Fed rau cov lag luam Tshuag: Cov kev sib tw loj yuav tsuas yog ncua kev sib ntaus sib tua mob nyiaj txiag

Nyeem: Tsis muaj ib tus neeg ua haujlwm Fed xav tias yuav txiav cov paj laum kom tsim nyog rau xyoo no, cov lus sib tham qhia

Ntawm no yog cov kab lus: "Cov neeg koom nrog tau sau tseg tias, vim tias txoj cai tswj hwm nyiaj txiag ua haujlwm tseem ceeb hauv kev lag luam nyiaj txiag, kev tsis txaus ntseeg hauv kev lag luam nyiaj txiag, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog tias tau tsav los ntawm kev tsis pom zoo los ntawm pej xeem ntawm Pawg Neeg Saib Xyuas kev ua haujlwm, yuav nyuaj rau Pawg Neeg Saib Xyuas kev siv zog los kho tus nqi ruaj ntseg. ”

Hauv lus Askiv? Louis Navellier, tus thawj tswj hwm thiab tus tsim ntawm Navellier & Associates tau hais tias "Piv los ntawm Fedspeak, FOMC cov tswv cuab tsis nyiam cov khoom lag luam tawm tsam, vim lawv ntshai tias nws tuaj yeem ua rau muaj feem cuam tshuam rau cov neeg siv khoom lag luam," said Louis Navellier, tus thawj tswj hwm thiab tus tsim ntawm Navellier & Associates, hauv tsab ntawv ceeb toom hnub Thursday.

Thiab Fed tuaj yeem ua li cas txog nws?

"hais txawv, yog tias cov peev txheej txuas ntxiv mus rau cov xov xwm kev lag luam tsis zoo, Fed yuav tsum tau thawb mus rau qhov siab dua qhov chaw nres tsheb thiab tsis raug cai ntxiv 'cov khoom lag luam tsis muaj zog' rau txoj haujlwm," sau Ian Lyngen thiab Benjamin Jeffery, tus kws tshaj lij ntawm BMO. Capital Markets, nyob rau hauv daim ntawv hnub Wednesday.

Lawv tau sau tias "Cov lus qhia tau qhia lwm qhov kev siv dag zog los cuam tshuam kev lag luam ntawm kev xav tias Fed 'muab' yuav tshwm sim hauv 2023," lawv sau.

Archive: Fed yuav tsum 'ua rau poob ntau dua' ntawm cov tub ua lag luam-ua lag luam txhawm rau txhim kho kev nce nqi, hais tias yav dhau los tus thawj tswj hwm hauv nruab nrab

Cov tub ua lag luam tau tham txog qhov piv txwv Fed muab kev xaiv txij li tsawg kawg lub Kaum Hli 1987 kev lag luam kev lag luam poob ua rau Alan Greenspan-coj lub tuam txhab nyiaj hauv nruab nrab kom txo cov paj laum. Ib qho kev xaiv tiag tiag yog ib qho nyiaj txiag derivative uas muab rau tus neeg tuav txoj cai tab sis tsis yog lub luag haujlwm los muag cov khoom vaj khoom tsev hauv ib theem, hu ua tus nqi tawm tsam, ua haujlwm raws li kev pov hwm txoj cai tiv thaiv kev lag luam poob.

"Kev sib tham hauv qhov kev sib tham no yog cov lus nug ntawm ntau npaum li cas downside hauv US cov khoom lag luam [Tsoomfwv Teb Chaws Qhib Kev Lag Luam Pawg Neeg Saib Xyuas] txaus siab rau huab cua hauv nws txoj kev mob siab rau rov tsim kho tus nqi ruaj khov rau yav tom ntej - [Wednesday's] cov lus tshaj tawm tau txo qis qib hauv cov khoom lag luam ntawm uas cov tub ua lag luam yuav nrhiav Fed pivot, "BMO tus kws tshaj lij tau sau.

