Nov yog Lub Sijhawm Ntev npaum li cas rau cov khoom lag luam kom rov qab los ntawm Bear Markets

Tojsiab

Nrog rau kev lag luam Tshuag ntawm ib qho ntawm nws qhov kev poob qis tshaj plaws hauv kaum xyoo ntawm kev muag khoom tsis tu ncua uas tau thawb S&P 500 ze li 20% qis dua nws cov ntaub ntawv siab, kev pheej hmoo nyiaj txiag tau nce siab - tab sis keeb kwm qhia tias tsis yog txhua lub lag luam dais ua rau kev poob mus ntev. thiab cov khoom lag luam feem ntau tuaj yeem thim rov qab rau xyoo tom ntej.

Cov Lus Tseem Ceeb

Qhov ntsuas ntsuas S&P 500 luv luv poob rau hauv lub lag luam dais Hnub Friday dhau los - ntawm ib qho taw tes qis dua 20% los ntawm nws qhov siab tshaj plaws nyob rau lub Ib Hlis - thiab txuas ntxiv mus ze ntawm thaj chaw ntawd raws li kev nce nqi nce nqi thiab nce nqi ua rau muaj kev ntshai poob nyiaj txiag.

Kev lag luam dais kawg yog nyob rau lub Peb Hlis 2020, thaum tus kab mob kis thoob qhov txhia chaw tau xa Asmeskas kev lag luam mus rau kev lag luam poob qis, tab sis qhov kev poob qis tsis zoo li luv luv piv rau lwm tus yav dhau los (lub lag luam dais nruab nrab ntawm 2007 thiab 2009 kav ntev li 546 hnub).

"Tsis muaj ob lub lag luam dais zoo ib yam," sau tseg Bespoke Investment Group, taw qhia tias 8 ntawm 14 lub khw muag khoom ua ntej txij thaum Tsov Rog Ntiaj Teb Zaum II tau ua ntej kev poob qis, thaum lwm qhov 6 tsis tau.

Thaum S&P 500 ntaus rau 20% qhov pib, cov khoom lag luam feem ntau poob los ntawm lwm 12% thiab nws yuav siv qhov ntsuas nruab nrab ntawm 95 hnub los tsoo qhov kawg ntawm lub lag luam dais, raws li cov ntaub ntawv Bespoke.

Nyob rau hauv ntau tshaj li ib nrab ntawm 14 dais kev lag luam txij li xyoo 1945, S&P 500 tau ntaus tus taw tes qis hauv ob lub hlis ntawm qhov pib poob qis dua 20% qhov pib-thiab cov khoom xa rov qab tau zoo heev, Bespoke cov ntsiab lus tawm, nrog rau qhov ntsuas qhov nruab nrab ntawm 7. % thiab ze li ntawm 18%, feem, dhau 6- thiab 12-hli lub sijhawm.

Yog tias Asmeskas kev lag luam tuaj yeem zam kev poob rau hauv kev lag luam, ces cov khoom lag luam yuav nyob rau hauv txoj haujlwm zoo dua mus tom ntej: Dais kev lag luam uas tshwm sim ua ntej kev lag luam kev lag luam tau ntev dua (ntev 449 hnub piv rau 198 hnub tsis muaj kev lag luam) nrog kev poob qis (qhov nruab nrab. poob ntawm 35% piv rau 28%), raws li Bespoke.

Tus Keeb Kwm Tseem Ceeb

Nws tau ntau xyoo lawm txij li thaum lub lag luam Tshuag tau muaj xws li ntev streak ntawm hnyav poob. Dow Jones Industrial Nruab Nrab tsis ntev los no tau tshaj tawm nws lub lim tiam thib yim - nws qhov kev poob qis tshaj plaws txij li lub sijhawm ntawm Kev Nyuaj Siab Loj hauv xyoo 1932, thaum S&P 500 thiab tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite tau qis dua rau xya lub lis piam ncaj, lawv qhov kev poob qis tshaj plaws txij li thaum. dot-com tsoo hauv 2001.

Txaus Ntshai Qhov Tseeb

Plaub zaug kawg Nasdaq tshaj tawm xws li kev poob qis ntawm 1% lossis ntau dua yog xyoo 1973, 1980, 1990 thiab 2001, raws li Bespoke cov ntaub ntawv. Hauv txhua qhov piv txwv, cov streaks tau tshwm sim "txawm yog ua ntej lossis ntxov ntxov rau kev lag luam poob qis."

Dab Tsi Los Saib

S&P 500 tsuas yog tshaj tawm qhov poob ntawm xya lub lis piam lossis ntau dua peb zaug - hauv 1970, 1980 thiab 2001, raws li Nationwide tus thawj coj ntawm kev tshawb fawb peev, Mark Hackett. Nws hais tias "Hmoov tsis zoo, qhov ntsuas tau tsis zoo nyob rau 12 lub hlis tom ntej txhua lub sijhawm," nws hais. Lub index yuav tank los ntawm nruab nrab ntawm 11% thiab 24% yog tias kev lag luam poob rau hauv kev lag luam nyiaj txiag nyob rau yav tom ntej, cov tuam txhab loj hauv Wall Street tau ceeb toom.

Kev Nkag Siab Hais

"Kev pheej hmoo nyiaj txiag tsis tu ncua, lwm Fed txoj cai yuam kev thiab kev poob nyiaj txiag ntshai tau ua rau cov neeg ua lag luam tsis txaus siab," nrog rau S&P 500 luv luv poob rau hauv khw lag luam, hais tias Edward Moya, tus kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas kev lag luam loj rau Oanda. Kev muag dav dav yuav zoo li "tsuas yog nrawm" raws li cov tub ua lag luam yuav ceev faj kom txog thaum Fed "pib qhia tias lawv txhawj xeeb txog nyiaj txiag thiab lawv yuav tsum tsis txhob nruj heev."

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