Kub tau nqis 15% los ntawm nws cov ntaub ntawv siab tab sis ntawm no yog vim li cas nws tseem yuav yog qhov tseem ceeb rau ntau hom ntaub ntawv

Txawm hais tias tus nqi kub tau hloov pauv, thiab tau poob qis los ntawm lawv qhov siab tshaj xyoo no, "ntau tus neeg ua lag luam xav tsis thoob thaum paub tias kub tau ua tus txheeb ze nyob rau xyoo 2022," hais tias Steven Schoenfeld, CEO ntawm qhov chaw muab khoom lag luam MarketVector. Cov nqi kub tau nqis 3.8% xyoo no thaum Lub Yim Hli 24, tab sis S&P 500 Performance index
SPX,
-3.37%
tau poob ntau dua 13%.

Kub yav tom ntej pom lawv daim ntawv cog lus tshaj plaws
GC00,
+ 0.06%
nyob ntawm $2,069.40 ib ooj on Aug 6, 2020, qhov siab tshaj ntawm cov ntaub ntawv. Lawv poob rau kev lag luam qis dua $ 2,000 cim tsis tu ncua kom txog thaum Lub Peb Hlis Ntuj xyoo no, thaum lawv tshaj tawm qee qhov kev sib haum xeeb saum qib ntawd. Lub Yim Hli 24, tus nqi
GCZ22,
+ 0.06%
sawv ntawm $1,761.50.

Cov nqi kub pom ob qhov "muaj zog nce ntxiv," nyob rau lub caij ntuj sov 2020 thiab lwm qhov thaum lub caij ntuj no 2022 - sib xws nrog Russia qhov kev cuam tshuam ntawm Ukraine, hais tias Schoenfeld. Nws tau sau tseg tias "Kub tau hloov kho tam sim ntawd," nws sau tseg tias qhov kev thim rov qab mus rau qhov nce tsis tu ncua ntawm cov paj laum thiab "lub suab hais lus" ntawm Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve cov cai tswj hwm nyiaj txiag, uas kuj tau muaj zog hauv US duas.

Cov txiaj, raws li ntsuas los ntawm ICE US duas index
DXY,
+ 0.34%,
tau nce siab tshaj 13% xyoo no. Nws tau kov ntau tshaj 20-xyoo kaw siab thaum Lub Yim Hli 22.

Qhov tshwj xeeb lub zog nyob rau hauv cov nyiaj duas las tawm tsam lwm cov txiaj ntsig tau tsa cov tub ua lag luam kev ntseeg siab hauv lub luag haujlwm ntawm cov txiaj ntsig "ntawm kev siv nyiaj kub," hais tias George Milling-Stanley, tus kws tshaj lij kub ntawm State Street Global Advisors.

Txawm li cas los xij, nws xav tias cov tub ua lag luam tau "ua rau muaj kev cuam tshuam tsis zoo ntawm cov paj laum ntau dua" ntawm tus nqi kub. Nws taw qhia tias nyob rau ob lub sijhawm dhau los ntawm kev txhawb nqa Fed nruj, cov nqi kub tau nce siab, "tso tawm cov kev txawj ntse uas tus nqi siab dua ua rau cov peev nyiaj kub vim tias lawv nce nqi ntawm kev nqis peev" hauv nws. Piv txwv li, nyob rau hauv ob xyoos txij thaum Lub Rau Hli 2004 txog Lub Xya Hli 2006, thaum Fed nce nqi 17 zaug, kub tau nce 42%, hais tias Milling-Stanley.

Thaum nws yuav tsis txiav txim qhov kev sim ntxiv ntawm kev txhawb nqa kub nyob ib puag ncig $ 1,700, nws taw qhia tias State Street qhov xwm txheej tseem ceeb hu rau cov nqi xyoo no los ntawm $ 1,800 txog $ 2,000. Milling-Stanley hais tias "Kev tsis paub tseeb tam sim no ntawm kev lag luam macroeconomic thiab geopolitical fronts tuaj yeem ua rau tus nqi rov qab mus rau qhov kev lag luam ua ntej xyoo kawg," Milling-Stanley hais.

Central banks, lub sijhawm no, tau txuas ntxiv lawv cov kev yuav khoom kub. Qhov ntawd zoo ib yam nrog cov qauv tom qab xyoo 2008-09 nyiaj txiag teebmeem, hais tias Steve Land, tus thawj coj ntawm Franklin Gold thiab Precious Metals Fund.
FKRCX,
-4.05%.

Cov tuam txhab nyiaj hauv ntiaj teb tau ntxiv 180 metric tons rau official kub reserves nyob rau hauv lub quarter thib ob los ntawm thawj lub quarter, raws li World Gold Council.

"Kev loj hlob ntawm geopolitical tsis paub tseeb tau ua rau cov tuam txhab nyiaj hauv nruab nrab tuav nyiaj ntau dua thiab tsawg dua ntawm lwm lub teb chaws cov txiaj ntsig lossis nuj nqis," hais tias Land.

Txawm li cas los xij, kev lag luam kub yog "nyuaj rau kwv yees," nws hais ntxiv. Kub yog ib qho cuab yeej siv nyiaj txiag uas nyiam kom tau txais txiaj ntsig los ntawm lub sijhawm tsis paub txog kev lag luam lossis kev ntshai ntawm kev nce nqi, thiab nws yog "khoom kim heev," nrog rau feem ntau ntawm lub ntiaj teb txhua xyoo tsim kub muag raws li cov hniav nyiaj hniav kub, "uas tuaj yeem hnov ​​​​lub siab thaum kev lag luam poob qis."

"Nws feem ntau muaj ntau qhov kev tawm tsam hauv kev lag luam kub, muab nws tus nqi sib txawv ntawm lwm yam khoom muaj nqis," nws hais. Qhov ntawd pab ua kom nws yog "qhov tseem ceeb ntxiv rau cov ntaub ntawv sib txawv."