(Bloomberg) - Mohamed El-Erian, uas yuav luag ib xyoos dhau los tau raug kwv yees hais tias kev nce nyiaj hauv Teb Chaws Asmeskas yuav nyob mus li, hais tias nws tsis tau nce siab.
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Tus kws tshaj lij kev lag luam ua lag luam pom zoo pom zoo nrog kev pom zoo txhua hli rau lub Tsib Hlis tus nqi siv khoom lag luam yuav tsum tau tshaj tawm rau hnub Friday, tab sis hais rau Bloomberg TV's The Open rau hnub Thursday tias "qhov kuv txhawj xeeb yog tias lub Rau Hli-ib-lub hlis luam tawm yuav phem dua. lub Tsib Hlis-on-month print. Cov uas ua siab loj hais tias kev nce nqi tau nce siab thiab nqis los yuav tau hloov siab. "
Nyeem ntxiv: Hnub no Tus Nqi Ua Haujlwm Qhia US CPI tuaj yeem xa tawm qhov tsis txaus siab
CPI rau lub Plaub Hlis tau nce 8.3%, nqis los ntawm 8.5% lub hli dhau los, tab sis tseem nyob ze rau qhov nce loj tshaj plaws hauv plaub lub xyoos. Kev nce nqi txhua xyoo yuav nce siab ntawm 8.2% nyob rau lub Tsib Hlis, raws li qhov kev kwv yees nruab nrab hauv Bloomberg kev tshawb fawb ua ntej tshaj tawm hnub Friday. Qhov ntawd tseem ntau dua plaub npaug ntawm cov qib pom ua ntej muaj kev sib kis.
El-Erian, 8.5, hais tias "Nws yuav tsis xav tsis thoob yog tias peb pom cov ntawv xov xwm tshaj tawm siab dua 63%," txawm hais tias "tsis yog ntxov li lub hli tom ntej," El-Erian, XNUMX xyoo hais tias. Nyob rau hauv cov ntawv xov xwm, cov nqi hluav taws xob tau nce ib hlis ib hlis ib zaug heev. Peb pom kev nyuaj siab ntawm vaj tse thiab zaub mov. Nws yog txoj kev ntxov dhau los hais tias kev nce nqi tau nce siab. "
Inflation erodes tus nqi ntawm daim ntawv cog lus 'tas them nyiaj. 10-xyoo Nyiaj Txiag tau poob yuav luag 12% xyoo no thaum muaj kev poob qis hauv ntau cov cuab tam nyiaj txiag, raws li S&P US Treasury Bond Current 10-Xyoo Total Return Index.
Thaum Lub Xya Hli, El-Erian tau kwv yees tias kev nce nqi, thaum lub sijhawm ua haujlwm ntawm 5.4% ib xyoos ib zaug, yuav tsis hloov pauv raws li Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve tau npaj. Hnub Thursday, nws tau hais tias Fed tau ua "txoj cai yuam kev" ntawm kev nce nqi, hais txog lub tuam txhab nyiaj hauv nruab nrab tsis txwv txoj cai nyiaj txiag los ntawm kev txo nws daim ntawv tshuav nyiaj thiab nce nqi kom txog rau thaum lub xyoo no.
Txawm hais tias qee tus kws tshaj lij nyiaj txiag pom Fed tus nqi-hloov tswj hwm zoo li yuav thawb Asmeskas kev lag luam mus rau kev lag luam poob qis, El-Erian, tus kws sau xov xwm Bloomberg Tswvyim, hais tias qhov ntawd yog nws "kev pheej hmoo. Stagflation yog kuv lub hauv paus kab. "
“Cia li ceev faj qhov koj xav tau. Yog tias koj ntseeg tias kev lag luam kev ua haujlwm tseem muaj zog, cov nyiaj ua haujlwm tseem muaj zog thiab pib nce mus txog kev nce nqi, ces nws nyuaj rau pom kev nce nqi nqis los, "nws hais. "Tab sis yog tias koj xav tias peb yuav muaj kev lag luam poob qis, paub tseeb, kev nce nqi yuav nqis los, tab sis qhov ntawd tsis yog qhov kev hloov pauv hloov pauv uas ib tus neeg xav tau."
El-Erian, tus thawj coj ntawm Gramercy Fund Management thiab tus kws tshaj lij kev lag luam ntawm Allianz SE, hais tias Fed yuav tsum "xaiv thiab ua raws li nws. Qhov phem tshaj plaws yog Fed-flopping Fed, Fed uas nce nqi, thiab tom qab ntawd nres thaum lub Cuaj Hli, thiab tom qab ntawd pib taug kev dua thiab tom qab ntawd nres dua. Qhov ntawd tsuas yog txhais tau tias stagflation yuav nyob ntev dua li qhov nws xav tau. "
Nyeem ntxiv: US Inflation May Lie Ahead, Core Elevated hauv 2023
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Tau qhov twg los: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/el-erian-warns-inflation-hasn-162427134.html