Ntawm no yog 7 Tus Saib Xyuas Lub Neej

Nrog rau kev poob qis yuav tshwm sim ntawm qee kis, peb yuav tsom peb cov kev xav niaj hnub no ntawm kev poob nyiaj txiag-resistant cov nyiaj faib tawm.

Nrog rau tag nrho cov lus hais ntawm "muab tsaws" lossis txawm tias "tsis tsaws" - npau suav phem qhov xwm txheej uas kev lag luam ua rau tsis zoo - peb cov neeg tsis sib haum xeeb yuav rov qab mus. Thiab hwm tus yield nkhaus.

Hauv kev lag luam ib txwm muaj, daim ntawv cog lus ntev ntev yuav them ntau dua li cov teeb meem luv luv. Tom qab tag nrho, ntau lub sijhawm, ntau yam uas tuaj yeem ua yuam kev. Uas yog vim li cas koj thiab kuv yog smartly npaj rau kev lag luam, txawm hais tias ntawm qhov tseeb hais txog nyiaj txiag yog dab tsi.

Daim ntawv cog lus 10-xyoo Nyiaj Txiag tau them tsawg dua nws cov kwv tij 2 xyoos rau ntau lub hlis thiab suav. Qhov no yog vim li cas txaus rau peb cov nyiaj tau los ua lag luam yuav tsum ceev faj!

Peb kev poob nyiaj txiag hack? Tsawg-volatility cov nyiaj faib tawm.

"Low vol" yog ib qho kev lag luam buzzword thaum lub sij hawm txaus ntshai. Thiab rau qhov laj thawj zoo - nws ua haujlwm. Cia peb coj tus dais 2022-23 ua piv txwv. Lub pob tawb qis tau ua ntau "tsis zoo" ntau dua li kev lag luam dav dav.

Yuav ua li cas peb thiaj nrhiav tau cov khoom lag luam qis qis? Zoo, peb saib rau qis "beta," uas yog ntau npaum li cas (lossis tsawg npaum li cas!) kev nqis peev txav piv rau qee qhov ntsuas. Yog li ib txwm muaj, nrog cov khoom lag luam, beta feem ntau ntsuas cov khoom lag luam tawm tsam S&P 500.

Piv txwv li: Wb hais tias ib lub Tshuag muaj beta ntawm 0.75. Qhov ntawd txhais tau tias, hais dav dav, thaum S&P 500 poob los ntawm 1% hauv ib hnub, cov khoom lag luam yuav tsuas yog poob los ntawm 0.75%. Nws tsis tshua muaj qhov ua tau zoo tshaj plaws ntawm txhua hnub, tab sis dhau sijhawm, qis-beta cov khoom lag luam feem ntau muaj ntau cov khoom lag luam calmer.

Cia wb tham txog xya tus neeg them nyiaj ruaj ntseg uas tau txais 4.4% rau 6.3% thiab txav mus tsawg tshaj qhov kev lag luam dav.

Utilities

Ob peb yam hais tias "tsawg-volatility" thiab "kev poob qis-tiv taus" ntau dua li cov khoom siv hluav taws xob, uas tuaj yeem ua rau lub suab nrov vim tias lawv ua haujlwm li cas - hluav taws xob, roj av, thiab dej - yog qhov tseem ceeb ntawm lub neej.

Peb cov neeg siv khoom siv hluav taws xob kos tawm ntau lub thawv tam sim no:

• OGE Zog (OGE, 4.5% tawm los) yuav tsum yog ib tug paub lub npe yog tias koj yog ib tug tus nyeem ntawv tsis tu ncua. OGE tsis ntev los no tau koom ua ke nws txoj kev lag luam nruab nrab nrog Zog Hloov LP (ET) los ua ib qho hluav taws xob ua si dawb; nws lub tuam txhab OG&E (Oklahoma Gas & Electric) tam sim no ua haujlwm kwv yees li 900,000 tus neeg siv khoom thoob plaws Oklahoma thiab Arkansas. Yooj yim muab: Nws yog lub tuam txhab tswj hwm zoo uas khaws cov nqi qis thiab cov nyiaj faib tawm. Nws yog tus neeg ua haujlwm zoo, ib yam nkaus, nrog rau ib xyoos (0.63) thiab tsib xyoos (0.67) betas uas qhia tias cov khoom lag luam yog kwv yees li ib feem peb tsis hloov pauv ntau dua li kev lag luam dav. Tu siab, zoo li zaum kawg kuv tau npog OGE, cov Tshuag tseem txwv tsis pub kim.
• Pinnacle West Capital (PNW, 4.7% tawm los) tej zaum yuav zoo li ib Business Development Company (BDC), tab sis nws yog ib qho hluav taws xob hluav taws xob uas ua haujlwm ze li ntawm 1.3 lab Arizona cov neeg siv khoom ntawm nws Arizona Public Service thiab Bright Canyon Energy subsidiaries. Ntxiv rau qhov muaj txiaj ntsig zoo, nws muaj ib xyoos (lub sijhawm luv luv) beta ntawm 0.70, thiab tsib xyoos (ntev) beta ntawm tsuas yog 0.43 - tom kawg txhais tau tias dhau tsib xyoos dhau los, PNW tau ua. tsawg dua ib nrab raws li qhov tsis sib haum xeeb raws li kev lag luam dav! Tsis phem. Tab sis nws tseem mred los ntawm ib kev tswj xyuas los ntawm ob peb xyoos dhau los; cov nqi hluav taws xob tau tshaj tawm 21-cent-per-share tsis nyob rau hauv lub quarter dhau los.
• NorthWestern Corporation (NWS, 4.4% yield) qhia txog kev loj hlob hauv qhov chaw siv hluav taws xob uas nws hnyav hauv lub zog huv. NWE hais tias 44% ntawm lub zog uas nws muab rau South Dakota yog los ntawm cov haujlwm cua, thiab 59% ntawm nws tiam nyob rau hauv Montana yog los ntawm qhov chaw tsis muaj carbon. (Nws kuj tseem muaj zog rau qhov chaw ntawm Nebraska.) Ib zaug ntxiv, koj tsis tuaj yeem thov rau cov khoom lag luam ruaj khov, muab ib- thiab tsib xyoos betas ntawm 0.45 thiab 0.46, raws li. Tab sis nws raug nqi rau kev ua tiav, ntawm tus nqi / kev loj hlob-rau-cov nyiaj tau los ntawm 4 (qhov twg txhua yam saum toj no yog suav tias yog overpriced). Kom meej meej, cov tub ua lag luam twb tau piled rau hauv Tshuag nrhiav kev nyab xeeb.

Neeg Siv Khoom Siv Staples

Txhua me ntsis raws li qhov tsim nyog xws li hluav taws xob, nat-gas thiab dej yog zaub mov, khoom siv chav dej thiab-zoo, luam yeeb.

OK, tej zaum koj yuav tsis tas xav txog kev haus luam yeeb yog qhov tsim nyog, tab sis cov tuam txhab muag luam yeeb paub tseeb ua zoo li cov neeg siv khoom staples. Thiab qhov ntawd yog qhov zoo.

Philip Morris International (PM, 5.2% tawm los) yog ib lub npe loj tshaj plaws hauv luam yeeb, muag Marlboro thoob ntiaj teb, nrog rau Parliament, Chesterfield thiab ntau lwm hom luam yeeb.

Tab sis dab tsi ua rau PM nthuav yog nws lub hom phiaj ntawm kev ua kom tsis muaj pa luam yeeb los ntawm 2025. Philip Morris tau nthuav dav nws cov khoom lag luam tsis muaj pa luam yeeb kom tau raws li cov ntsiab lus: Iqos, Lil, Veeba, Shiro. Thiab tsis ntev los no, nws tau txais Swedish Match, uas ua rau Snus nicotine pouches, moist snuff thiab lwm yam khoom.

Thiab txawm hais tias cov khoom lag luam luam yeeb tau nce tas li, PM cov khoom lag luam tseem muaj kev poob qis thiab tsis muaj pov thawj. Lub tuam txhab ib xyoos beta ntawm 0.76 thiab tsib xyoos beta ntawm 0.71 qhia tias kev nqis peev hauv Philip Morris cuam tshuam ntau lub hiav txwv zoo dua li S&P 500. A 5%-plus tawm los kuj tseem ua rau cov tub ua lag luam txaus siab thaum lawv paub tias tus nqi nce tuaj yeem yog nyias.

Ntxiv dua thiab, koj tab tom yuav siab rau qhov kev tiv thaiv no.

Tsawg kev txhawj xeeb los ntawm tus nqi saib yog Universal Corp. (UVV, 6.2% yield), uas yog ib qho kev haus luam yeeb tiag tiag. Qhov ntawd yog vim nws tsis tsim luam yeeb - nws muab cov luam yeeb uas nkag mus rau hauv cov luam yeeb. Tshwj xeeb, nws yog tus xa khoom rau cov neeg tsim khoom thoob plaws 30 lub tuam txhab ntawm tsib lub teb chaws. Thiab nws txoj kev lag luam tau nthuav dav ntxiv los ntawm kev ua haujlwm sib cais uas suav nrog FruitSmart, Shank's Extracts thiab Silva International.

Nws yog qhov zoo nkauj tho txawv, tom qab-tus-scenes ua si hauv cov neeg siv khoom staples. Thiab nws ua zoo li nws. Nws tsib xyoos beta ntawm 0.70 yog qhov tsawg txaus, thiab 0.42 ib xyoos beta yog pw tsaug zog.

Nyiaj txiag

Cov khoom lag luam nyiaj txiag yog qhov kawg ntawm kev lag luam-keeb kwm, cov no yog tsis cov khoom lag luam koj xav kom muaj nyob rau hauv kev lag luam poob qis.

Tab sis koj tsis tuaj yeem xaiv ib lub txhab nyiaj ol ' thiab vam tias yuav ua tau zoo hauv kev poob qis.

Illinois-headquartered insurer RLI Corp. (RLI, 6.3% yield) yog lub tuam txhab tuav pov hwm tshwj xeeb uas muab kev tuav pov hwm kev lag luam, kev tuav pov hwm tus kheej thiab daim ntawv cog lus ruaj khov, ntawm lwm yam khoom. Nws txoj kev loj hlob kev tuav pov hwm cov cuab yeej cuab tam tau txais kev txaus siab ntawm lig - ib qho kev qhia tias RLI tsis yog ib qho chaw kom tau txais cov nyiaj faib siab thiab tsis muaj zog (0.55 ib xyoos beta, 0.42 tsib xyoos beta), tab sis muaj peev xwm loj hlob mus ntev. . Nws yog tsim nyog sau cia, txawm li cas los xij, tias cov qoob loo yog hnyav heev los ntawm nyiaj faib tshwj xeeb. RLI tau them $ 8.04 hauv cov nyiaj faib rau 12 lub hlis dhau los, tab sis $ 7.00 ntawm qhov ntawd yog qhov tshwj xeeb them. Ntawm ib sab, cov nyiaj faib tshwj xeeb no tau tshwm sim rau xyoo kawg thiab tso cai rau RLI them nyiaj ntau dua thaum nws cov txiaj ntsig tso cai; Ntawm qhov tod tes, koj tsis tuaj yeem suav tag nrho 6%-ntxiv rau cov txiaj ntsig xyoo hauv thiab xyoo tawm.

Northwest Bancshares (NWBI, 5.6% yield) yog tus neeg them nyiaj ntau dua, thiab txhua feem ntawm nws 5.6% cov txiaj ntsig yog los ntawm cov nyiaj faib tsis tu ncua. NWBI yog lub tuam txhab tuav nyiaj hauv cheeb tsam Northwest Bank, uas ua haujlwm 142 lub chaw pabcuam hauv zej zog hauv Ohio, Pennsylvania, Indiana thiab New York. Dab tsi ua rau NWBI qhov kev lag luam muaj zog dua piv rau cov nyiaj txiag feem ntau yog nws qhov kev qiv nyiaj qis dua, tsis hais txog qhov qis qis heev ntawm 0.50 (ib xyoos) thiab 0.59 (tsib xyoos).

Brett Owens yog tus thawj coj ua nqes peev rau Contrarian OutlookCov. Yog xav paub cov nyiaj tau los zoo dua, tau txais koj daim ntawv theej dawb tshaj daim ntawv ceeb toom tshwj xeeb tshaj plaws: Koj Cov Nyiaj Txiaj Ntsig Thaum Ntxov: Cov Nyiaj Them Loj Loj—Txhua Lub Hlis—Txiv Mus Ib Txhis.

Kev tshaj tawm: tsis muaj