Tesla CEO Elon Musk piav tes piav taw thaum lub sijhawm Tesla Tuam Tshoj tsim qauv 3 Kev xa khoom hauv xyoo 2020, … [+]
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Tuam Tshoj lub lim tiam no tau tshaj tawm txog 47% poob rau hauv kev muag khoom hauv lub Plaub Hlis los ntawm ib xyoo dhau los raws li Covid-19 kev kaw haujlwm ua rau muaj kev puas tsuaj hauv lub ntiaj teb kev lag luam tsheb loj tshaj plaws thiab lub ntiaj teb loj tshaj plaws kev tsim khoom lag luam rau tsheb qhov chaw thiab hluav taws xob tsheb. Amid kev lag luam tsis paub tseeb tom qab lub teb chaws Covid txoj cai, "ib yam tseem ceeb," Tuam Tshoj lub xeev-khiav xov xwm Xinhua tau hais nag hmo. "Tuam Tshoj yuav ua raws li nws txoj cai xoom-COVID dynamic."
Yog li dab tsi ua ntej rau kev lag luam tsheb thoob ntiaj teb?
Kuv tau hais rau hnub Tuesday nrog Bill Russo, tus tsim thiab CEO ntawm Automobility, Shanghai-hauv paus lub hauv paus tswv yim thiab peev pab tswv yim tuam txhab. 18-xyoo Tuam Tshoj tus qub tub rog ua lag luam thiab yav dhau los tus thawj coj ntawm North East Asia ntawm Chrysler tau nyob hauv av hauv Shanghai dhau los ntawm kev kaw lub xyoo no mus txog rau lub lim tiam dhau los, thaum nws rov qab los tsev rau Tebchaws Meskas.
Kev lag luam cov saw hlau yuav nyob twj ywm rau lub neej yav tom ntej, ua rau muaj kev cuam tshuam nyiaj txiag, Russo tau hais hauv kev xam phaj Zoom. Cov hom lag luam yeej yuav xav tau kev sib koom ua ke ntawm lawv cov lag luam mus rau hauv semiconductors thiab EV roj teeb, thaum Tesla yuav muaj peev xwm kov yeej kev txom nyem tam sim no hauv Suav lag luam vim nws cov Apple zoo li hauv qab no, nws tau kwv yees. Cov ntsiab lus ua raws.
Flannery: Tus kab mob kis tau zoo li cas rau kev lag luam thiab kev lag luam tsheb?
Russo: Nws hnyav heev - phem heev. Tsis yog Shanghai xwb. Koj tau txais txoj kev hauv Shanghai - Yangtze River delta thiab lub ntiaj teb qhov chaw nres nkoj loj tshaj plaws nyob ntawd. Nws yog lub hauv paus khoom siv rau cov tsheb ua thoob plaws hauv Suav teb thiab thoob ntiaj teb. Muaj kev cuam tshuam los ntawm kev cuam tshuam los ntawm kev cuam tshuam uas twb muaj ua ntej kev kaw tseg - cov teeb meem kev lag luam, tom qab ntawd cov teeb meem ntawm cov khoom siv chip, tom qab ntawd kev tsov rog Ukraine - uas tam sim no sib xyaw teeb meem thiab xa cov kev poob siab los ntawm cov khoom siv. Txawm hais tias qhov kev kaw cia ua rau muaj kev nyuaj siab rau qhov kev thov, qhov cuam tshuam loj tshaj plaws yog nyob rau ntawm cov khoom siv, uas suav nrog kev muaj peev xwm txav mus los, tau txais cov neeg hauv cov chaw tsim khoom, tsim cov khoom thiab sib sau ua ke tsheb. Tam sim no muaj kev txwv loj heev. Ntxiv rau tag nrho cov teeb meem logistical tshiab nyob rau sab saum toj ntawm qhov ntawd, koj tau txais cua daj cua dub zoo kawg nkaus ntawm emanating nthwv dej ntawm kev cuam tshuam.
Flannery: Tuam Tshoj lub Plaub Hlis tus lej muag khoom nyob rau lub lim tiam no txuas ntxiv nthuav qhia xyoo-rau-xyoo EV kev muag khoom loj hlob.
Russo: Kev thov tsis yog qhov teeb meem tseem ceeb. Tab sis cia peb qhov tseem ceeb hauv lub Peb Hlis EV muag tau 465,000 thiab lub Plaub Hlis yog nyob ib ncig ntawm 299,000, yog li kev lag luam tau poob qis ntawm 36%. Piv txwv li, kev muag khoom ntawm lub tshuab hluav taws xob sab hauv hluav taws xob tau qis dua 50%. Yog li tag nrho, kev lag luam tau txais kev cuam tshuam loj heev. Txoj kev hloov pauv mus rau hluav taws xob tseem nyob ntawd, tab sis tam sim no cuam tshuam los ntawm qhov tsis muaj peev xwm tau txais cov khoom. Thiab nyob rau sab saum toj ntawm qhov ntawd, koj tau txais tag nrho cov peev nyiaj txiag uas tau tsav cov nqi, uas yuav muaj kev cuam tshuam, tsis zoo rau kev thov raws li cov nqi nce.
