Muab hais tias tsis muaj kev lag luam xav tsis thoob ntxiv, cov khoom lag luam tsis zoo li yuav ntsib kev poob qis thiab S&P 500 tuaj yeem ua haujlwm rov qab mus rau 4,000.
Qhov ntawd yog raws li ib pab neeg ntawm Goldman Sachs tus kws tshaj lij coj los ntawm David Kostin. Pab neeg tau nqa lawv lub hom phiaj peb lub hlis ntawm qhov ntsuas
SPX,
uas tau nce ntau dua 7% txog rau xyoo no, mus rau 4,000 ntawm 3,600. Tab sis Goldman tau tso nws qhov kev kwv yees xyoo kawg ntawm 4,000, kwv yees li ntawm ib nrab ntawm ib Phab ntsa Street kwv yees lub hom phiaj ntawm 3,400 txog 4,500.
Piav txog qhov kev cia siab nyob ze rau hauv daim ntawv rau cov neeg siv khoom lig rau hnub Friday, Kostin, tus thawj coj ntawm US tus tswv cuab kev ncaj ncees ntawm Goldman Sachs
GS,
tau hais tias cov ntaub ntawv tseem ceeb hauv Teb Chaws Asmeskas cov ntaub ntawv macro tau dhau los ua qhov "tsis txaus ntseeg" lub caij qhia plaub lub hlis twg. Qee tus yuav hais tias Asmeskas cov ntaub ntawv muaj zog me ntsis tom qab hnub Friday daim ntawv tshaj tawm txog kev ua haujlwm tau pom tias muaj kev loj hlob ntawm kev ua haujlwm ntau dua li ib nrab lab, muaj zog dua li qhov xav tau, uas hnyav rau US cov khoom lag luam. rov rau hnub Monday, nrog S&P 500 hovering ntawm 4,101.
Ntxiv rau cov duab zoo hauv Teb Chaws Asmeskas kev lag luam yog Tuam Tshoj txoj kev rov qhib dua ua ntej thiab txo qis kev pheej hmoo ntawm kev lag luam Europe poob qis, pab pawg tau hais tias, ceeb toom tias qhov chaw tseem ceeb ntawm lub tuam txhab txhais tau tias kev lag luam tuaj yeem cuam tshuam ib ntus lawv lub txhab nyiaj 4,000 lub hom phiaj.
Tab sis cov kws tshaj lij tau kos ib txoj kab hauv qab qhov kev zoo siab, sau tseg tias vim tias kev lag luam muag muag tau raug nqi rau hauv Teb Chaws Asmeskas cov khoom lag luam, lawv lub hom phiaj xyoo kawg yog nyob qhov twg rau tam sim no. Lawv tau sau tseg tias qhov ua tau zoo ntawm cyclicals piv rau kev tiv thaiv implies US kev loj hlob ntawm kev lag luam tiag tiag ntawm 2% tawm tsam Goldman tus kheej hauv qab-kev kwv yees ntawm 1% tag nrho cov khoom lag luam hauv xyoo 2023, thiab ISM Manufacturing Performance index ntawm ib ncig 55 piv rau 47 kev nyeem tsis ntev los no.
Lub tsev txhab nyiaj muaj cov nyiaj khwv tau los hauv ib qho kev kwv yees ntawm 0% rau 2023 thiab 5% rau 2024, piv rau cov kev pom zoo ntawm 1% thiab 12%, feem. Cov kws tshaj lij tau hais tias qhov kev cia siab ntawm cov kws tshuaj ntsuam, nqis 10% txij li thaum kawg ntawm Lub Rau Hli 2023, yog ob npaug ntawm keeb kwm kev hloov kho tsis zoo.
Kev ntsuas tseem tau nthuav dav thiab yuav raug txwv los ntawm qhov tshwm sim ntawm cov paj laum, Kostin thiab pab pawg tau hais. "Lub S&P 500 pauv ntawm 18.4 [lub sij hawm] cov nyiaj tau los tom ntej, thiab ntawm qhov ntau dua 'zoo' ntau yog tias ib tus account rau qhov tseeb tias cov tub ua lag luam feem ntau xav tias yuav tau txais txiaj ntsig zoo hauv qab cov kws tshuaj ntsuam kwv yees," lawv hais.
Kostin thiab pab pawg tau hais tias cov peev txheej tuaj yeem zom cov nqi nce ntxiv yog tias qhov kev hloov pauv no tau tsav los ntawm kev txhim kho kev cia siab. Tab sis lawv tsis pom muaj txiaj ntsig ntau ntxiv raws li Cov Nyiaj Txiag Nyiaj Txiag tau nce ntxiv - lawv pom 10-xyoo nominal yields
TUBMUSD 10Y,
nce zuj zus mus rau 4.2%.
Muab hais tias lawv tus kheej lub hauv paus rooj plaub rau S&P 500 twb tau txwv upside, kev lag luam poob qis tuaj yeem ua rau "kev poob qis" rau cov khoom lag luam, lawv ceeb toom. Lawv hais tias qhov Performance index tuaj yeem poob 25% los ntawm qib tam sim no, tsaws ntawm thaj tsam 3,150 nyob rau hauv qhov xwm txheej zoo li no, uas tau tsav los ntawm kev poob nyiaj kwv yees thiab tus nqi-nyiaj tau ntau poob mus rau 14 zaug los ntawm 18 tam sim no.
Lwm qhov kev pheej hmoo yog tias kev nce nyiaj nce ntxiv qeeb tab sis ua tsis tau raws li Fed lub hom phiaj, uas tuaj yeem ua rau muaj kev cuam tshuam nyiaj txiag nruj dua thiab cov paj laum ntau dua. Thaum kawg, lawv ceeb toom cov tub ua lag luam tias kev sib cav sib ceg ntawm Asmeskas cov nuj nqis qab nthab, uas tuaj yeem tuaj tom qab xyoo no, muaj peev xwm ua rau cov khoom lag luam puas tsuaj zoo li nws tau ua hauv 2011, thaum lub lag luam poob 17%.
Lub Xeev Union: 5 qhov teeb meem tseem ceeb rau Biden thaum nws hais nws cov lus
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/goldman-sachs-ups-its-near-term-sp-500-target-due-to-brighter-economic-picture-but-that-could-knock- 25-off-stocks-strategists-say-11675700633?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo