Greenspan Gradualism Thov, txaus nrog kev poob siab-Thiab-Awe, kws tshaj lij hais

Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve puas yuav thov tso nws txoj kev siv zog los ua kom lub ntiaj teb nyiam.

Qhov kev lag luam thiab cov tub ua lag luam xav tau yog txoj cai me me tweaks, raws li tsab ntawv ceeb toom tsis ntev los no los ntawm cov qub tub rog Wall Street tus kws tshaj lij Jim Paulsen, tus thawj coj kev nqis peev ntawm Leuthold Group.

"Lub Sijhawm ntawm 'Ho-Hum' txoj cai tau sawv cev rau lub khw muag khoom noj qab haus huv," tsab ntawv ceeb toom hais. "Rau qhov uas cov khoom lag luam ua tau zoo dua, cov txheej txheem kev lag luam tho txawv kuj zoo ib yam rau kev lag luam."

Paulsen pib qhov no los ntawm kev tshuaj xyuas ntawm kaum xyoo ntawm kev ua lag luam thiab cov ntaub ntawv kev xav. Nyob rau lub sijhawm xyoo 1978 txog rau 2022 nws tau saib cov kev xav ntawm tsoomfwv cov cai raws li Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey (MCSS).

Cov kev tshawb fawb pom tias "cov tswv yim kev lag luam tau raug suav tias yog qhov tsis zoo me ntsis ntau dua li tsis tau," tsab ntawv ceeb toom hais. Qhov kev xav ntawm qhov ntsuas ntawm 50 txog 50, thiab qhov nruab nrab nyeem ntawv yog -9.4.

Qhov kev tshawb pom ntawd yuav tsum tsis txhob xav tsis thoob. Tsoomfwv tsis paub tias yog lub hauv paus ntawm kev ua tau zoo lossis kev xaiv nyiaj txiag zoo.

Txawm li cas los xij, nws yog dab tsi los tom ntej uas yog qhov nthuav tiag tiag rau cov tub ua lag luam. Cov khoom lag luam ua tau zoo dua qub thaum cov neeg siv khoom saib cov cai tsis yog phem lossis txaus ntshai. Hloov 'meh' qeb zoo li thov rau Wall Street.

"S&P 500 nyiam qhov chaw qab zib thaum txoj cai tswjfwm kev lag luam tau xav tias yog neeg ntiaj teb," tsab ntawv ceeb toom hais.

Tshwj xeeb, thaum MCSS nyeem ntawv nyob rau hauv lawv qhov nruab nrab quintile, nruab nrab ntawm qhov nruab nrab ntawm qhov rho tawm 5 thiab rho tawm 15 lub khw tau pom muaj kev sib tw loj rau xyoo tom ntej. Cov nyiaj tau los txhua xyoo rau xyoo tom ntej yog 23.1% daim ntawv tshaj tawm hais tias, thiab pom kev lag luam poob qis hauv ib-hauv-plaub lub hlis.

Qhov ntawd yog qhov sib piv nrog lub sijhawm thaum cov kev xav nyeem tau nyob sab nraum nruab nrab quintile. Hauv cov xwm txheej no, S&P 500 pom kev sib piv tsis zoo tau nce nruab nrab 7.1%.

Txog tam sim no xyoo no, lub SPDR S&P 500 pauv nyiaj pauv pauv (SIV
), uas taug qab S&P 500 Performance index yog nqis 17%, raws li Yahoo. Qhov phem dua, qhov kev cia siab rau bonanza rov qab los tsis zoo rau 12 lub hlis tom ntej, raws li MCSS cov ntawv nyeem tsis ntev los no uas zoo sab nraum nruab nrab quintile, ntawm qhov tsis zoo.

Tau kawg qhov ntawd yuav hloov pauv yog tias Biden cov thawj coj tuaj yeem pib ua dab tsi Paulsen dubs 'mundane' txoj cai hloov pauv thiab txav kev xav mus rau hauv 'meh' nruab nrab quintile.

“Cov tub ceev xwm yuav tsum ceeb toom; Tsawg poob siab thiab txaus ntshai thiab ntau dua Greenspan gradualism,'' tsab ntawv ceeb toom hais txog Fed tus thawj coj Alan Greenspan uas tau pab ua kom cov nyiaj txiag qis thiab kev lag luam kuj ruaj khov nyob rau xyoo 1990 thiab mus rau xyoo txhiab tshiab.

Cov ntawv ceeb toom txuas ntxiv:

• "Tsis txhob hnov ​​​​qab cov lus teb ntau dhau & tsis txaus ntseeg, txwv tus naj npawb ntawm Fed pressers & pawg thawj coj kev xam phaj, thiab zam kom tsis txhob muaj kev sib tw ua se thiab siv nyiaj sib ntaus sib tua. Ua kom pom tseeb tsawg dua ntawm kev ua tus kov-feely, pob tshab kev sib txuas lus thiab tsis txhob mloog zoo rau kev siv cov kev ntsuas nrog ho-hum, low-profile, thiab tsis muaj kev cuam tshuam tom qab-the-cenes. "

Los yog muab bluntly, tso tseg tsis pom qhov teeb meem thiab hloov koj txoj haujlwm.