Ntawm no yog nyob deb npaum li cas cov nqi tsev tau teeb tsa kom poob raws li cov nqi nce mus, raws li lub tuam txhab kev kwv yees no

Nrog kev lag luam hauv flux thiab tus nqi nce, ib lo lus nug loj yog dai ntawm ib qho kev lag luam uas tau tso nyiaj rau hauv hnab ris ntawm Asmeskas tau ntau xyoo. Thiab peb hu nruab hnub los ntawm Capital Economics 'pab pawg thawj coj saib xyuas nyiaj txiag Neil Shearing hais tias tsis txhob cia siab tias xyoo 2008 zoo li vaj tse-nqi poob.

Qhov ntawd txawm hais tias "qhov tseeb ntawm cov nqi tsev hauv ntiaj teb tam sim no tau ua haujlwm zoo dua lawv cov kev ua haujlwm ntev, thiab qhov kev nce siab hauv cov nqi tsis ntev los no zoo li qhov txaus ntshai zoo ib yam li qhov tshwm sim hauv kev khiav mus txog qhov teeb meem nyiaj txiag thoob ntiaj teb," hais Shearing hauv ib daim ntawv. .

Hauv Teb Chaws Asmeskas, daim ntawv thov qiv nyiaj poob qis 28% los ntawm lawv qhov siab tshaj plaws, kev muag tsev tshiab tawm 17% thiab vaj tsev pib nqis 13%. Nws tau hais tias qhov ntawd kuj tau ua si thoob plaws UK, Canada, Australia, New Zealand thiab Sweden, nws hais.

Nws daim ntawv qhia tom ntej no qhia txog tus nqi vaj tsev nyob thoob ntiaj teb, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog kub hauv Canada, Australia thiab New Zealand, tab sis kuj nce ob tus lej hauv Asmeskas thiab UK.

Qhov sib txawv loj ntawm tam sim no thiab bubbly 2008 yog tias cov nuj nqis qiv nyiaj tau nce mus tom kawg. Cov tswv tsev daig nrog kev ncaj ncees tsis zoo thiab yuam kom muag tau coj mus rau qhov qis qis ntawm cov haujlwm. Tab sis niaj hnub no kev lag luam vaj tsev tsis tshua muaj txiaj ntsig thiab cov kev cai muab tso rau tom qab xyoo 2008 tau tso cov tsev txhab nyiaj zoo dua.

Shearing tau hais tias "Xwb, qhov kev nce siab kawg ntawm cov nqi tsev tau raug txhawb los ntawm qib qis heev ntawm tus nqi paj laum (thiab tiag tiag)," Shearing hais.

Kev nce nqi yuav zaum ua ntej cov neeg yuav khoom thiab cov tswv tsev xav tau nyiaj txiag. "Thiab muaj cov cim qhia tias qhov nce ntawm cov nqi qiv nyiaj - thiab kev cia siab tias yuav nce ntxiv tuaj - twb ua rau muaj kev poob qis hauv kev lag luam vaj tsev nyob thoob plaws kev lag luam siab," Shearing hais.

Peev Economics yav dhau los tau hais txog plaub theem ntawm kev poob vaj tse - 1) Kev poob qis ntawm kev lag luam vaj tsev tsis zoo 2) Kev ntsuas ntawm cov neeg yuav khoom poob rov qab 3) Kev ntsuas ntawm kev ua lag luam vaj tsev pib poob, thiab 4) Cov nqi tsev lawv tus kheej poob.

Shearing tau hais tias Asmeskas, UK Canada, Australia, New Zealand thiab Sweden yog nyob rau theem 3 ntawm cov txheej txheem ntawd. Thiab piv nrog rau nruab nrab xyoo 2000s, qhov no yog "tshwm sim sai dua, nrog rau feem ntau cov cim qhia pom kev poob qis dua," nws hais.

"Qhov ntawd tsis tau txhais hais tias peb yuav tsum cia siab tias tib qhov ntsuas ntawm tus nqi poob rau theem plaub raws li tau pom nyob ib puag ncig kev kub ntxhov nyiaj txiag thoob ntiaj teb. Lub macro backdrop thiab kev ua lag luam zoo sib txawv rau nruab nrab-2000s, thiab qhov kev xav niaj hnub no txawv ntawm kev lag luam, "hais Shearing.

Yog li, nws qhov kev twv ua ntej yog dab tsi? Tus nqi vaj tsev loj tshaj plaws yuav poob rau cov khw muag khoom kim tshaj plaws - 20% hauv Canada thiab New Zealand, ua raws li 15% hauv Australia thiab 10% mus rau 15% hauv Sweden. Tab sis lub UK yuav pom me me poob ntawm 5% mus rau 10% thiab nyob rau hauv Teb Chaws Asmeskas, cia siab tias txog 5% poob, said Shearing.

Tab sis qhov tseeb hais tias "qhov taw qhia nyob rau hauv thawj peb theem ntawm kev poob qis tau dov mus sai heev qhia tias peb yuav tsum cia siab tias yuav pom cov nqi poob hauv tag nrho cov kev lag luam no sai sai," nws hais.

Qhov xwm zoo yog tias qhov kev kub ntxhov ntawm qhov ntsuas ntawm xyoo 2008 yog qhov tsis zoo li, nrog rau kev hloov pauv vaj tsev nyob hauv qhov zoo li yuav chais 0.5% mus rau 2% tawm ntawm US, UK, Canada, Australia thiab New Zealand tag nrho cov khoom lag luam hauv ob lub hlis tom ntej. xyoo. Tab sis tsis txhob saib rau Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve lossis Bank of England tshwj xeeb tshaj yog txhawm rau txo qis ntawm cov nqi, Shearing ceeb toom.

Nyeem: Kuv yog tus thawj coj ntawm kev kwv yees rau National Association of Realtors. Nov yog 6 yam koj yuav tsum paub txog kev lag luam vaj tsev tam sim no

Lub buzz

Tesla 
TSLA,
+ 0.96%
hais tias nws xa txog 255,000 lub tsheb nyob rau lub quarter thib ob, piv rau lub quarter dhau los ntawm 310,000.

Lub Zog Hluav Taws Xob Tshiab
NFE,
-2.22%
yuav muag 11 cov khoom siv hluav taws xob ua kua (LNG) cov nkoj tsim kho rau JV tshiab nrog Apollo Global Management
APO,
+ 0.77%
nyob rau hauv ib tug deal muaj nqis ntawm $2 billion. 

Allen & Lub Tuam Txhab lub caij ntuj sov txhua xyoo rau cov neeg nplua nuj pib hnub Tuesday hauv Sun Valley Idaho, nrog Tesla CEO Elon Musk, Amazon's
AMZN,
+ 2.93%
CEO Andy Jassy thiab qee tus Disney
DIS,
-0.25%
cov thawj coj ntawm cov npe qhua.

Nyeem: Ray Dalio tawm tsam Asmeskas cov neeg pej xeem, ceeb toom Russia yuav yog 'tsawg dua' hauv Ukraine ua tsov rog

Ib lub Tuam Tshoj cov kev pabcuam kev yuav khoom tus tswj xyuas qhov ntsuas rebounded nyob rau lub Rau Hli. Hauv Teb Chaws Asmeskas, lub Hoobkas thiab cov khoom lag luam tseem ceeb tau xaj tom qab hauv ib lub lis piam uas xaus rau lub Rau Hli cov ntaub ntawv ua haujlwm. Australia nce cov paj laum rau peb lub hlis ncaj.

Tub ceev xwm Chicago muaj ib tus neeg txaus siab rau kev saib xyuas tom qab ib tug neeg tua phom tau qhib kev tua ntawm Plaub Hlis Ntuj lub Xya Hli mus txog rau hauv thaj chaw muaj nyiaj nplua nuj, tua rau 30 thiab raug mob XNUMX.

Cov kev lag luam

Asmeskas cov khoom lag luam
DJIA,
-1.57%

SPX,
-1.05%

COMP,
+ 0.47%
ua tsaug, raws li tus duas
DXY,
+ 1.45%
rallies mus rau 19-xyoo siab, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog tawm tsam euro
EURUSD,
-1.64%,
nruab nrab a tsov rog-driven natural-gas teebmeem rau cheeb tsam. Cov qoob loo
TUBMUSD 10Y,
2.801%
poob, tooj
HG 00,
-5.33%
is ncua nws txoj kev poob, WTI crude
CL.1,
-9.91%
yog swb, thaum Brent
BRN00,
-10.76%
yog pom loj ntog.

Daim phiaj qhia

Cov kws tshuaj ntsuam Citigroup hais tias Brent crude tuaj yeem poob mus rau $ 65 ib chim thaum kawg ntawm lub xyoo, thiab $ 45 / bbl. los ntawm qhov kawg-2023, "tsis tuaj yeem cuam tshuam los ntawm OPEC + thiab kev poob qis hauv kev lag luam roj luv luv," raws li pab pawg coj los ntawm Francesco Martoccia.

Citi sib cav hais tias thaum cov pov thawj keeb kwm qhia tau hais tias cov roj xav tau tsuas yog mus rau qhov tsis zoo hauv ntiaj teb kev lag luam phem tshaj plaws, tus nqi "poob rau txhua qhov kev lag luam rov qab mus rau kwv yees li tus nqi marginal."

Kuj nyeem: Kev lag luam poob qis tuaj yeem nqa roj mus txog $ 55, hais tias BCA Research

Cov tickers

Cov no yog cov neeg tshawb nrhiav saum toj kawg nkaus ntawm MarketWatch thaum 6 teev sawv ntxov Eastern:

Random nyeem

Tom qab qhov tshwm sim epic ntawm "Stranger Yam 4," Metallica cov hlau hnyav 1980s ntaus "Master of Puppets" yog topping cov kab kos.

Lub hnub qub Keanu Reeves '"chav kawm ua yeeb yam" cuam tshuam nrog tus kiv cua hluas tau kis mus.

Xav paub kom paub pib thaum ntxov thiab raug kho kom txog thaum qhib lub tswb nrov, tab sis sau npe tuaj ntawm no kom nws tau xa nws ib zaug rau koj lub npov email. Lub emailed yuav xa tawm thaum txog 7: 30 teev sawv ntxov.

Xav paub ntau ntxiv rau hnub tom ntej? Sau npe rau Lub Barron Hnub, tag kis sawv ntxov piav qhia rau cov tub ua lag luam, suav nrog kev tawm tswv yim tshwj xeeb los ntawm Barron thiab MarketWatch sau ntawv.