cov khoom lag luam thaum lub sij hawm ntau dua li cov ntawv cog lus. Tej zaum tsis yog. Tab sis nws yuav sawv rau qhov laj thawj tias cov nqi - lossis kub, rau qhov teeb meem - tej zaum yuav zoo dua li daim ntawv cog lus yog tias tom kawg tau lees tias yuav raug nqi koj cov nyiaj.
"Kuv tsis yog neeg ntse," ib tug phooj ywg uas nyuam qhuav pib tswj nyiaj, "tab sis kuv tau sau ntawv rau tus neeg siv khoom tam sim no uas tsis muaj dab tsi [piv txwv li, ib qho bonds] tab sis luv luv thiab ultrashort bonds yog qhov ntse tshaj plaws uas kuv tau ua xyoo tas los. Tsis txhob zam tej yam yuav pom tseeb dua. "
Thaum lub sij hawm 60/40 cov ntaub ntawv poob qis ze li ntawm 20%, nws cov neeg siv khoom tsuas yog 6% mus rau 8%.
Source: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-where-the-60-40-could-really-fail-you-but-a-better-option-may-be-under-your-nose-6d14ec40?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo