European Central Bank (ECB) tau tshaj tawm ua ntej hnub no tias nws tau nce tus nqi paj laum tseem ceeb los ntawm 50bp, ntau heev raws li kev cia siab ntawm kev lag luam. Vim tias nws yog qhov qeeb qeeb dua li qhov dhau los, ib tus tuaj yeem hais tias ECB pivoting.
Yog tias muaj, ces qhov no yog qhov piv txwv hawkish vim (yuav luag) txhua yam ECB tau hais hnub no yog hawkish rau lub hauv paus.
Puas yog koj tab tom nrhiav kom tau cov xov xwm ceev, kub-cov lus qhia thiab kev tsom xam kev ua lag luam?
Sau npe rau Invezz cov ntawv xov xwm, hnub no.
Ntau qhov tseeb, ECB tau muab cov lus qhia tsis txaus ntseeg niaj hnub no. Qhov kev hloov kho nce ntxiv hauv qhov kev nce nqi nce siab qhia tias lub tuam txhab nyiaj hauv nruab nrab yuav nce cov paj laum los ntawm lwm qhov 50bp hauv Lub Ob Hlis 2023.
Tsis tas li ntawd, cov neeg ua haujlwm macroeconomic projections qhia tias kev lag luam yuav rov zoo dua nyob rau xyoo tom ntej tom qab poob qis hauv 2023.
Ib tug hawkish stance los ntawm ECB
Cov neeg koom ua lag luam tau cia siab tias yuav nce 50bp tus nqi nce los ntawm ECB. Txawm li cas los xij, lawv tsis tau cia siab tias yuav muaj kev ntxhov siab heev uas nrog rau kev nce qib.
Ua ntej, ECB pom kev lag luam kev lag luam uas yuav los tom ntej yog luv luv thiab ntiav. Qhov thib ob, cov neeg ua haujlwm kwv yees qhia txog kev hloov kho loj dua rau kev nce nqi, suav nrog lub hauv paus tseem ceeb. Thaum kawg, kev nce nqi ntawm 2025 yog dhau ntawm ECB lub hom phiaj, nrog cov neeg ua haujlwm pom qhov tseem ceeb ntawm 2.4%.
Tsis tas li ntawd, kev pheej hmoo yog tilted rau upside.
EUR/USD poob siab dua 1.07
Lawm, cov euro tau dhia ntawm ECB cov lus tshaj tawm thiab kev sib tham xov xwm. Cov EUR / USD, piv txwv li, pauv saum toj no 1.07, ib qho kev thim rov qab zoo kawg nkaus xav tias tsuas yog ob peb lub hlis dhau los, nws tau ua lag luam hauv qab 0.96.
Tab sis tsis tsuas yog EUR / USD nce siab hnub no. EUR / JPY yog nce 1%, EUR / GBP ib yam, thiab EUR / AUD tau nce ze rau 2%. Yog li ntawd, lub euro rally hla lub dashboard.
Rov qab los rau EUR / USD, daim duab qhia tau zoo li bullish. Cov khub tau poob qis thaum Lub Kaum Hli, ua ke nrog Asmeskas kev lag luam kev ncaj ncees, thiab tom qab ntawd tau sib sau ua ke.
Tsis ntev los no, nws tau tsim ib qho kev nce qib. Feem ntau, cov kab txuas ntxiv yog cov qauv bearish, tab sis qee zaum lawv ua raws li kev txuas ntxiv.
Thaum twg lawv ua raws li cov qauv txuas ntxiv, nws txhais tau hais tias kev ua lag luam tau tsim ib daim duab peb sab khiav - tus qauv bullish hu rau ntau upside. Yog li, ib tus yuav tsum tsis txhob xav tsis thoob thaum pom EUR / USD tshem tawm kev tawm tsam ntawm 1.08 sai dua tom qab.
Tau qhov twg los: https://invezz.com/news/2022/12/15/eur-usd-price-forecast-amid-the-ecbs-hawkish-pivot/