Kev txhawb nqa CPI Kev Tshaj Tawm Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij Tshaj Lij yav dhau los Fed Pause

Lub Kaum Ib Hlis Consumer Price Index (CPI) Report rau lub hli Lub Kaum Hli muab cov cim qhia tias kev nce nqi hauv Asmeskas yuav nqis los. Cov nqi nce 0.4% ib hlis-rau-hli, thiab cov nqi khoom noj tsawg dua thiab lub zog nce 0.3%. Cov no tau qis txaus ua rau lub xyoo dhau los tus nqi nce nqi poob mus rau 7.7%.

Qhov no tsuas yog ib lub hlis ntawm cov ntaub ntawv tus nqi, tab sis muaj ntau cov lus qhia uas qhia tias kev nce nqi hauv Teb Chaws Asmeskas yuav poob qis, vim tias tus nqi ntau dua poob rau txhua hli hauv cov ntsiab lus tseeb. Txawm li cas los xij, peb muaj qee txoj hauv kev mus ua ntej kev nce nqi nce mus rau Fed lub hom phiaj 2%.

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Qee tus nqi poob

Cov nqi dav dua tam sim no poob qis, cov no suav nrog tsheb siv, khaub ncaws thiab kev pabcuam kho mob. Qee cov nqi hluav taws xob ntsig txog poob ib yam nkaus, txawm hais tias cov koob no muaj zog dua. Ntawm cov qib granular ntau dua, qee cov khoom siv hauv tsev thiab cov khoom siv tau poob rau hauv tus nqi nrog rau ntau yam khoom noj (sib tham hauv qab). Cov nqi poob no tuaj yeem pab txhawb cov nqi uas tseem nce siab thiab pab txo qis nyiaj txiag. Yav dhau los feem ntau tus nqi tau nce hauv unison.

Nqe vaj tse thiab zaub mov

Vaj tse thiab zaub mov nqa hnyav hnyav hauv CPI index. Cov nqi vaj tsev pheej nce ntxiv. Qhov tseeb, qhov kev nce nrawm nrawm hauv lub Kaum Ib Hlis daim ntawv tshaj tawm raws li qhov loj tshaj plaws txhua hli nce txij lub Kaum Ib Hlis 1990.

Qhov ntawd yog qhov sib txawv nrog qhov softness peb tau pom nyob rau hauv US vaj tsev lag luam. Yog vim li cas rau qhov no yog cov ntaub ntawv txheeb cais ntawm yuav ua li cas CPI series suav nrog, ua rau nws ntau dua ntawm qhov taw qhia ntawm cov nqi tsev nyob rau lub hlis tsis ntev los no.

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Txawm li cas los xij, Fed nkag siab qhov no thiab tej zaum yuav tsis tshua muaj kev txhawj xeeb txog kev nce nqi vaj tsev, vim tias qhov kev xav tau yuav tig mus rau qee qhov ntawm lub hlis tom ntej. Yog thiab thaum twg nws ua li ntawd yuav pab txhawb kev nce nqi qis dua.

Khoom noj khoom haus

Cov nqi zaub mov yuav pib yooj yim. Qhov no yog cov xov xwm zoo siab vim tias cov nqi khoom noj tau nce siab rau cov nyiaj tau los qis dua. Cov nqi zaub mov kuj yog ib feem loj ntawm CPI suav. Cov nqi khoom noj tau nce ntawm yuav luag 11% txhua xyoo tus nqi hauv 12 lub hlis dhau los. Txawm li cas los xij, nyob rau lub Kaum Ib Hlis daim ntawv tshaj tawm qhov nce yog 0.6% lub hli-rau-hli, implying nce 7.4% txhua xyoo.

Cov nqi zaub mov tseem tseem nce siab ntxiv, tab sis tej zaum cov kev nce no qeeb. Tsiaj protein, qe, cereal thiab dej haus cov nqi tseem feem ntau nce. Txawm li cas los xij, hauv kev txais tos hloov pauv, txiv hmab txiv ntoo thiab zaub tshiab nrog rau cov mis nyuj tam sim no poob rau hauv nqe.

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Yog li daim duab dav dav yog tias kev nce nqi tseem siab heev thiab zoo tshaj Fed lub hom phiaj. Txawm li cas los xij, yog tias qhov kev hloov pauv hauv daim ntawv tshaj tawm niaj hnub no tuav peb tab tom pib pom ntau thiab ntau tus nqi poob qis hauv cov ntsiab lus tseeb, offsetting cov uas tseem nce nqi.

Tsis tas li ntawd, ib feem loj ntawm cov nqi nce yog vim cov nqi vaj tsev muab lawv qhov hnyav hauv CPI. Ntawm no peb tuaj yeem ntseeg me ntsis tias qhov muag muag tam sim no hauv vaj tse yuav tsum tau txhais thaum kawg rau CPI series ntawm qee qhov taw tes hauv lub hlis tom ntej.

Fed's Reaction

Peb tseem tsis tau tawm ntawm hav zoov, tab sis qhov no yog cov ntaub ntawv uas Fed tau cia siab rau, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog thaum tam sim no kev kwv yees tau hais tias kev nce nqi tuaj yeem nce qib siab dua.

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Tau kawg, ib lub hlis ntawm cov ntaub ntawv tsis ua rau muaj qhov sib txawv, thiab peb tau pom cov ntawv nyeem qis txhua hli ua ntej qhov ntawd tsis kav, xws li lub Plaub Hlis xyoo no. Txawm li cas los xij, muaj pov thawj tias kev nce nqi nce ntxiv. Tam sim no qhov kev sib tw yog qhov kev nce nqi nws mus ntawm no. Txawm tias lub Kaum Ib Hlis tsab ntawv ceeb toom qhia txog 5% kev nce nqi txhua xyoo, uas zoo ua ntej ntawm Fed lub hom phiaj. Fed twb tau qhia tias nws tab tom nrhiav kom ncua kev nce qib ntawm qee lub sijhawm hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm 2023, nrog rau lub Kaum Ib Hlis CPI tshaj tawm lub sijhawm rau qhov ntawd yuav raug rub mus tom ntej. Qhov no kuj tseem tuaj yeem teeb tsa me me taug kev ntawm lub Fed lub rooj sib tham lub Kaum Ob Hlis yog tias cov ntaub ntawv nyiaj txiag tom ntej no txhawb nqa.