Nov yog cov cim qhia tias kev lag luam dais-kev sib tw hauv cov khoom lag luam yuav tsis kav ntev - Citi

"Kev sib tw ua lag luam feem ntau yog kev xav tau, vim tias kev ua lag luam tsuas yog poob qis," sau Citi Tshawb Fawb cov tswv yim coj los ntawm Dirk Willer, tus thawj coj tswj hwm thiab tus thawj coj ntawm kev lag luam tawm tswv yim, hauv tsab ntawv ceeb toom rau hnub Thursday. "Qhov tseem ceeb tshaj, ntau qhov kev sib tw dais-kev lag luam tau tsav los ntawm kev cia siab tias Fed tuaj rau kev cawm. Qhov tam sim no tsis txawv, raws li Fed pivot piav qhia tau yog ib qho tseem ceeb catalyst. " 

Tshwj xeeb, daim duab hauv qab no qhia tau hais tias tus AAII Bull-Bear indicator, ib qho ntawm cov kev soj ntsuam xyuas cov neeg ua lag luam kev xav, yog yuav luag rov qab mus rau theem uas dais kev lag luam rallies nce siab, nrog kev cia siab tias cov nqi khoom lag luam yuav nce ntxiv rau rau lub hlis tom ntej, nce 1.2 feem pua ​​​​ntawm cov ntsiab lus rau 33.3% hauv lub lim tiam ntawm Lub Yim Hli 15, thaum lub sij hawm poob siab nce 0.5 feem pua ​​​​cov ntsiab lus rau 37.2. %.

Lub caij no, SKEW Performance index rau S&P 500, uas ntsuas qhov sib txawv ntawm tus nqi ntawm cov khoom lag luam uas tiv thaiv kev lag luam poob thiab txoj cai kom tau txais txiaj ntsig los ntawm kev sib tw, normalized yuav luag ntau npaum li nws ua hauv nruab nrab dais kev lag luam rally (saib daim duab hauv qab no ), hais tias Citi Research. Qhov Performance index tuaj yeem yog tus neeg sawv cev rau cov neeg ua lag luam kev xav thiab kev hloov pauv.

Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve cov neeg ua haujlwm hauv Lub Xya Hli tau pom zoo tias Nws yog ib qho tsim nyog kom txav lawv cov txiaj ntsig tus nqi siab txaus kom qeeb kev lag luam los tiv thaiv kev nce nqi siab, thaum ua rau muaj kev txhawj xeeb tias lawv tuaj yeem ua nruj rau txoj cai tswj hwm nyiaj txiag los ntawm ntau tshaj qhov tsim nyog, raws li cov lus ceeb toom ntawm Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Qhib Kev Lag Luam Pawg Neeg Ua Haujlwm Lub Xya Hli 26-27 lub rooj sib tham tshaj tawm hnub Wednesday. 

Saib: Powell qhia rau Jackson Hole tias kev lag luam poob qis yuav tsis nres Fed kev tawm tsam kev nce nqi siab

Tom qab tshaj tawm cov lus qhia ntawm lub rooj sib tham, Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve Bank ntawm St. Louis Thawj Tswj Hwm James Bullard tau hais tias nws tab tom hloov mus rau lwm qhov kev nce qib loj ntawm 75 lub hauv paus ntsiab lus ntawm lub rooj sib tham hauv central bank lub Cuaj Hli. Lub caij no, Richmond Fed Thawj Tswj Hwm Tom Barkin tau hais tias Fed "yuav ua li cas nws yuav siv tau" los txhawb kev nce nqi rov qab mus rau nws lub hom phiaj 2%, raws li ib daim ntawv qhia Bloomberg, thaum Reuters qhia tias Barkin hais tias Fed qhov kev siv zog yuav tsum tsis yog "kev puas tsuaj."

Saib: Tsis txhob nyeem yuam kev Fed: Nws tsis tau txias taw txog kev sib tw nce nqi mus rau hauv av

Raws li Citi Kev Tshawb Fawb, kev sib tw dais-kev ua lag luam hais txog kev sib tw sib npaug los yog loj dua 10% uas tshwm sim ntawm lub ncov thiab lub trough. "Yog tias qhov qis qis tshiab tau ua tom qab 10% kev sib tw, qhov kev sib tw tom ntej ntawm ntau dua 10% yog kev sib tw ua lag luam sib cais (los yog lub khw muag nyuj, yog tias tsis muaj qhov qis dua tshiab tom qab)," sau cov tswv yim. 

Lub S&P 500
SPX,
-1.29%
tau nce 15.4% los ntawm nws 52-lub lim tiam qis ntawm 3666.77 thaum Lub Rau Hli 16, thaum Dow Jones Industrial Nruab Nrab
DJIA,
-0.86%
rallied 12.9%, thiab NASDAQ Composite
COMP,
-2.01%
dhia 19.4% txij li thaum lawv nruab nrab Lub Rau Hli qis, raws li Dow Jones Market Data. Nyob rau hauv tag nrho, Citigroup tau sau tseg peb qhov ntsuas tau ntsib 17% kev sib tw hauv 42 hnub ua lag luam dhau los txij li Lub Rau Hli 16. 

Asmeskas cov khoom lag luam ua tiav lub lim tiam qis dua. Dow Jones Muaj Nruab Nrab
DJIA,
-0.86%
poob 292.30 cov ntsiab lus, lossis 0.9%, kom tiav ntawm 33,706.74. . S&P 500
SPX,
-1.29%
tau nqis 55.26 cov ntsiab lus, lossis 1.3%, kom tiav ntawm 4,228.48. Lub Nasdaq Composite
COMP,
-2.01%
poob 260.13 ntsiab lus, lossis 2.0%, rau 12,705.22.