Npaj rau qee cov keeb kwm bullish rov qab nrog cov khoom lag luam no, hais tias BofA cov kws tshuaj ntsuam

"Inflation thiab stagnation yog 'tsis tau xav txog hauv 2022...li no $35 trillion poob rau hauv cov khoom vaj khoom tsev nqi; Tab sis cov txheeb ze rov qab los rau xyoo 2022 muaj ntau yam khoom muaj nqis rov qab los hauv 1973/74, thiab 70s tseem yog peb cov khoom vaj khoom tsev faib rau xyoo 2020, "said ib pab neeg coj los ntawm Michael Hartnett hauv txhab nyiaj Flow Show ceeb toom rau hnub Friday.

Cov khoom muaj nqis uas nyiam muaj xws li cov haujlwm ntev ntawm cov khoom muag, kev hloov pauv, tus nqi, cov peev txheej, kev lag luam tawm tshiab, thiab cov kaus mom me me, nrog cov haujlwm luv luv hauv cov khoom lag luam, cov ntawv cog lus, kev loj hlob thiab thev naus laus zis.

Zeroing nyob rau hauv cov tuam txhab me me, Hartnett thiab pab neeg tau hais tias stagflation txuas ntxiv mus txog thaum xyoo 1970s, tab sis qhov kev poob siab nyiaj txiag tau xaus rau xyoo 1973/74, thaum cov khoom vaj khoom tsev "nkag mus rau ib qho kev lag luam loj loj ntawm txhua lub sijhawm." Thiab lawv pom cov kaus mom me me kom ua tau zoo nyob rau hauv "xyoo tom ntej ntawm stagflation."

Russell 2000 me-cap Tshuag lag luam Performance index
ROV,
+ 1.13%
yog poob 20% txog rau tam sim no xyoo no, piv rau 11% poob rau Dow industrials
DJIA,
+ 1.26%
thiab 21% thiab 33% poob, feem, rau S&P 500
SPX,
+ 1.36%
thiab Nasdaq Composite indexes
COMP,
+ 1.28%.

BofA rattled tawm ntau lub laj thawj vim li cas cov tub ua lag luam yuav tsum cia siab tias cov kaus mom me me kom ua tau zoo dua:

• Cov kaus mom me me raug kev txom nyem tsawg dua los ntawm kev nce nqi vim lawv yog "tus nqi-tus nqi, tsis yog tus tsim nqi"

• Localization thiab nyiaj txiag stimulus feem ntau nyiam cov tuam txhab me

• Cov nyiaj tau los ntawm cov tuam txhab me me tsis tshua muaj peev xwm los ua cov peev nyiaj rau tsoomfwv

• Outperformance ntawm me me-caps feem ntau pib nyob rau hauv ib tug recession

• Teb Chaws Asmeskas cov kaus mom me me feem ntau muaj feem cuam tshuam nrog kev coj noj coj ua hauv khw muag nyuj tom ntej

Thiab thaum Fed poob siab rau kev lag luam lub lim tiam no, raws li Thawj Tswj Hwm Jerome Powell tau qhia meej meej tias lub tuam txhab nyiaj hauv tuam txhab tsis tau npaj ua kom nws txoj kev xav ntawm cov paj laum ntau dua, BofA hais tias tsis txhob tso tseg qhov piv txwv ntawd.

Tom qab nruj cov paj laum los ntawm 1973/74 thaum muaj kev nce nqi thiab cov roj poob siab, lub tuam txhab nyiaj hauv nruab nrab tau txiav thaum Lub Xya Hli 1975 raws li kev loj hlob tsis zoo, sau ntawv Hartnett. Ib qho pivot txuas ntxiv tau pib thaum Lub Kaum Ob Hlis ntawm xyoo ntawd, thiab qhov tseem ceeb, tus nqi poob haujlwm tau nce los ntawm 5.6% thiab 6.6% tib lub hlis.

Qhov "tom qab 12 lub hlis, S&P 500 tau nce 31%; zaj lus qhia yog kev poob hauj lwm catalyst rau 2023 pivot, "hais tias Hartnett thiab pab neeg.

Hnub Friday cov ntaub ntawv qhia tias Asmeskas tau ntxiv qhov muaj zog tshaj li qhov xav tau 261,000 txoj haujlwm nyob rau lub Kaum Hli, tab sis qeeb los ntawm lub hli dhau los 315,000 txoj haujlwm tau txais. Tus nqi poob haujlwm tau nce mus txog 3.7%.

Nyeem: Kev ua lag luam Asmeskas kev lag luam yog 'muaj zog heev,' Fed hais. Yog li cia siab tias yuav nce nyiaj poob haujlwm