Cov feeb tau qhia meej tias "cov lus pov thawj Fed tau tso cai tuag thiab ploj mus," hais tias Kent Engelke, tus kws tshaj lij kev lag luam ntawm Capitol Securities Management, hauv tsab ntawv ceeb toom hnub Thursday.

Cov khoom lag luam tau dhia tawm ntawm 2022 qhov qis qis uas tau teem rau lub Kaum Hli mus rau hauv Fed lub Kaum Ob Hlis 13-14 lub rooj sib tham txoj cai, tab sis sai sai poob traction, poob hauv av mus rau qhov kawg ntawm lub hli raws li cov indexes loj tau booked lawv qhov kev ua tau zoo tshaj txhua xyoo txij li xyoo 2008. Cov Tshuag poob rau hnub Thursday, nrog Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
-1.02%
xaus nrog qhov poob ntawm ib ncig ntawm 340 cov ntsiab lus, lossis 1%, thaum S&P 500
SPX,
-1.16%
poob 1.2% thiab Nasdaq Composite
COMP,
-2.45%
poob qis dua 1.5%.

Cov nuj nqis luv luv tau nce mus rau 5% raws li cov tub ua lag luam tau tshwm sim los ntawm Fed cov lus qhia dhau los tias cov nyiaj tau los ntawm cov nyiaj tau los yuav zoo li siab tshaj qib xyoo no. Cov feeb qhia tsis muaj Fed cov tub ceev xwm xav tias yuav poob rau xyoo 2023, qhia txog kev sib faib ntawm lub hauv paus tsev txhab nyiaj thiab cov neeg koom nrog kev lag luam txog qhov yuav muaj qhov piv txwv ntawm txoj cai nruj dua tom qab xyoo no.

Saib: 'Cov cwj pwm qub tuag nyuaj': Cov tub lag luam saib thib ob ntawm 5%-ntxiv rau US cov paj laum los ntawm Lub Peb Hlis

Cov feeb qhia tsis muaj Fed cov tub ceev xwm xav tias txoj cai paj laum yuav poob rau xyoo 2023, ntawm qhov tsis sib xws nrog kev cia siab ntawm kev lag luam ua ntej tso tawm rau kev txiav tawm tom qab xyoo.

Ryan Sweet, tus thawj coj ntawm US tus kws tshawb fawb nyiaj txiag ntawm Oxford Economics tau hais tias "Cov lus qhia meej meej qhia Fed lub hom phiaj ntawm kev nce nqi tab sis kuj yog lawv qhov kev tsis txaus siab nrog kev txo qis hauv kev lag luam nyiaj txiag, uas lawv ntseeg tias cuam tshuam lawv cov kev siv zog kom ua tiav tus nqi ruaj ntseg," said Ryan Sweet, tus thawj coj ntawm US tus kws tshawb fawb ntawm Oxford Economics, hauv tsab ntawv Wednesday. "Nyeem cov tshuaj yej nplooj, cov feeb kev ntxhov siab tias Fed yuav txo qis kev nce nqi ntawm kev pheej hmoo ntawm kev ua phem rau kev ua lag luam thiab kev lag luam dav."

Ian Shepherdson, tus kws tshaj lij nyiaj txiag ntawm Pantheon Macroeconomics, tau hais rau hnub Wednesday tias qhov kev hais txog nyiaj txiag tau hais los qhia tias cov tub ua lag luam yuav tsum tsis txhob cia siab tias cov neeg tsim cai "kom muag lawv cov kab nyiaj nce mus txog thaum nws pom tseeb tias qhov kev hloov pauv loj hauv cov ntaub ntawv tab tom ua. ”

Qhov kev hloov pauv hauv cov ntaub ntawv tseem tsis tau paub hnub Thursday, tau txais ntau qhov kev liam rau kev lag luam tsis muaj zog, tom qab muaj zog ntau dua li kev cia siab hauv ADP qhov kwv yees ntawm lub Kaum Ob Hlis Ntuj cov nyiaj them poob haujlwm ntiag tug thiab ib tug poob rau thawj zaug thov nyiaj poob haujlwm mus rau 3 1/2-hli qis lub lim tiam dhau los.