Pov Thawj Ua Rau Mob Housing Recession

Kev xav ntawm kev lag luam vaj tsev nyob qis qis peb tsis tau pom txij li xyoo 1980s. Kev ntsuas cov khoom lag luam tau txav mus rau qhov tsis raug, thiab cov nqi qiv nyiaj yog nyob rau theem peb tsis tau pom txij li ua ntej muaj teeb meem nyiaj txiag. Kev lag luam vaj tsev yuav phem npaum li cas?

Poob Consumer Sentiment

Lub Tsev Kawm Ntawv ntawm Michigan taug qab seb cov neeg siv khoom xav li cas txog kev ua lag luam vaj tsev. Koj yuav tsum rov qab mus rau thaum ntxov 1980s kom pom qhov kev xav phem ntau npaum li peb tab tom pom tam sim no.

Muaj qee qhov zoo sib xws ntawm lub sijhawm ntawd thiab tam sim no. Thaum ntxov xyoo 1980, Tebchaws Asmeskas Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve (Fed) tau nce cov paj laum loj heev los tiv thaiv kev nce nqi, suab paub? Cov nqi tau nce siab dua li tam sim no, tab sis cov txiaj ntsig chilling ntawm kev lag luam vaj tsev zoo sib xws. Cov xov xwm zoo rau tom qab xyoo 1980 yog tias cov nqi tau poob rau xyoo tom ntej, ua rau cov nqi tsev pheej yig dua. Txawm li cas los xij, tam sim no Fed tau npaj yuav nce tus nqi, tsis txiav lawv. Tseem muaj cov cim qhia ntxov tias kev nce nqi tuaj yeem txo qis thiab yog tias qhov ntawd ua rau qhov kawg ua rau Fed txiav cov nqi uas yuav ua rau qee lub neej ua rau lub tsev lag luam.

Hnub Xub Thawj

Txawm tias pessimism nyob ib ncig ntawm vaj tse, nws tseem ceeb heev kom nco ntsoov tias raws li Zillow cov ntaub ntawv, tag nrho cov cheeb tsam tseem pom tus nqi nce nyob rau hauv ib lub xyoo dhau ib xyoo. Yog lawm, qee thaj tsam tau pom qhov poob qis txhua hli, tab sis qhov ntawd tsis yog qhov txawv txav raws caij nyoog thiab ntau thaj chaw tau pom tus nqi tuav. Qhov tseeb, saib Zillow cov ntaub ntawv rau 3 lub hlis txog Lub Kaum Hli, tsuas yog California, Utah thiab Nevada tau pom cov khoom poob rau hauv nqe. Yog tias muaj vaj tse tawg los nws tsis tau pib.

Muaj qhov sib txawv loj heev ntawm tus cwj pwm rau lub lag luam vaj tsev thiab qhov twg cov khoom sawv tam sim no. Yog tias vaj tse ua si raws li kev xav pom, vaj tsev yuav nyob rau ob peb xyoos. Fed Chair pom zoo, Jerome Powell tsis ntev los no hu ua lub tsev lag luam "hnyav heev".

Cov Thawj Coj Ua

Cov cim tseem ceeb, xws li cov uas muab los ntawm Realtor.com, tab tom qhia cov kab nrib pleb hauv tsev lag luam. Tus nqi txo yog nce ntxiv. Tus naj npawb ntawm cov npe tau nce, yuav luag rov qab mus rau theem ua ntej muaj kev sib kis, thiab lub sijhawm ntawm kev ua lag luam tau nce, txawm tias nws nce los ntawm qib qis heev.

Cov kev ntsuas no yog txhua yam qhia tias kev lag luam vaj tsev muag muag, tab sis qhov cuam tshuam tsis tau tshwm sim hauv cov nqi tsev tsis tau. Tsis tas li ntawd, lub caij nyoog ua rau nws nyuaj rau untangle qhov tsis muaj zog tiag tiag hauv vaj tse es tsis yog lub caij nyoog zoo li peb tawm lub caij ntuj sov muag ntau dua.

Housing Affordability

Kev them nqi vaj tsev raws li taug qab los ntawm Atlanta Fed tseem yuav phem heev thiab. Ib zaug ntxiv, qhov no yuav tsum tsis txhob ntau dhau ntawm qhov xav tsis thoob uas tau txais cov nqi tsev qiv nyiaj nce siab. Txawm li cas los xij, nws yog lwm qhov cim qhia tias kev lag luam vaj tsev yuav raug teeb tsa kom tsis muaj zog.

Txawm hais tias koj saib cov kev xav ntawm cov neeg siv khoom, kev them taus lossis cov ntaub ntawv hauv qab no muaj cov laj thawj rau kev txhawj xeeb txog kev lag luam vaj tsev. Tseem nws tseem ceeb heev uas yuav tsum nco ntsoov tias cov nqi tsev tau zoo nkauj subdued kom deb li deb. Lawv nyob twj ywm ib xyoos ib zaug hauv txhua lub khw.

Kev lag luam vaj tsev yuav zoo tuaj, tab sis peb tseem tsis tau pom nws hauv cov nqi tsev tam sim no. Yog tias Fed tau txiav cov nqi qis, daim duab vaj tsev tuaj yeem txhim kho ib yam li nws tau ua nyob rau nruab nrab xyoo 1980, tab sis lawv tau hais meej tias lawv tsis muaj kev cia siab tias yuav ua li ntawd. Qhov tseeb nws yog Fed Chair nws tus kheej uas txaus siab piav qhia txog US vaj tsev ua lag luam li "hnyav heev."