Hang Seng tseem nyob hauv dais lag luam thaj chaw txawm tias lub hli zoo tshaj plaws txij li xyoo 1998

Hong Kong tus qauv ntsuas ntsuas tau nce 26.6% thaum lub Kaum Ib Hlis - qhov Hang Seng Index nce siab tshaj txhua hli txij thaum Lub Kaum Hli 1998, lossis ze rau qhov kawg ntawm Asian nyiaj txiag teebmeem 24 xyoo dhau los.

Tab sis qhov ntsuas tseem nyob hauv thaj chaw lag luam dais, uas txhais tau tias poob 20% los ntawm qhov siab tsis ntev los no, sawv ntawm qhov poob ntawm 20.45% poob xyoo-rau-hnub txij li lub Kaum Ob Hlis 2.

Hong Kong kev lag luam, suav nrog nws cov khw muag khoom lag luam, tau raug cuam tshuam los ntawm Beijing txoj cai ncua sij hawm xoom-Covid uas tau kaw cov neeg taug kev los ntawm Tuam Tshoj av loj thiab dampened neeg kev ntseeg siab. Shares teev nyob rau hauv Hong Kong tau whipsawed ntawm muag-offs thiab rallies tsis pub dhau ib hnub ua lag luam ntawm cov lus xaiv tsis lees paub uas qhia txog kev hloov pauv hauv Tuam Tshoj txoj cai.

Lub volatility nyob rau hauv Hong Kong Tshuag lag luam, txawm li cas los, hnub rov qab txawm ntau tshaj li xyoo no. Cov kws tshaj lij ntawm Goldman Sachs tau hais los ntawm Lub Ob Hlis 2021 txog Lub Kaum Hli 2022, Hang Seng Performance index pom "kev ua haujlwm zoo. kho,” uas lub tuam txhab txhais tau tias poob ntawm 40% lossis ntau dua.

Lub sijhawm ntawd, HSI poob 53% los ntawm qhov siab tshaj-rau-trough, Goldman cov kws tshaj lij tau sau tseg.

"Qhov no yog qhov tseem ceeb tshaj plaws kev lag luam muag txij li qhov kev tsis sib haum xeeb thaum lub sij hawm Ntiaj Teb Nyiaj Txiag Ntiaj Teb Tsov Rog, kuj tau muab qhov kev poob qis rau hauv Cov Txheej Txheem Txheej Txheem rau peb cov kev faib tawm," lub tuam txhab Tuam Tshoj tus kws tshaj lij kev ncaj ncees Kinger Lau thiab Si Fu hais rau CNBC hauv email.

Pab pawg tau hais ntxiv tias nws "tsis tuaj yeem hu rau lub khw hauv qab" rau qhov Performance index, raws li nws cov qauv kev lag luam, uas tau qhia tias muaj kev hloov pauv loj hauv ob xyoos dhau los.

Cov kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas ntawm Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers tau hais tias, "Lub Kaum Ib Hlis yuav, nyob rau hauv kev pom, raug pom tias yog qhov hloov pauv tseem ceeb rau Suav lag luam," ceeb toom rau Hang Seng Tuam Tshoj Enterprise Performance index thiab cov cuab yeej cuab tam tau txais txiaj ntsig zoo.

"Cov khoom lag luam tau txhawb nqa los ntawm kev txo qis nyiaj txiag thiab cov qauv kev lag luam tawm, thiab cov khoom lag luam thev naus laus zis tau muaj zog ntawm cov nyiaj tau los thiab rov qhib kev cia siab," cov kws tshuaj ntsuam tau hais hauv tsab ntawv tshaj tawm.

Tom qab nws lub Kaum Ib Hlis nce, Hang Seng Performance index hovered nyob ib ncig ntawm 18,600 - ib theem ntawm kev tawm tsam raws li cov neeg saib xyuas kev lag luam.

"Nrog 18,600 qib ntawm kev tawm tsam tau kov yeej rau Hang Seng Index, uas tuaj yeem zoo li tso qhov tseem ceeb ntawm kev puas siab puas ntsws 20,000 qib ntawm kev saib," IG tus kws tshaj lij kev lag luam Yeap Jun Rong tau hais hauv tsab ntawv ceeb toom hnub Thursday.

Nws tau ntxiv cov lus tshaj tawm tshiab los ntawm tsoomfwv Suav, suav nrog cov neeg saib xyuas kev noj qab haus huv txhawb nqa kev txhaj tshuaj tiv thaiv cov neeg laus thiab cov cim dav dav ntawm kev hloov pauv ntawm nws txoj cai xoom-Covid, tau rub lub cheeb tsam cov khoom lag luam.

Nws tau hais tias "Cov xwm txheej tsis ntev los no tau txhawb nqa qhov tsis zoo tshaj plaws rau kev lag luam hauv Suav," nws hais ntxiv tias cov xwm txheej tau ua rau "yuav tsum tau muaj kev thaj yeeb ntau" rau cov peev hauv Suav teb uas txuas ntxiv thawb siab dua ntawm kev rov qhib kev cia siab.

HSI kawg tau poob qis dua 20,000 qib hauv lub Yim Hli, thiab cov kws tshuaj ntsuam xav tias yuav pom kev rov qab los ntxiv hauv kev lag luam kev ncaj ncees ntawm cov cim ntxiv uas lub teb chaws yuav hloov mus deb ntawm xoom-Covid.

Nyob rau yav dhau los daim ntawv qhia, cov kws tshaj lij ntawm Goldman Sachs tau hais tias lawv cia siab tias yuav pom ib qho 20% rally hauv Suav lag luam Tshuag thaum lub teb chaws rov qhib dua.

Cov kws tshaj lij tau hais tias cov khoom lag luam txhua hli tau pom nyob rau lub Kaum Ib Hlis txhawb qhov kev xav ntawd.

"Cov kev tshuaj ntsuam xyuas no taw qhia rau kev cia siab tias kev lag luam tuaj yeem ua rau muaj kev rov qab los rau qee lub sijhawm hauv 2023 tom qab kev ua haujlwm nyuaj heev hauv 2 xyoo dhau los," lawv hais hauv email rau CNBC.

Lawv hais tias, "Kev rov qhib cov khoom siv hluav taws xob tuaj yeem pab txhawb lub voj voog hloov mus rau 'Kev Cia Siab' theem," lawv hais tias, "qhov chaw muaj txiaj ntsig zoo li nthuav dav [lossis] rov qab los txawm tias tseem muaj kev nyuaj rau kev khwv nyiaj txiag."

- CNBC's Evelyn Cheng tau pab txhawb rau zaj dab neeg