Kev lag luam poob qis 0.9% Lub Peb Hlis Kawg Raws li cov kws tshaj lij ceeb toom 'Zoo Los Txog'

Tojsiab

Tebchaws Asmeskas kev lag luam poob qis rau lub quarter thib ob nyob rau xyoo no, raws li cov ntaub ntawv tshaj tawm hnub Wednesday, qhia txog qhov pib ntawm kev lag luam kev lag luam txawm tias cov kws lag luam kwv yees cov cim ntawm kev poob qis tsuas yog yuav loj hlob hauv peb lub hlis tom ntej, zoo li yuav ua rau tsoomfwv ua haujlwm. tshaj tawm tias kev lag luam tau nkag mus rau kev lag luam poob qis.

Cov Lus Tseem Ceeb

Tebchaws Asmeskas kev lag luam poob qis ntawm tus nqi txhua xyoo ntawm 0.9% hauv lub quarter thib ob txawm hais tias qhov kev cia siab nruab nrab hu kom nce 0.3% - cim rau lub quarter thib ob ntawm cov khoom lag luam tsis zoo hauv kev loj hlob thiab yog li qhia tias kev lag luam tau nkag mus rau kev lag luam kev lag luam, Lub Chaw Haujlwm Saib Xyuas Kev Lag Luam. Kev txheeb xyuas nyiaj txiag qhia nyob rau hauv thawj qhov kwv yees tso tawm hnub Thursday.

Tsoomfwv tau liam tias qhov tsis zoo tshaj qhov kev cia siab ntawm qhov kev poob qis hauv kev nqis peev hauv vaj tse (lossis yuav tsev), tsoomfwv kev siv nyiaj thiab kev lag luam khoom lag luam, tab sis hais tias qhov nce siab ntawm kev xa tawm thiab kev siv nyiaj pab kev lag luam txhim kho los ntawm lub quarter kawg poob ntawm 1.6%.

Ob peb lub hlis twg ntawm qhov kev loj hlob tsis zoo GDP suav nrog ib qho kev txhais ua haujlwm ntawm kev lag luam kev lag luam, hais tias Wells Fargo tus kws tshaj lij nyiaj txiag laus Tim Quinlan - tab sis nws tsis yog tus thawj coj: Hloov chaw, qhov tseeb hu mus rau National Bureau of Economic Research, uas txhais tau tias kev lag luam poob qis li " kev poob qis hauv kev lag luam kev lag luam" kav ntev "ntau tshaj li ob peb lub hlis."

Quinlan taw qhia txog plaub ntawm rau yam uas NBER tso siab rau tshaj tawm txog kev lag luam - kev tsim khoom, nyiaj tau los, kev ua haujlwm thiab kev siv nyiaj - txuas ntxiv mus rau qhov kev nthuav dav mus txog lub Tsib Hlis, tab sis nws sau tseg tias kev tsim khoom zoo li "poob chav" thiab cov nyiaj tau los tau txais kev tawm tsam kom khaws cia. nce nrog kev nce nqi, tag nrho thaum poob haujlwm thov sawv thiab cov neeg siv khoom pib siv tsawg.

zoo li lwm yam Cov kws tshawb fawb kev lag luam, Quinlan tsis ntseeg tias qhov ntsuas kev lag luam hauv lub quarter dhau los tau qhia txog kev lag luam kev lag luam tam sim no, tab sis nws ceeb toom kev lag luam qeeb thiab "nws tab tom pib xav zoo li [ nkag mus rau ib qho]

tsuas yog ib qho teeb meem ntawm lub sijhawm. "

Cov ntaub ntawv los txog ib hnub tom qab Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve Chair Jerome Powell downplayed qhov tseem ceeb ntawm cov ntaub ntawv GDP thaum ntxov, uas tuaj yeem hloov kho "tseem ceeb," thiab hais tias "tsis muaj kev nkag siab tias kev lag luam yuav poob qis" muab lub zog ua lag luam hauv kev lag luam. thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo, nrog qee tus 2.7 lab tus tib neeg ntiav thiab cov neeg poob haujlwm tseem nyob ze rau qhov qis qis ua ntej kev sib kis.

Kev Nkag Siab Hais

"Peb tsis xav tias kev lag luam poob qis tam sim no, tab sis yog tias peb qhov kev kwv yees raug raug, qhov no tsis yog lub taub hau cuav vim tias nws yog qhov tsis zoo rau yav tom ntej," hais Quinlan, uas tawm tsam qhov kev loj hlob GDP tsis zoo. nyob rau hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo tsis zoo li ib tug muaj nuj nqi ntawm tsis muaj zog hauv qab xav tau tab sis hloov vim "ib-tawm" volatile yam xws li net exports thiab inventories. Nws hais ntxiv tias "Peb cia siab tias qhov kev quaj nrov nrov ntawm qhov kev poob qis tiag tiag yuav pib thaum ntxov xyoo tom ntej," nws hais ntxiv.

Dab Tsi Los Saib

Tsoomfwv yuav hloov kho nws qhov kev kwv yees, raws li cov ntaub ntawv ua tiav ntau dua, thaum Lub Yim Hli 25. Daim duab thib peb thiab zaum kawg yuav raug tso tawm rau lub Cuaj Hli.

Tsis meej

Cov khoom lag luam tau poob qis tam sim tom qab kev lag luam tso tawm, nrog rau S&P 500 kev lag luam poob txog 0.3% los ntawm 8:40 sawv ntxov ET, thaum lub sij hawm tech-hnyav Nasdaq poob 0.7%.

Txaus Ntshai Qhov Tseeb

Txawm hais tias kev kwv yees kwv yees txuas ntxiv hu rau kev rov qab los rau kev loj hlob nyob rau lub quarter thib ob, Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve Bank ntawm Atlanta's GDPNow tus qauv lig lub hli dhau los tau pib qhia qhov pib ntawm kev lag luam kev lag luam, thawb nws GDP kev kwv yees mus rau hauv thaj chaw tsis zoo tom qab cov ntaub ntawv kev lag luam pom tau tias cov neeg siv khoom poob qis. hauv lub Tsib Hlis. "Tus qauv cov ntaub ntawv ua haujlwm ntev yog qhov zoo heev," hais tias DataTrek kws tshuaj ntsuam Nicholas Colas thiab Jessica Rabe, taw qhia nws qhov kev ua yuam kev nruab nrab tsuas yog 0.3 cov ntsiab lus txij li Atlanta Fed pib khiav nws hauv 2011. Ua ntej ntawm GDP luam tawm, tus qauv npaj ua ntej. kev lag luam poob qis 1.2% peb lub hlis dhau los.

Tus Keeb Kwm Tseem Ceeb

Fed qhov kev tshem tawm ntawm kev ntsuas kev sib kis thoob ntiaj teb thiab kev nce nqi paj laum xyoo no tau ua rau muaj kev txhawj xeeb ntawm kev lag luam yuav tshwm sim. Thaum ntxov lub hlis no, Bank of America economists ceeb toom Cov neeg siv khoom uas ua rau kev nce nyiaj nce ntxiv thiab qhov txiaj ntsig tau nce siab tau ua rau "kev txhawj xeeb tsis zoo" hauv kev lag luam, thiab tshwj xeeb hauv kev lag luam vaj tsev nyob ib zaug. "Fed tau cog lus ntau dua los siv nws cov cuab yeej los pab kho tus nqi ruaj ntseg, nrog rau kev txaus siab lees txais yam tsawg kawg ntawm cov txheej txheem," lawv hais, kwv yees tias kev lag luam yuav poob rau xyoo tom ntej.

ntxiv nyeem ntawv

Fed nce cov paj laum Los ntawm 75 Cov ntsiab lus tseem ceeb dua li cov tub lag luam Brace rau kev poob nyiaj (Forbes)

IMF ceeb toom Ntawm 'Gloomy Outlook' Rau Kev Lag Luam Ntiaj Teb, Slashing Loj hlob kwv yees (Forbes)

Teb Chaws Asmeskas yuav poob rau hauv kev poob nyiaj xyoo no raws li 'Kev txhawj xeeb' Kev Loj Hlob, Bank of America ceeb toom (Forbes)