Goldman ceeb toom 'Bear Market tsis dhau'-Ntawm no yog cov kws tshaj lij kwv yees rau cov khoom lag luam xyoo tom ntej

Tojsiab

Raws li cov khoom lag luam tawm tsam ntxiv rau qhov kev sib tw zoo kawg rau xyoo kawg, cov kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas tau ceeb toom rau cov lag luam dais uas tau pib thaum Lub Rau Hli muaj chaw khiav raws li looming cov nyiaj khwv tau los hauv lub quarters tom ntej yuav hem kom nthuav tawm qhov kev puas tsuaj ntawm Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve cov paj laum hikes. xyoo no - teeb tsa kev lag luam rau qhov muaj peev xwm tshiab qis thiab tsawg kawg ib xyoos ntawm qhov tsis muaj txiaj ntsig.

Cov Lus Tseem Ceeb

"Lub lag luam dais tsis dhau," Goldman Sachs tus thawj coj thoob ntiaj teb tus kws tshaj lij kev ncaj ncees Peter Oppenheimer tau hais rau cov neeg siv khoom hauv daim ntawv hnub Monday, ceeb toom tias "txoj kev rov qab los tau zoo" yuav tsis pib kom txog thaum cov paj laum siab kawg, uas Goldman economists tsis xav kom txog rau xyoo tom ntej.

Raws li qhov tshwm sim, Oppenheimer cia siab tias "ntau qhov hloov pauv," nrog S&P 500 tsoo qhov "kawg" qis rau xyoo tom ntej tab sis xaus lub xyoo kwv yees li ntawm 4,000 cov ntsiab lus vim cov khoom lag luam tseem "rhiab heev rau cov ntaub ntawv tshiab uas hloov pauv [tus neeg ua lag luam]

kev nkag siab" txog kev lag luam.

Tus kws tshuaj ntsuam hais tias kev lag luam dais tam sim no tau tsav los ntawm kev lag luam kev lag luam thiab nce cov paj laum, txhais tau tias nws yog ib qho kev poob qis uas muaj keeb kwm nyob nruab nrab 26 lub hlis thiab siv 50 lub hlis kom rov zoo nrog "ntau qhov kev sib tw ntse" nyob rau lub sijhawm no. .

Lwm tus pom zoo: "Qhov no tsis yog qhov pib ntawm lub khw muag nyuj tshiab," Morgan Stanley's Lisa Shalett tau sau rau hnub Monday, hu rau S&P's ze li 10% surge nyob rau lub hlis no "tseem muaj lwm lub lag luam dais" khi rau cov ntaub ntawv nyiaj txiag zoo dua, ua ntej ntxiv : "Peb qhia ceev faj."

Shalett lees paub cov txiaj ntsig zoo uas ua rau muaj kev sib tw - suav nrog kev nce siab kev xav nyob rau theem siab tshaj txij li lub Kaum Ob Hlis thiab kev xaiv tsa nruab nrab ntawm kev ruaj ntseg kev ua lag luam "legislative gridlock." Tab sis nws ceeb toom txog kev txhawj xeeb txog nyiaj txiag yuav hnyav dua rau xyoo tom ntej vim qhov cuam tshuam ntawm kev nce nqi tau pom tseeb.

Qhov "tseem ceeb tshaj plaws" qhov teeb meem ntsib kev lag luam yog "qhov kev cia siab tsis muaj tseeb" rau xyoo tom ntej - txawm tias cov tuam txhab tau pib txij thaum pib txos lawv cov kev kwv yees los suav rau kev lag luam qeeb qeeb - thiab Morgan Stanley cov phiaj xwm kev txiav yuav tsuas yog txuas ntxiv mus, thawb S&P mus rau 3,900 cov ntsiab lus nyob rau xyoo tom ntej, 1% qis dua qib tam sim no ntawm 3,950.

Kev Nkag Siab Hais

"Tsis txhob conflate qhov pib ntawm qhov kawg ntawm lub lag luam dais nrog qhov kawg nws tus kheej," Shalett hais. "Kev nqis peev los ntawm kev saib los ntawm kev lag luam qeeb thiab kev poob qis hauv cov nyiaj tau los yuav ua pov thawj txaus ntshai."

Tus Keeb Kwm Tseem Ceeb

Lub hli tas los cov ntaub ntawv nyiaj txiag, uas qhia cov neeg siv khoom tau nce 7.7% (piv rau 9.1% ncov thaum Lub Rau Hli), yog ib qho kev cog lus rau cov neeg siv khoom raws li Fed cov tub ceev xwm ntsuas thaum twg los tsoo lub nres ntawm lawv cov phiaj xwm nruj nruj, thiab cov khoom lag luam tau nce siab. . Txawm li cas los xij, txawm hais tias qhov kev zam rau ib hlis, ntau tus kws tshawb fawb nyiaj txiag tau ceeb toom tawm tsam qhov kev cia siab dhau los tias kev nce nqi tau txo qis. "Yog tias qhov no suav nrog kev txhim kho, peb tau teeb tsa qhov qis qis," hais tias Bankrate tus kws tshuaj ntsuam nyiaj txiag Greg McBride, ntxiv "kev nthuav dav" ntawm kev nce nqi "tseem muaj teeb meem," tshwj xeeb hauv vaj tse, zaub mov thiab nqi zog. "Lub S&P tau nce 10% los ntawm lub Kaum Hlis qis tab sis tseem nqis ze li ntawm 18% xyoo no.

Dab Tsi Los Saib

Hnub Wednesday, Fed tau teem sijhawm los tshaj tawm cov ntsiab lus ntawm cov neeg ua haujlwm sib tham ntawm lawv lub rooj sib tham txoj cai dhau los lub hlis no. Tus kws tshuaj ntsuam Tom Essaye ntawm Sevens Daim Ntawv Qhia hais tias cov lus sib tham yuav zoo li qhia qhov loj ntawm kev nce qib yuav qeeb rau lub hlis tom ntej, tab sis hais tias qhov kev taug kev me me "tsis yog qhov zoo rau kev lag luam" vim tias cov kws lag luam tau xav tias yuav muaj kev poob qis vim qhov kev siv yav dhau los. taug kev. Hloov chaw, Essaye taw qhia rau Fed cov lus tshaj tawm hauv qab no rau lub Kaum Ob Hlis 14 yog "qhov tseem ceeb tom ntej" kev lag luam catalyst. Goldman kwv yees ib nrab-taw tes nce mus rau lub hlis tom ntej, ua raws li peb lub hlis twg-taw tes mus rau xyoo tom ntej. Lub hlis tom ntej tshaj tawm yuav qhia txog qhov Fed qhov kev kwv yees.

ntxiv nyeem ntawv

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Fed nce cov paj laum Lwm 75 Cov ntsiab lus tseem ceeb-Ntxiv rau kev thawb cov nqi qiv mus rau qib siab tshaj txij li kev lag luam loj (Forbes)