(Bloomberg) - Qee qhov tseem ceeb ntawm Wall Street cov nuj nqis tau ceeb toom tsis ntev los no tias Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve tus nqi nce siab tuaj yeem ua rau Asmeskas kev lag luam poob qis.
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Tab sis qhov ntawd tsis yog dab tsi cov tub lag luam hauv khw muag khoom tau nqi tam sim no, raws li cov kws tshuaj ntsuam los ntawm Deutsche Bank AG.
Cov kws tshaj lij Parag Thatte thiab Binky Chadha tau saib ntau qhov ntsuas suav nrog luv luv paj, hu rau ntim, kev xav thiab cov peev nyiaj ntws, thiab pom tias ntau tus neeg ua lag luam tau nthuav dav cia siab tias Fed yuav tswj hwm nws lub hom phiaj - hu ua soft landing. tsis rhuav tshem kev loj hlob.
Lawv tau sau tias "Thaum qhov kev poob qis hauv kev loj hlob zoo li tus nqi thoob plaws hauv lub rooj tsavxwm," lawv tau sau tias, "tsawg heev tau nqis mus rau theem kev lag luam." Pab pawg pom S&P 500 xaus rau lub xyoo ntawm 4,750, kwv yees li 15% saum toj no uas nws lig hnub Monday.
Cov paj laum luv luv, lub teeb liab ntawm kev sib tw ntawm cov khoom lag luam poob qis, yog ze rau cov ntaub ntawv qis, cov khub tau sau rau hauv ib daim ntawv sau hnub tim 3 Lub Rau Hli. Qhov tseeb, tag nrho cov paj laum luv piv nrog lub lag luam cov peev nyiaj tsis tau budged ntau ntawm nws ntau xyoo. downward trend thiab yog zaum ze 20-xyoo lows.
Lub caij no, qhov ntim ntawm kev lag luam hauv kev xaiv hu tau poob qis los ntawm qib siab ntawm kev sib kis thoob qhov txhia chaw, thaum bullishness tau cresting. Tab sis lawv hais tias qhov poob, txheeb ze rau kev xaiv kev lag luam, tsis qhia qhov kev cia siab ntawm kev cog lus. "Qhov sib piv muab / hu tam sim no nyob rau hauv txoj kab nrog kev loj hlob qeeb (ISM hauv qis 50s) tab sis tsis yog kev lag luam," lawv hais.
Tsis yog cov kws tshaj lij tuaj yeem pom zoo raws li qhov ua ntej rau kev lag luam.
Ntau tus neeg lag luam tau npau taws rau lub lim tiam dhau los thaum lub rooj sib txoos ntawm cov thawj coj tau tawm los nrog kev pom tsis zoo, suav nrog JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s Jamie Dimon, uas tau ceeb toom txog kev lag luam " nag xob nag cua." Lwm tus thawj coj hauv tuam txhab nyiaj tau hais lus zoo sib xws.
Txawm li cas los xij, cov kws tshaj lij ntawm cov tsev txhab nyiaj tsis tau pom zoo tag nrho, qhia txog qib siab ntawm kev lag luam tsis paub tseeb.
Cov kws tshawb fawb ntawm Goldman Sachs Group Inc., lub sijhawm no, hais tias Asmeskas kev lag luam tseem nyob ntawm txoj kev nqaim mus rau qhov chaw mos.
Deutsche Bank cov kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas kuj tau saib ntawm cov nyiaj tau los ntawm kev ncaj ncees, uas tau qeeb los ntawm cov ntaub ntawv teev tseg rau xyoo tas los tab sis tseem tsis tau pom cov nyiaj tau los. Qhov tseeb, nyob rau hauv peb lub hlis dhau los, cov nyiaj no tau sau tag nrho cov nyiaj tau los ntawm ntau dua $ 25 billion. Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, kev faib tsev neeg rau cov khoom lag luam tseem nce siab. Thiab qhov nrawm ntawm kev tshaj tawm kev yuav khoom rov qab txuas ntxiv muaj zog, khiav ntawm ntau dua $ 300 nphom hauv peb lub hlis dhau los, cov kws tshaj lij tau hais.
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Tau qhov twg los: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/few-market-signs-show-recession-194600206.html