Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve yuav downshift mus rau 25 lub hauv paus ntsiab lus nce nyob rau hauv nws txoj cai tus paj laum ntawm lawv lub rooj sib tham cov paj laum tom ntej thiab yuav ua hauj lwm tshaj sij hawm kom paub tseeb tias lub lag luam tsis tau txais lub tswv yim hais tias tus nqi nce lawm, economists hais tias.
"Txawm hais tias muaj xov xwm zoo ntawm kev nce nqi thiab ua ib kauj ruam los ze zog ua tiav, nws yuav sai dhau rau Fed kom tsis txhob nce tus nqi thiab yuav sai dhau los qhia tias yuav tsum tau nres," said Jonathan Pingle, tus kws lag luam nyiaj txiag ntawm UBS.
Nyob rau hauv lwm yam lus, "yuav muaj ib tug zaum kawg hawkish sting nyob rau hauv tus Tsov tus tw," ntxiv Paul Ashworth, tus thawj coj ntawm North America economist ntawm Capital Economics.
Lub sting yuav los ntawm Fed Thawj Tswj Hwm Jerome Powell uas yuav "xav ua tib zoo xav txog yuav ua li cas kom tsis txhob xa cov teeb liab dovish tsis pom zoo," pom zoo Jonathan Miller, tus kws tshawb fawb Asmeskas laus ntawm Barclays Capital.
Powell yuav tuav lub rooj sib tham xov xwm thaum 2:30 teev tsaus ntuj Eastern rau hnub Wednesday, ib nrab teev tom qab Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Qhib Kev Lag Luam Pawg Thawj Coj tau tshaj tawm nws qhov kev txiav txim siab.
Tab sis nws yuav tsis yooj yim. Kev lag luam twb zoo li ua kev zoo siab rau kev tuag ntawm kev nce nqi thiab rov qab los ntawm cov paj laum qis.
Qhov kev xav tau dav dav hauv peb lub hlis twg tus nqi nce siab yuav thawb Fed tus nqi ntsuas mus rau thaj tsam ntawm 4.5% -4.75%. Cov nqi tau ze rau xoom lub Peb Hlis tas los.
Cov neeg lag luam uas pauv nyiaj hauv kev lag luam yav tom ntej tam sim no cia siab tias qhov kawg ntawm Fed tus qauv ntsuas yuav yog 4.5% thaum kawg ntawm lub xyoo no thiab 2.9% thaum kawg ntawm 2024, sau tseg Ashworth.
10-xyoo Cov Txhab Nyiaj Sau Tseg
TUBMUSD 10Y,
yield tau poob rau 3.49% los ntawm 3.89% thaum lub Kaum Ob Hlis.
Taug kev mus rau hnub Friday kev lag luam, S&P 500
SPX,
tau thaws 15% los ntawm nws lub Kaum Hlis qis, thiab cov khoom muaj nqis pheej hmoo tau pom muaj zog dua: bitcoin
BTCUSD,
yog nce 46% los ntawm lig Kaum Ib Hlis.
Kathy Bostjancic, tus kws tshaj lij nyiaj txiag hauv tebchaws thoob tebchaws tau hais tias "Fed tsis xav ua kom muaj lub tswv yim tias lawv npaj yuav ncua sijhawm thiab qee lub sijhawm txawm tias txiav tus nqi,".
Cov nyiaj txiag yooj yim dua los ntawm qhov no yuav zoo li ntxiv qhov hluav taws kub kub uas tsis muaj hluav taws kub ntxiv lawm.
Txhawm rau tuav qhov kev cia siab, Powell yuav txuas ntxiv nias lub ntsiab lus uas nws tsis xav tias Fed ua tiav, Bostjancic tau hais.
Nws tseem yuav hais txog kev txhawj xeeb txog kev pabcuam nyiaj txiag thiab nyiaj ua haujlwm.
Tom qab lub quarter-point nce, Bostjancic xav tias Fed yuav nce tus nqi los ntawm ob peb feem pua ntawm cov ntsiab lus ntxiv - hauv lub Peb Hlis thiab Tsib Hlis - ua ntej ncua. Qhov ntawd yuav ua rau lub ncov ntawm qhov ntsuas tus nqi nce mus txog 5% -5.25%.
Nws tau hais tias Fed yuav yog "laser tsom" ntawm kev nce nqi txawm tias qhov kev xav tsis zoo ntawm kev lag luam.
Nyeem: Kev lag luam tsis zoo li GDP qhia
Luke Tilley, tus kws tshaj lij nyiaj txiag ntawm Wilmington Trust Investment Advisors, tau hais tias nws xav tias Fed yuav nce ib zaug ntxiv rau lub Peb Hlis thiab tom qab ntawd nres.
Tus nqi neeg siv tau khiav ntawm 1.8% txhua xyoo tus nqi nyob rau peb lub hlis dhau los, nws tau sau tseg.
Tilley tau hais tias "Txawm tias cov tswv cuab hawkish Fed ntau dua yuav tsum paub txog cov ntaub ntawv nyiaj txiag qis," Tilley tau hais.
Tilley tau hais tias Fed tsis tas yuav qhia tias nws tab tom npaj rau ncua lub lim tiam tom ntej vim tias kev ua lag luam twb tau cia siab lawm.
Ellen Zentner, tus thawj coj ntawm Asmeskas tus kws tshawb fawb nyiaj txiag ntawm Morgan Stanley, tau hais tias Fed yuav ncua sijhawm tom qab hnub Wednesday lub rooj sib tham.
"Peb qhov kev cia siab tseem nyob ruaj khov tias txoj haujlwm tau txais txiaj ntsig qeeb hauv cov ntawv luam tawm ua ntej, thiab qhov kev nce nqi tseem nyob nruab nrab, ua rau Fed nres ntawm lub rooj sib tham tom ntej," Zentner tau hais.
Sen. Elizabeth Warren, Massachusetts Democrat, qhia meej tias nws xav kom Fed tsis txhob nce cov paj laum.
“Cov lus qhia thaum ntxov yog tias kev nce nyiaj nce ntxiv. Yog li peb xav tau Fed kom coj tau yog rau cov lus teb thiab nres jacking cov paj laum ntawm tus nqi siab keeb kwm, "Warren tau hais hauv kev xam phaj hauv Politico.
Kev tso tseg tam sim no yuav ua rau nws muaj peev xwm zam kom tsis txhob muaj kev lag luam loj, nws hais ntxiv.
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-set-to-deliver-quarter-point-rate-hike-along-with-one-last-hawkish-sting-in-the-tail-11674807984? siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo