Txawm li cas los xij, lwm qhov ntawm cov neeg ua lag luam-kev xav puzzle tau poob rau hauv qhov chaw los txhawb kev loj hlob ntawm US stock-market rally. Kuv tab tom xa mus rau qhov ntsuas ntsuas ntsuas cov tub ua lag luam kev ntseeg siab tias txhua qhov kev lag luam poob qis yuav sai sai tom qab rov qab los. Index, hu ua "US Buy-on-Dips Confidence Index,” tau tsim ob xyoo dhau los los ntawm Yale University's Robert Shiller. Nws yog raws li kev soj ntsuam txhua hli uas cov tub ua lag luam raug nug kom kwv yees kev lag luam kev taw qhia hnub tom qab 3% kev lag luam poob.
Kuv qhov kev txheeb xyuas ntawm cov ntaub ntawv qhia tau hais tias qhov ntsuas muaj qhov tsis sib xws. Ntawd yog, kev nyeem ntawv siab - kev ntseeg siab tias kev lag luam poob qis yuav ua raws li kev rov qab sai - yog qhov cim tsis zoo. Kev nyeem qis, qhov sib txawv, yog bullish.
Lub caij ntuj sov dhau los no qhov ntsuas tau qis dua 7% ntawm tag nrho lwm cov kev nyeem txhua hli txij li Shiller tau pib qhov kev tshawb fawb no hauv 1990s. Txawm hais tias nyob rau hauv nws tus kheej yog tsawg txaus los impress contrarians, nws kuj tseem txhawb kom qhov Performance index tsis dhia ntau txij thaum ntawd los. Cov qauv ib txwm yog rau bullishness dhia thaum twg lub khw pib rally. Tab sis qhov ntsuas tam sim no sawv ntawm 20 xwbth feem pua ntawm cov keeb kwm faib.
Qhov tseeb, qhov kev nyeem ntawv tshiab tshaj plaws txawm tias qis dua qhov tau sau npe hauv lub Peb Hlis 2020, nyob rau hauv qab ntawm cov dej tsaws tsag poob uas nrog rau thawj qhov kev kaw cia ntawm COVID-19 kis thoob qhov txhia chaw. Tab sis raws li lub caij ntuj sov ntawm 2022, koj yuav tsum rov qab mus rau lig 2018 thiab thaum ntxov 2019 mus nrhiav lwm lub sij hawm thaum Buy-on-Dips Confidence Index yog qis dua qhov chaw uas nws sawv tam sim no. Cov hli no tau sib txuam nrog hauv qab ntawm 19% + kev kho (dais lag luam) tshwm sim los ntawm Fed's lig 2018 tus nqi-hike lub voj voog.
Qhov kev ntsuas no tau nyeem ntau tshaj plaws nyob rau xyoo tas los no tuaj thaum Lub Yim Hli 2021, thaum nws nce mus rau 91st feem pua ntawm cov keeb kwm faib. Raws li yog tias peb xav tau ib qho kev ceeb toom, uas tuaj tsuas yog ob lub hlis ua ntej cov khoom lag luam thib ob thiab plaub lub hlis ua ntej kev lag luam dav tsoo nws sab saum toj.
Ob qho no tsuas yog cov ntsiab lus ntawm cov ntaub ntawv. Kev tsom xam ntau dua yog xav txog hauv cov lus hauv qab no, raws li cov ntaub ntawv txhua hli rau US Buy-on-Dips Confidence Index nyob rau ob lub xyoo dhau los.
| Buy-on-Dips Confidence Index theem yog nyob rau hauv… | Qhov nruab nrab S&P 500 nce ntxiv rau lub hlis tom ntej | Qhov nruab nrab S&P 500 nce 3 lub hlis tom ntej | Qhov nruab nrab S&P 500 nce 6 lub hlis tom ntej |
| Tsawg tshaj 25% ntawm kev nyeem keeb kwm | + 0.7% | + 2.4% | + 6.3% |
| Siab tshaj 25% ntawm kev nyeem keeb kwm | -0.4% | + 0.3% | + 2.1% |
Txawm hais tias qhov sib txawv ntawm qhov nruab nrab rov qab los yog qhov tseem ceeb, nws tseem ceeb heev uas yuav tsum tau hais tias tsis muaj kev lees paub. Kev xav tsis yog tib yam uas txav mus rau kev ua lag luam, tom qab tag nrho.
Tsis tas li ntawd, txawm tias qhov kev sib tw muaj zog yuav tshwm sim, peb tsis tuaj yeem paub tias nws yuav yog qhov pib ntawm lub khw muag nyuj tshiab lossis tsuas yog kev sib tw dais. Cov lus teb yuav nyob ntawm qhov tsawg kawg yog ib feem ntawm qhov qeeb lossis sai npaum li cas cov tub ua lag luam rov tau txais lawv txoj kev ntseeg siab tias kev lag luam poob qis yuav sai sai ua raws li kev rov qab los. Txog tam sim no, kev txheeb xyuas qhov tsis sib haum xeeb qhia tias qhov kev sib tw muaj zog yuav zoo li nyob rau lub asthiv tom ntej.