Flannery: Puas yog qhov cuam tshuam txawv ntawm kev lag luam tshiab thiab cov neeg tsim khoom qub?
Russo: NIO kaw ntxov thiab lawv tsis nyob hauv Shanghai - lawv nyob hauv Hefei tab sis lawv R & D thiab ntau ntawm lawv cov saw hlau yog thaj tsam Yangtze Delta. Tesla rau lub lis piam ua tsis tau dab tsi. Tam sim no (Tesla) muaj "kaw voj" system, tab sis qhov teeb meem tau txais cov khoom. Koj tuaj yeem qhib lub Hoobkas thiab tsim cov khoom koj muaj nyob rau hauv kev thauj mus los lossis hauv lub Hoobkas, tab sis, yog tias koj tsis tuaj yeem tau txais cov khoom tseem ceeb tsim thiab xa tawm, ces koj yuav tsis tuaj yeem ua qhov ntawd mus ntev heev. ntev. Koj tuaj yeem muag los ntawm cov khoom lag luam tsim, tab sis peb nyob rau qhov kawg ntawm qhov tam sim no nyob rau nruab nrab Lub Tsib Hlis. Ntxiv lwm qhov kev hloov pauv ntawm cov neeg ua haujlwm yuav tsis pab ua kom poob ntau lawm, txawm tias koj muaj cov neeg siv khoom ntawm lub qhov rooj. Cov hom xws li Tesla thiab EV hom tau cuam tshuam nrog cov khoom siv luv luv, tsis xav tau luv. Koj tuaj yeem tsim nws, yog tias koj tau txais kev tswj hwm tsis pub dhau rau lub lis piam. Qhov ntawd yuav tsis tshwm sim.
Yog li kev lag luam tau txais kev cuam tshuam loj. Nws tsis yog yuav hnov hauv Suav teb - nws yuav hnov zoo thoob ntiaj teb. Tesla tau tsim 51% ntawm nws cov muag khoom xyoo tas los hauv Suav teb. Lawv tsis ntev los no tau qhib lub Hoobkas giga hauv Berlin tam sim no, tab sis lawv yuav luv luv qee cov khoom muag rov qab mus rau Tebchaws Europe ntawm qee lub npe xws li Model 3 uas tau muaj keeb kwm los ntawm Tuam Tshoj.
Flannery: Koj puas xav tias kev cuam tshuam ntawm cov khoom siv yuav kav ntev npaum li cas?
Russo: Koj tuaj yeem hloov cov saw hlau, tab sis qhov ntawd yuav siv sijhawm. Koj yuav tsum tsim kom muaj peev xwm tshiab nyob rau lwm qhov, lossis lub peev xwm flex uas yuav muaj nyob rau lwm qhov. Yog tias nws yog cov khoom siv tsis txaus lossis tus nqi nce vim qhov tsis txaus ntawm cov npib tsib xee lossis manganese lossis lithium - uas yog cov teeb meem tiag tiag tam sim no, tom qab ntawd koj yuav tsum qhib lub peev xwm tshiab mining. Qhov ntawd yuav siv xyoo. Yog li cov teeb meem kev lag luam-sab nyiaj txiag thiab cov teeb meem muaj peev xwm yuav siv sij hawm ntau xyoo kom tsis txhob mob thiab kho.
"Qhov teeb meem ntawm kev lag luam nyiaj txiag thiab cov teeb meem muaj peev xwm yuav siv sij hawm ntau xyoo kom tsis txhob mob thiab … [+]
Automobility
Flannery: Leej twg tau txais txiaj ntsig los ntawm kev hloov pauv khoom?
Russo: Southeast Asia - Nyab Laj tshwj xeeb; qee qhov yuav sib cav lwm lub lag luam tawm tshiab uas nyob ze rau Europe, ib yam nkaus. Muaj Mexico ua tus xa khoom rau North America thiab tseem muaj kev rov qab mus rau Asmeskas lossis Canada. Nws yog txhua yam ua tau kom paub tseeb tias koj muaj kev tswj hwm, txhim khu kev qha ntawm cov khoom, tshwj xeeb nrog EV roj teeb vim tias EV thov tau tawm. Kev lag luam tsheb tam sim no yog tag nrho ntawm kev siv hluav taws xob. Hauv kev lag luam no, koj tsis tuaj yeem them taus bet rau ob tus nqi kim, ntau txhiab daus las nees. Yog tias koj mus rau hauv EV, koj yuav tsum mus tag nrho.
