Fed Chair Hu Lub Tsev Lag Luam "Hloov heev"

Jerome Powell tau hais tias nws tau saib US vaj tsev ua lag luam yog "hnyav heev" tom qab muaj kev sib kis, thiab ntseeg tias cov khoom siv thiab kev xav tau yuav tsum tau rov qab mus rau qhov sib npaug.

Powell tau hais hauv lub rooj sib tham xov xwm thaum Lub Kaum Ib Hlis 2 raws li Pawg Neeg Saib Xyuas Kev Ruaj Ntseg Hauv Tebchaws Meskas, uas Powell tus thawj coj, tau tsa tus nqi 0.75 feem pua ​​​​ntawm cov ntsiab lus. sib ntaus surging US inflation. Qhov ntawd tuaj yeem nce nqi tsev qiv nyiaj ntxiv, tom qab lawv tau nce nyiaj ntau heev hauv 2022. Powell cov kev ua thiab cov lus pom tsis zoo rau vaj tsev.

Tsawg Risk

Powell tsis pom qhov sib piv rau qhov teeb meem nyiaj txiag loj vim tias qiv thiab cov qauv qiv nyiaj rau kev qiv nyiaj tam sim no ntau dua hauv Fed qhov kev xav dua li thaum muaj teeb meem nyiaj txiag, yog li Powell ntseeg tias poob los ntawm ib qho kev lag luam vaj tse tsis muaj zog rau kev lag luam dav dav yuav qis dua.

Fed Put?

Powell tau hais meej tias nws qhov kev txhawj xeeb tseem ceeb yog tswj hwm kev nce nqi, thiab yog tias muaj dab tsi, tsis yog nrhiav kev txhawb nqa cov khoom muaj nqis xws li vaj tsev, cov khoom lag luam thiab cov ntawv cog lus, Powell tau tsom mus rau kev tsav tsheb qis dua. Tsis muaj pov thawj ntau ntawm 'Fed muab' hnub no, uas yog lub sijhawm ua lag luam rau yuav ua li cas Fed yuav nqis los thiab tej zaum yuav saib txiav tus nqi yog tias cov khoom lag luam poob qis. Qhov ntawd tej zaum yuav yog xov xwm phem rau vaj tse thiab.

Powell tuaj yeem ntseeg tias qhov kev nqis peev qis dua tuaj yeem yog ib feem ntawm kev daws kom txo qis nyiaj txiag tam sim no, tsis yog qhov teeb meem uas Fed tab tom nrhiav kev kho.

Muab hais tias cov nqi yuav nce siab dua nyob rau lub hlis tom ntej, qhov ntawd tsis yog xov xwm zoo rau kev lag luam vaj tsev. Peb yuav tsum nco ntsoov tias qhov kev cia siab rau yav tom ntej feem ntau yog nyob rau hauv cov nqi tsev, yog li Fed nce tus nqi raws li kev lag luam kwv yees yuav tsis tas yuav ua rau lub sij hawm luv nqi qiv nyiaj ntau dhau.

Ntxiv Rau Lub Caij Nplooj Ntoos Hlav?

Qhov kev sib tw yog tias txawm tias Powell qhov kev ntsuam xyuas bleak, tsev nqi tseem tsis tau poob ntau. Yog lawm, peb tau pom ob peb lub hlis txij li lub caij ntuj sov, tab sis cov nqi tsev tseem nce ob tus lej ntawm qhov feem pua ​​​​ntawm xyoo dhau los ntawm feem ntau cov vaj tsev nyob.

Hauv qhov sib piv, cov nqi tsev qiv nyiaj, uas yog tus tsav tsheb tseem ceeb ntawm kev them nqi vaj tsev tsis ntev los no tau nce txog xya feem pua. Qhov ntawd yog theem tsis tau pom txij li xyoo 2002 los yog ntxov raws li ib qho 30-xyoo nqi tsev. Cov tsev tau dhau los ua tsis tshua muaj nqi.

Qhov Kawg Ntawm Cov Nqi Tsawg?

Lub sijhawm ntawm tus nqi qis heev hauv Asmeskas kev lag luam yuav xaus, thiab qhov ntawd tsis yog xov xwm zoo rau vaj tsev. Ib qho kev cia siab rau kev lag luam vaj tsev yog qhov Fed yog kab tias tam sim no ze rau sab saum toj ntawm cov paj laum, thiab tej zaum tus nqi poob qis hauv 2023.

Txawm li cas los xij, txawm tias qhov kev xav ntawd tuaj yeem ua rau muaj kev cia siab dhau lawm, yav tom ntej qhia qee lub sijhawm Fed tuav cov nqi tsis tu ncua hauv 2023. Cov nqi qis dua yuav yog qee txoj hauv kev. Kev ua lag luam tam sim no pom cov nqi rov qab los txog li plaub feem pua ​​​​ntawm cov txiaj ntsig zoo tshaj plaws rau 2023. Nws muaj feem ntau tias cov nqi luv luv siv feem ntau ntawm 2023 nyob ib ncig ntawm tsib feem pua ​​​​raws li kev cia siab ntawm kev lag luam.

Raws li cov lus niaj hnub no, lub caij nyoog ntawm Fed txhawb kev lag luam vaj tsev zoo li qis dua piv rau qhov tseem ceeb ntawm kev sib ntaus sib tua nyiaj txiag. Yog tias muaj dab tsi, Fed tej zaum yuav nrhiav tau cov nqi tsev nqes. Qhov no yog vim hais tias cov nqi vaj tsev yog ib feem loj ntawm qhov kev nce nqi uas Fed xav kom tswj tau. Tus nqi qis hauv tsev yuav yog qhov Fed xav tau rau qib qis ntawm US kev nce nqi.