Xav tias seasick? Tej yam yooj yim, cov nyiaj laus laus cov ntaub ntawv no tuav tau zoo

Koj tsis tas yuav yog clairvoyant thiab twv seb lub khw yuav mus qhov twg.

Koj tsis tas yuav them tus nqi siab hedge nyiaj (uas feem ntau tsis ua haujlwm lawm).

Thiab koj tsis tas yuav plam cov txiaj ntsig mus ntev los ntawm kev zaum hauv nyiaj ntsuab xwb.

Tus thawj tswj nyiaj Doug Ramsey qhov yooj yim "Txhua Yam Khoom Tsis Muaj Cai" cov ntaub ntawv tau poob ib nrab ntau npaum li tus qauv "sib npaug" cov ntaub ntawv txij li Lub Ib Hlis 1, thiab ib feem peb ntau npaum li S&P 500. Meb Faber qhov sib npaug yooj yim dua tau tuav zoo dua.

Thiab thaum ua ke nrog lub sijhawm ua lag luam yooj yim heev uas leej twg tuaj yeem ua hauv tsev, cov ntaub ntawv no yog ze li ntawm kev sib tsoo.

Qhov no, hauv ib xyoos thaum yuav luag txhua yam tau poob qis, suav nrog S&P 500
SPX,
+ 1.21%,
Nasdaq Composite
COMP,
+ 1.68%,
Kua
AAPL,
+ 1.02%,
Amazon
AMZN,
+ 1.49%,
meta
Fb,
+ 1.04%,
Tesla
TSLA,
+ 4.66%,
bitcoin
BTCUSD,
+ 6.46%
(Kuv paub, poob siab, txoj cai?), cov tuam txhab lag luam me me, kev nqis peev hauv vaj tse, cov nyiaj tau los siab, cov ntawv cog lus qib peev, thiab US Treasury bonds.

Qhov no tsis yog tsuas yog qhov txiaj ntsig ntawm hindsight, thiab.

Ramsey, tus thawj tswj hwm kev nqis peev ntawm Midwestern lub tuam txhab tswj hwm nyiaj txiag Leuthold Group, tau saib xyuas qhov nws hu ua "Txhua Yam Khoom Tsis Muaj Cai" cov ntaub ntawv, uas yog hom ntawm cov ntaub ntawv koj xav tau yog tias koj hais rau koj tus thawj saib xyuas nyiaj laus los tuav qee qhov. ntawm tag nrho cov khoom vaj khoom tsev loj thiab tsis muaj kev txiav txim siab. Yog li nws muaj qhov sib npaug ntawm 7 cov khoom muaj nqis: Asmeskas cov tuam txhab lag luam loj, Asmeskas cov tuam txhab lag luam me, Asmeskas kev nqis peev hauv vaj tse, 10 Xyoo US Treasury sau ntawv, cov khoom lag luam thoob ntiaj teb (hauv kev tsim lag luam xws li Europe thiab Nyiv), cov khoom muag thiab kub. .

Peb txhua tus tuaj yeem luam tawm cov ntaub ntawv no nrog 7 ETFs: Piv txwv li SPDR S&P 500 ETF ntseeg
Soj,
+ 1.20%,
lub iShares Russell 2000 ETF
IWM,
+ 1.97%,
Vanguard Vaj Tsev
VNQ,
+ 0.51%,
iShares 7-10 Xyoo Treasury Bond
IEF,
-0.27%,
Vanguard FTSE Tsim Kev Lag Luam ETF
VEA,
+ 1.69%,
Invesco DB Khoom Muag Index ETF
DBC,
+ 0.80%,
thiab SPDR Gold Trust
GLD,
-1.03%.
Cov no tsis yog cov lus pom zoo txog nyiaj txiag, tsuas yog cov duab kos. Tab sis lawv qhia tias cov ntaub ntawv no yog siv tau rau leej twg.

Faber cov ntaub ntawv zoo sib xws, tab sis tsis suav nrog cov nyiaj kub thiab cov tuam txhab me me hauv Asmeskas, tawm 20% txhua qhov hauv Asmeskas thiab thoob ntiaj teb cov tuam txhab lag luam loj, Asmeskas kev ntseeg vaj tse, US Treasury bonds, thiab cov khoom muag.

Cov khoom xyaw ua khawv koob xyoo no, ntawm chav kawm, yog muaj cov khoom muag. Lub S&P GSCI
SPGSCI,
+ 0.71%
tau skyrocketed 33% txij li thaum Lub Ib Hlis 1, thaum txhua yam tau tanked.

Lub ntsiab lus tseem ceeb ntawm no tsis yog cov khoom lag luam yog kev nqis peev mus ntev. (Lawv tsis yog. Lub sijhawm ntev ntawm cov khoom lag luam tau ua ib qho kev nqis peev me me lossis ib qho txaus ntshai, txawm tias kub thiab roj zoo li qhov zoo tshaj plaws, cov kws tshuaj ntsuam qhia kuv.)

Lub ntsiab lus tseem ceeb yog tias cov khoom lag luam feem ntau ua tau zoo thaum txhua yam, xws li cov khoom lag luam thiab cov ntawv cog lus, ua phem. Zoo li thaum xyoo 1970s. Los yog xyoo 2000s. Los yog tam sim no.

Qhov ntawd txhais tau tias tsis tshua muaj kev hloov pauv, thiab kev ntxhov siab tsawg dua. Nws kuj txhais tau hais tias txhua tus neeg uas muaj cov khoom lag luam hauv lawv cov khoom lag luam yog nyob rau hauv txoj haujlwm zoo dua los ua kom zoo dua thaum cov khoom lag luam thiab cov ntawv cog lus poob.

Tsuas yog tawm ntawm kev xav paub kuv tau rov qab los saib seb Ramsey's All Asset No Authority portfolio yuav ua li cas, hais tias, dhau 20 xyoo dhau los. Qhov tshwm sim? Nws tsoo nws. Yog tias koj tau nqis peev nyiaj sib npaug hauv cov khoom muaj nqis 7 thaum kawg ntawm 2002 thiab tsuas yog rov qab sib npaug ntawm qhov kawg ntawm txhua xyoo, kom cov ntaub ntawv sib npaug sib npaug thoob plaws txhua qhov, koj yuav tau tshaj tawm stellar tag nrho rov qab los ntawm 420%. Qhov ntawd yog tag nrho 100 feem pua ​​​​cov ntsiab lus ua ntej ntawm kev ua tau zoo ntawm, hais tias, Vanguard Balanced Index Fund
VBINX,
+ 0.17%.

Kev txheeb xyuas cov ntaub ntawv yooj yim ib hlis ib zaug yuav tau txiav cov kev pheej hmoo ntxiv.

Nws yog 15 xyoo txij li Meb Faber, tus tsim thiab tus thawj coj peev ntawm lub tuam txhab tswj nyiaj txiag Cambria Investment Management, ua kom pom lub zog ntawm kev lag luam yooj yim-lub sijhawm uas leej twg tuaj yeem ua raws.

Hauv kev txiav txim siab: Txhua yam koj yuav tsum tau ua yog xyuas koj cov ntaub ntawv khaws tseg ib hlis ib zaug, piv txwv li hnub ua haujlwm kawg ntawm lub hli. Thaum koj ua, saib txhua qhov peev, thiab sib piv nws tus nqi tam sim no nrog nws tus nqi nruab nrab ntawm 10 lub hlis dhau los, lossis txog 200 hnub ua lag luam. (Tus lej no, hu ua 200-hnub txav nruab nrab, tuaj yeem pom tau yooj yim ntawm no ntawm MarketWatch, los ntawm txoj kev, siv peb daim ntawv teev cov yam ntxwv).