Mark Hulbert yog cov uas tau ua haujlwm rau MarketWatch li niaj zaus. Nws Hulbert Ratings taug qab cov ntawv xov xwm kev nqis peev uas them tus nqi them tus nqi yuav raug kuaj. Nws hu tau rau ntawm [email tiv thaiv]
ALos nyeem: Yuav ua li cas Powell pivoted deb ntawm Fed cov lus dovish thiab tanked lub khw
Plus: Vim li cas kev nce nqi yuav zoo li nyob saum ntuj-siab tsis hais tog twg yeej qhov nruab nrab
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-strong-new-evidence-that-aus-stock-market-rally-is-coming-soon-11667526884?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo
Nov yog cov ntaub ntawv pov thawj tshiab uas muaj zog tshaj plaws uas US stock-market rally yuav los sai sai no
Txawm li cas los xij, lwm qhov ntawm cov neeg ua lag luam-kev xav puzzle tau poob rau hauv qhov chaw los txhawb kev loj hlob ntawm US stock-market rally. Kuv tab tom xa mus rau qhov ntsuas ntsuas ntsuas cov tub ua lag luam kev ntseeg siab tias txhua qhov kev lag luam poob qis yuav sai sai tom qab rov qab los. Index, hu ua "US Buy-on-Dips Confidence Index,” tau tsim ob xyoo dhau los los ntawm Yale University's Robert Shiller. Nws yog raws li kev soj ntsuam txhua hli uas cov tub ua lag luam raug nug kom kwv yees kev lag luam kev taw qhia hnub tom qab 3% kev lag luam poob.
Kuv qhov kev txheeb xyuas ntawm cov ntaub ntawv qhia tau hais tias qhov ntsuas muaj qhov tsis sib xws. Ntawd yog, kev nyeem ntawv siab - kev ntseeg siab tias kev lag luam poob qis yuav ua raws li kev rov qab sai - yog qhov cim tsis zoo. Kev nyeem qis, qhov sib txawv, yog bullish.
Lub caij ntuj sov dhau los no qhov ntsuas tau qis dua 7% ntawm tag nrho lwm cov kev nyeem txhua hli txij li Shiller tau pib qhov kev tshawb fawb no hauv 1990s. Txawm hais tias nyob rau hauv nws tus kheej yog tsawg txaus los impress contrarians, nws kuj tseem txhawb kom qhov Performance index tsis dhia ntau txij thaum ntawd los. Cov qauv ib txwm yog rau bullishness dhia thaum twg lub khw pib rally. Tab sis qhov ntsuas tam sim no sawv ntawm 20 xwbth feem pua ntawm cov keeb kwm faib.
Qhov tseeb, qhov kev nyeem ntawv tshiab tshaj plaws txawm tias qis dua qhov tau sau npe hauv lub Peb Hlis 2020, nyob rau hauv qab ntawm cov dej tsaws tsag poob uas nrog rau thawj qhov kev kaw cia ntawm COVID-19 kis thoob qhov txhia chaw. Tab sis raws li lub caij ntuj sov ntawm 2022, koj yuav tsum rov qab mus rau lig 2018 thiab thaum ntxov 2019 mus nrhiav lwm lub sij hawm thaum Buy-on-Dips Confidence Index yog qis dua qhov chaw uas nws sawv tam sim no. Cov hli no tau sib txuam nrog hauv qab ntawm 19% + kev kho (dais lag luam) tshwm sim los ntawm Fed's lig 2018 tus nqi-hike lub voj voog.
Qhov kev ntsuas no tau nyeem ntau tshaj plaws nyob rau xyoo tas los no tuaj thaum Lub Yim Hli 2021, thaum nws nce mus rau 91st feem pua ntawm cov keeb kwm faib. Raws li yog tias peb xav tau ib qho kev ceeb toom, uas tuaj tsuas yog ob lub hlis ua ntej cov khoom lag luam thib ob thiab plaub lub hlis ua ntej kev lag luam dav tsoo nws sab saum toj.
Ob qho no tsuas yog cov ntsiab lus ntawm cov ntaub ntawv. Kev tsom xam ntau dua yog xav txog hauv cov lus hauv qab no, raws li cov ntaub ntawv txhua hli rau US Buy-on-Dips Confidence Index nyob rau ob lub xyoo dhau los.
Txawm hais tias qhov sib txawv ntawm qhov nruab nrab rov qab los yog qhov tseem ceeb, nws tseem ceeb heev uas yuav tsum tau hais tias tsis muaj kev lees paub. Kev xav tsis yog tib yam uas txav mus rau kev ua lag luam, tom qab tag nrho.
Tsis tas li ntawd, txawm tias qhov kev sib tw muaj zog yuav tshwm sim, peb tsis tuaj yeem paub tias nws yuav yog qhov pib ntawm lub khw muag nyuj tshiab lossis tsuas yog kev sib tw dais. Cov lus teb yuav nyob ntawm qhov tsawg kawg yog ib feem ntawm qhov qeeb lossis sai npaum li cas cov tub ua lag luam rov tau txais lawv txoj kev ntseeg siab tias kev lag luam poob qis yuav sai sai ua raws li kev rov qab los. Txog tam sim no, kev txheeb xyuas qhov tsis sib haum xeeb qhia tias qhov kev sib tw muaj zog yuav zoo li nyob rau lub asthiv tom ntej.
Mark Hulbert yog cov uas tau ua haujlwm rau MarketWatch li niaj zaus. Nws Hulbert Ratings taug qab cov ntawv xov xwm kev nqis peev uas them tus nqi them tus nqi yuav raug kuaj. Nws hu tau rau ntawm [email tiv thaiv]
ALos nyeem: Yuav ua li cas Powell pivoted deb ntawm Fed cov lus dovish thiab tanked lub khw
Plus: Vim li cas kev nce nqi yuav zoo li nyob saum ntuj-siab tsis hais tog twg yeej qhov nruab nrab
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-strong-new-evidence-that-aus-stock-market-rally-is-coming-soon-11667526884?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo