(Bloomberg) - Daim ntawv ceeb toom tshiab kawg rau Asmeskas cov khoom lag luam tau tshwm sim los ntawm kaum ntawm kev lag luam uas cov tub ua lag luam tau saib xyuas kom tau txais kev nyeem txog lub xeev kev lag luam thiab kev noj qab haus huv ntawm Asmeskas cov neeg siv khoom.
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Kev thauj mus los, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog cov tsheb thauj khoom thiab kev tsheb ciav hlau, ua rau cov pab pawg ua haujlwm phem tshaj plaws hauv Asmeskas lub lim tiam dhau los vim muaj kev txhawj xeeb ntau ntxiv tias kev nce nqi paj laum los ntawm Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve thiab kev nce nyiaj nce ntxiv yuav txwv cov neeg siv khoom siv. Yog li ntawd, cov tuam txhab ua lub luag haujlwm rau kev txav thiab xa cov khoom tuaj yeem pom qhov kev thov poob ntawm lub sijhawm thaum nce nqi roj nyem cov npoo.
Dow Jones Kev Thauj Mus Los Nruab Nrab, uas nws cov txiaj ntsig tau los ntawm qhov tob ntawm kev sib kis tau zoo dua cov kev lag luam dav dav, tau poob 7.3% txij li lub Peb Hlis 29 piv nrog 1.1% poob ntawm S&P 500 Index. Qhov ntsuas kev thauj mus los tau tshaj tawm nws qhov kev poob qis tshaj plaws plaub hnub txij li lub Kaum Ob Hlis 1.
Sam Stovall, tus kws tshaj lij kev nqis peev ntawm CFRA tau hais tias "Nws yog lwm tus ntsia hlau hauv kev ua lag luam lub hleb," hais tias. "Yog tias kev thauj mus los tsis zoo, cov tub ua lag luam tau txiav txim siab tias cov neeg siv khoom xaj yuav yuav qeeb ib yam nkaus, vim muaj kev cuam tshuam tsis tu ncua, kev nce nyiaj nce ntxiv, thiab cov txiaj ntsig rov qab."
Hnub Friday, Stephens tus kws tshuaj ntsuam Jack Atkins tau hais tias nws pom muaj kev pheej hmoo rau kev xa khoom xa tuaj tom qab xyoo no thiab rau xyoo 2023, vim tias Fed tus nqi nce siab tshem tawm cov dej hauv kev lag luam thiab kev siv cov khoom yuav rov qab mus rau qib keeb kwm nrog Covid cov kev txwv yooj yim.
Qhov tsis muaj zog hauv kev thauj mus los haum rau qhov kev xav dav dav hauv cov khoom lag luam cyclical tsis ntev los no, nrog cov pab pawg xws li tsev txhab nyiaj, tsev tsim khoom, tsheb ua si, thiab semiconductors nyob rau hauv, los yog hem cov txheeb ze downtrends.
"Qhov no tsis yog ib qho kev pheej hmoo tshwj xeeb tshaj plaws, thiab peb tuav ceev faj saib dav," BTIG tus kws tshaj lij kev lag luam Jonathan Krinsky tau sau rau hauv ib daim ntawv.
Kev muag khoom tsis ntev los no hauv kev thauj mus los tau raug coj los ntawm cov tsheb thauj khoom, cov tuam txhab xa khoom thiab cov neeg ua haujlwm kev tsheb ciav hlau, nrog rau cov dav hlau tseem tshuav tsis muaj kev puas tsuaj. JB Hunt Transport Services Inc., Matson Inc., Old Dominion Freight Line Inc., Ryder System Inc. thiab Landstar System Inc. tau poob qis tshaj plaws. Hauv Tebchaws Europe, kev xa khoom loj heev Maersk tau poob rau hnub Monday thaum muaj kev txhawj xeeb tias qhov kev hloov pauv tshiab ntawm Lavxias kev rau txim rau kev lag luam, nrog rau kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb tsis muaj zog, tuaj yeem ua rau poob rau kev thov rau cov khoom thoob ntiaj teb. Kev sib koom ntawm cov phooj ywg DSV, Kuehne + Nagel thiab Hapag Lloyd kuj tau ntaus.
'Risks Rising'
Thiab txawm hais tias cov tub ua lag luam tseem tsis tau txiav txim siab seb qhov no qhia txog kev lag luam poob qis lossis kev lag luam poob qis, qhov tsis muaj zog yog ntxiv rau kev loj hlob cacophony ntawm ominous signals, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog los ntawm kev lag luam daim ntawv cog lus thiab geopolitical voj voog.
"Qhov tsis muaj zog hauv kev thauj mus los, nrog rau kev cuam tshuam tus nqi sib txawv ntawm lwm qhov chaw tseem ceeb ntawm kev lag luam-xws li nyiaj txiag, tsev tsim khoom, thiab cov khoom siv hluav taws xob nrog rau cov txiaj ntsig nkhaus inversion - qhia tias muaj kev pheej hmoo nce ntxiv," Keith Lerner, tus thawj coj lag luam tawm tswv yim rau Truist Advisory. Kev pabcuam.
Txawm li cas los xij, qee qhov pom tau tias qhov kev sib tw hauv kev thauj khoom thauj khoom yuav raug txwv rau hauv kev lag luam thiab tsuas yog qhia txog kev hloov pauv ntawm kev siv khoom mus rau kev mus ncig, kev paub dhau los thiab kev pabcuam, vim tias qhov rov qhib kev lag luam yog thaum kawg sib sau ua ke.
Arthur Hogan hais tias "Kuv tsis ntseeg tias kev thauj mus los qhia peb tias peb tab tom dhau los ntawm kev lag luam poob qis tab sis qhov kev siv cov qauv hloov pauv mus rau qhov kuv tau ua cov qauv keeb kwm ntawm peb lub hlis twg ntawm ib puas xyoo," said Arthur Hogan, tus thawj coj ua lag luam tawm tswv yim ntawm National Securities.
(Ntxiv cov ntsiab lus dav ntawm kev lag luam hauv kab lus thib rau, ntxiv cov lej kaw thoob plaws)
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