Yog tias qhov kev nqis peev qis dua 200-hnub nruab nrab muag nws thiab txav cov nyiaj mus rau hauv cov nyiaj lag luam nyiaj txiag lossis rau hauv Cov Nyiaj Txiag. Qhov ntawd yog nws.

Nco ntsoov xyuas koj cov ntaub ntawv khaws tseg txhua lub hlis. Thiab thaum cov peev nyiaj rov qab los saum toj qhov nruab nrab txav, yuav nws rov qab. Nws yog qhov yooj yim.

Muaj cov cuab tam no tsuas yog thaum lawv kaw saum lawv 200-hnub nruab nrab ntawm hnub kawg ntawm lub hli dhau los.

Faber tau ua haujlwm tawm tias qhov kev ua haujlwm yooj yim no yuav tso cai rau koj los cuam tshuam txhua qhov kev lag luam phem tiag tiag thiab txiav koj qhov kev hloov pauv, yam tsis tau noj rau hauv koj cov nyiaj rov qab mus ntev. Qhov ntawd yog vim kev sib tsoo tsis zoo li tawm ntawm xiav, tab sis zoo li ua ntej los ntawm kev swb ntev thiab poob ntawm lub zog.

Thiab nws tsis yog ua haujlwm rau S&P 500 xwb, nws pom. Nws ua haujlwm zoo nkauj rau txhua chav kawm khoom vaj khoom tsev: Kub, khoom muag, kev ntseeg vaj tse, thiab Nyiaj Txiag Nyiaj Txiag.

Nws tau txais koj tawm ntawm S&P 500 xyoo no thaum kawg ntawm Lub Ob Hlis, ntev ua ntej lub Plaub Hlis thiab Tsib Hlis. Nws tau txais koj tawm ntawm Treasury bonds thaum kawg ntawm xyoo tas los.

Doug Ramsey tau suav tias lub sijhawm ua lag luam no yuav ua li cas rau 5 lossis 7 cov cuab yeej cuab tam no tau ze li 50 xyoo. Cov kab hauv qab: Txij li xyoo 1972 qhov no yuav tau tsim 92% ntawm qhov nruab nrab txhua xyoo rov qab los ntawm S&P 500, nrog tsawg dua li ib nrab ntawm qhov sib txawv ntawm cov khoom rov qab.

Yog li, tsis yog, nws yuav tsis zoo li lub sijhawm ntev heev xws li yuav thiab tuav cov khoom lag luam. Qhov nruab nrab txhua xyoo rov qab ua haujlwm tawm ntawm 9.8%, piv rau 10.5% rau S&P 500. Lub sijhawm ntev uas ua rau muaj qhov sib txawv loj. Tab sis qhov no yog ib qho kev pheej hmoo tswj cov ntaub ntawv. Thiab cov rov qab yuav tau impressive heev.

Amazingly, nws cov kev suav qhia tau hais tias nyob rau hauv tag nrho cov sij hawm ntawd koj portfolio yuav poob nyiaj nyob rau hauv tsuas yog peb lub xyoos: 2008, 2015 thiab 2018. Thiab cov kev poob yuav tsis tseem ceeb, ib yam nkaus thiab. Piv txwv li siv nws Tag Nrho Cov Khoom Muaj Cai Tsis Muaj Cai Lij Choj, ua ke nrog Faber lub hli ua lag luam teeb liab, yuav ua rau koj tsuas yog 0.9% liab hauv 2008.

Ib tug qauv portfolio ntawm 60% US stocks thiab 40% US daim ntawv cog lus xyoo ntawd: -22%.

S&P 500: -37%.

Tej yam zoo li "tag nrho cov huab cua" cov ntaub ntawv thiab kev tswj hwm kev pheej hmoo ib txwm zoo li paub daws teeb meem thaum lub khw lag luam ya thiab koj tau txais nyiaj txhua hli. Tom qab ntawd koj sawv los daig ntawm cov menyuam coaster los ntawm ntuj txiag teb tsaus, zoo li tam sim no, thiab lawv pib zoo li ntxim nyiam dua.