Lub tsheb muag tau poob.
txais
Cov tuam txhab tsheb nyob sab Europe ntsib kev cuam tshuam loj rau lawv cov lag luam raws li kev lag luam kev lag luam poob qis thiab kev nce nyiaj nce ntxiv ntawm cov neeg siv khoom ntseeg siab, thaum muaj kev hem thawj rau ntiaj teb kev thaj yeeb kuj ua rau muaj kev xav yuav lub tsheb tshiab.
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Dab tsi yuav zoo li lub caij nplooj zeeg me me hauv kev muag khoom yuav txhais tau tias muaj kev cuam tshuam loj dua ntawm cov txiaj ntsig.
Tebchaws Asmeskas tseem tab tom ntsib kev hem thawj rau kev muag khoom. Tuam Tshoj yuav khi ua ntej xyoo no thiab ntsib kev poob qis hauv 2023.
Kev muag khoom kwv yees rau Western Europe tau raug shaved ntau dua li txiav, nrog peev nyiaj UBS kwv yees 1.4% poob rau xyoo no rau 12.3 lab lub tsheb thiab SUVs, thaum lub xyoo tom ntej yuav tsum tshem tawm lwm 2.6% raws li kev muag khoom poob rau 12.0 lab.
Cov kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas kev lag luam zoo li tsis kam hu rau lawv qhov kev kwv yees muag rau txawm tias muaj kev ntshai tias tsis muaj zog yuav yuam European teeb tawm mus thiab cov chaw tsim khoom kaw. Kev txhawj xeeb tsis ntev los no tau taw qhia rau kev pov tseg ntawm European pov tseg cov nyiaj tau los vim yog qhov nce loj ntawm tus nqi ntawm lub zog hauv tsev. Cov tsoomfwv tau nthuav tawm cov nyiaj pab ntau heev kom tsis yog tsuas yog them nyiaj tawm lawv cov neeg pluag tshaj plaws xwb tab sis kuj kom paub tseeb tias muaj peev xwm siv nyiaj txaus los ua kom kev lag luam nyob hauv av.
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Reuters 'BreakingViews kem hais tias qhov teeb meem no yuav nyob ib puag ncig ib ntus, txawm hais tias tsoomfwv nruj.
"Lub zog nyem yog qhov teeb meem ntau xyoo uas yuav ua rau cov teb chaws Europe txom nyem thiab tsis muaj kev sib tw thaum tu siab rau cheeb tsam nrog cov nuj nqis ntau dua. Kev cuam tshuam nrog qhov no tib lub sijhawm thaum daws kev nce nqi yuav ua rau muaj kev tsis sib haum xeeb uas yuav poob qis rau xyoo, "BreakingViews columnist Hugo Dixon tau hais nyob rau nruab nrab Lub Cuaj Hli.
Cov neeg tsim khoom yuav pom qhov kev ntxhov siab no vim muaj coob tus tau pom 2022 kev muag khoom tau txais txiaj ntsig zoo heev. Qhov no yog vim qhov loj backlog hauv kev muag khoom tsim los ntawm qhov tsis txaus ntawm semiconductors tau yuam cov tuam txhab kom tso tseg qhov kev nrhiav ntim thiab mloog zoo rau cov nyiaj tau los ntawm cov tsheb loj.
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Tebchaws Asmeskas AutoForecast Solutions sums txog deteriorating tej yam kev mob zoo li no.
"Kev lag luam thoob ntiaj teb tab tom sim tawm tsam qhov kev cia siab poob qis. Nrog lub ntiaj teb kev nce nqi nce siab dua li cov kws lag luam xav tau, kev muag khoom qeeb qeeb thoob plaws ntau qhov kev lag luam tau ua rau muaj kev lag luam poob qis. Thaum lub tsheb lag luam nyob rau hauv cov ntsiab lus qis hauv North America thiab Europe, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog nyob rau sab hnub tuaj Europe, kev lag luam muaj zog tuaj yeem ua rau lawv raug mob ntxiv, "AutoForecast Solutions tau hais hauv nws daim ntawv tshaj tawm Lub Kaum Hli.
Fitch Solutions Lub Tebchaws Risk & Kev Tshawb Fawb Kev Lag Luam tau hais tias Tebchaws Europe tag nrho tam sim no yuav yog thaj chaw ua haujlwm tsis zoo tshaj plaws hauv xyoo 2022, nrog kev muag khoom poob 10.8%, tsis yog tsawg kawg yog vim muaj kev cuam tshuam ntawm Lavxias. UBS muab qhov poob rau tag nrho cov teb chaws Europe ntawm rho tawm 6.8% thiab 15.6 lab tsheb thiab rov qab mus rau rho tawm 2.4% xyoo tom ntej thiab 15.2 lab. Western Europe suav nrog tag nrho cov lag luam loj ntawm lub teb chaws Yelemees, Fabkis, Britain, Ltalis thiab Spain.
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UBS hais tias Asmeskas kev muag tsheb yuav poob 4.5% hauv 2022 txog 14.4 lab, thiab tseem zoo li qub hauv 2023. Tuam Tshoj kev muag khoom yuav nce 4.8% mus rau 24.9 lab hauv 2022 thiab plam 3.0% hauv 2023.
Tus kws tshawb fawb txog kev nqis peev Bernstein hais tias European cov txiaj ntsig tau raug cuam tshuam.
"Cov kev pheej hmoo no cuam tshuam rau kev lag luam thiab kev pabcuam nyiaj txiag ntawm (cov chaw tsim khoom), txawm tias cov tuam txhab ua kom lawv cov kev pabcuam hluav taws xob. Qhov no ua rau peb nyiam cov khoom kim heev thiab cov khoom kim heev uas nyiam cov paj ntoo siab dua thiab muaj zog dua, "Bernstein tau hais hauv tsab ntawv ceeb toom.
UBS tau hais tias kev lag luam yuav txo qis kev muag tsheb hauv 2023 hauv txhua cheeb tsam loj, nrog rau qhov kev cia siab yuav ploj mus ntawm kev rov qab los raws li kev txhim kho cov khoom siv chip tom qab ob xyoos ntawm cov fwj. Lub tuam txhab peev nyiaj txiav nws qhov kev kwv yees lub teeb tsheb thoob ntiaj teb rau 2 los ntawm 2023 lab rau 3.
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"Peb cia siab tias kev lag luam pib hloov pauv los ntawm qis dua mus rau kev xa khoom, nrog rau qhov cuam tshuam tsis zoo rau (cov neeg tsim khoom) tus nqi zog thiab cov npoo. Peb twb tau txiav kev kwv yees rau cov tuam txhab cov nyiaj khwv tau los ntawm ib feem los ntawm 30% thoob plaws lub rooj tsavxwm, tab sis cov ntaub ntawv downside rau tus nqi / sib xyaw tuaj yeem ua phem dua tom qab kwv yees li 10% nce nyiaj hauv tus nqi hluav taws xob txij li thawj ib nrab xyoo 2020 tuaj yeem muaj kev pheej hmoo, ” UBS tau hais hauv tsab ntawv ceeb toom.
"EV thiab hwm / khoom kim heev tsheb feem ntau yuav tsum qhia qhov kev thov siab tshaj plaws thiab tus nqi them rov qab. Peb kuj tau hloov kho peb tus qauv EV, nrog tus lej qis dua rau kev tawm tsam European tsheb lag luam tab sis qhov kev xav tau loj hlob zoo rau Asmeskas vim yog cov se tshiab, "UBS tau hais.
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.forbes.com/sites/neilwinton/2022/10/05/european-auto-industry-faces-sliding-sales-but-bigger-hit-to-profits/