Qhov ntawd txhais tau tias koj yuav tsum tswj cov saw hlau hauv txoj hauv kev uas koj tsis tau nyob hauv lub tshuab hluav taws xob sab hauv. Cov neeg muag khoom tau zoo nkauj heev khi rau cov neeg tsim tsheb thaum ntawd. Hauv lub sijhawm roj teeb EV, koj tsis muaj hom kev sib raug zoo hauv tsev neeg tam sim no - koj sib tw nrog cov tuam txhab hluav taws xob siv hluav taws xob rau cov khoom siv roj teeb. Peb pom zoo ib yam yog muaj tseeb rau chips. Kev lag luam pib pom tias thaum nws los txog rau cov khoom siv chip. Lawv tsis yog tus dev loj hauv cov khoom noj. Lub ntsiab lus tseem ceeb ntawm kev sib txawv ntawm lub tsheb niaj hnub no yog cov khoom siv hluav taws xob zoo nkauj ntawm lub tsheb. Yog tias koj yog lub tuam txhab nti zoo li Nvidia, Intel lossis TSMC, koj tau txais ntau qhov ntsug uas koj tuaj yeem muag koj cov khoom thiab kev lag luam tsheb me me thaum piv nrog lwm cov khoom lag luam uas xav tau lawv cov khoom.
Lub lag luam roj teeb yuav rov ua dua ntawm qhov no, tsuas yog ntawm qhov loj dua, vim tias koj yuav tsum muaj kev ruaj ntseg ntawm cov khoom xyaw tseem ceeb uas niaj hnub no tsis yog keeb kwm ntawm kev lag luam tsheb daim nqi ntawm cov ntaub ntawv. Carmakers feem ntau nyob deb ntawm cov tuam txhab mining. Lawv tsis muaj keeb kwm ntev ntawm kev cuam tshuam nrog cov hom ntawm cov neeg muag khoom uas feem ntau nyob rau hauv lub roj teeb-pob khoom sib dhos cov saw hlau.
Flannery: Ces automakers yuav vertically integrate? Tesla tau hais tias tsis ntev los no.
Russo: Tsis muaj kev xaiv. Tsis tas li ntawd, koj yuav nyob twj ywm tag nrho ntawm cov tuam txhab roj teeb xws li CATL, Panasonic lossis BYD ua koj tus neeg xa khoom thib ib, thiab lawv yuav muag lawv lub peev xwm mus rau cov neeg sib tw siab tshaj plaws. Thiab qhov ntawd yog qhov tshwm sim tam sim no.
Flannery: Yuav ua li cas mus nrog semiconductors nyob rau hauv xyoo tas los los yog li ntawd? Qhov no tau tham txog ib pliag.
Russo: Ntau ntsug kev koom ua ke. Ua si los ntawm Apple playbook nrog Apple Silicon chips. Qhov ntawd yog ib qho kev txav mus rau vertically integrate thiab tswj ntau qhov sophistication thiab sib txawv ntawm cov neeg siv kev paub. Kev lag luam tsheb yuav tsum ua qee yam zoo sib xws. Txawm li cas los xij, cov neeg tsim tsheb ib txwm muaj keeb kwm los ntawm cov khoom siv los tsav tus nqi. Ntau qhov laj thawj vim li cas lawv tau nkag mus rau qhov teeb meem uas lawv muaj niaj hnub no yog lawv tau tso siab rau cov khoom lag luam-chip cov neeg muag khoom. Ntau cov chips tau tsim tawm nrog cov cuab yeej paub tab - plaub- lossis tsib-nti wafer thev naus laus zis. Lawv tsis txawm ua cov khoom siv (chip-making) rau tam sim no. Yog tias koj xav ntsuas qhov ntsuas thiab qhov khoom ntawd tau txais los ntawm cov neeg siv khoom siv hluav taws xob - uas yog qhov tshwm sim thaum Covid, lawv tsis tuaj yeem nce. Qhov kev daws teeb meem thaum kawg yuav yog los ntawm cov khoom siv sib xyaw ua ke uas koj muaj peev xwm tswj tau qhov yuav thiab muag cov khoom no. Cov roj teeb thiab cov khoom siv chips yog qhov tseem ceeb sib ntaus sib tua rau kev ruaj ntseg koj txoj haujlwm yav tom ntej ntawm kev lag luam no.
Flannery: Dab tsi ua ntej rau Tesla? Lawv puas yuav muaj cov qauv tshiab xyoo no rau Tuam Tshoj?
Russo: Nws zoo li Apple. Tesla muaj lub halo ntawm kev ua lub tuam txhab pioneering hauv lawv cov khoom lag luam. Lawv yog Apple ntawm EV kev lag luam. Tus neeg yuav khoom EV yog rabidly loyal rau Elon Musk kev ntseeg. Lawv sau cov lej txhua lub hlis thaum lawv cov chaw tsim khoom ua haujlwm uas tsis txaus ntseeg. Peb ib txwm tham txog upstart Suav EV hom, tab sis Tesla outsells tag nrho ntawm lawv tag nrho ua ke tsuas yog rau BYD. Ntawd yog, thaum lawv cov nroj tsuag khiav.
Saib lwm cov posts:
Tuam Tshoj Lands Cov Ntaub Ntawv Cov Tswv Cuab Ntawm 2022 Forbes Ntiaj Teb 2000 Sau
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Tau qhov twg los: https://www.forbes.com/sites/russellflannery/2022/05/12/gigantic-impact-from-china-lockdowns-to-hit-auto-industry-globally-automobilitys-bill-russo/