Tojsiab
Kev lag luam Asmeskas poob qis rau lub quarter thib ob nyob rau xyoo no, qhov kev kwv yees thib ob los ntawm Lub Tsev Haujlwm Saib Xyuas Kev Lag Luam Kev Lag Luam tau lees paub rau hnub Thursday - ib zaug ntxiv qhia txog qhov pib ntawm kev lag luam kev lag luam txawm tias cov kws lag luam kwv yees cov cim ntawm kev poob qis yuav tsuas yog loj hlob hauv peb lub hlis tom ntej. , tej zaum yuav ua rau tsoomfwv tshaj tawm tias kev lag luam tau nkag mus rau kev lag luam poob qis.
"Nws tsis muaj kev nkag siab tias kev lag luam yuav poob qis," Fed Chair Powell tau hais rau hnub Wednesday, … [+]
AFP ntawm Getty Dluab
Cov Lus Tseem Ceeb
Tebchaws Asmeskas kev lag luam poob qis ntawm tus nqi txhua xyoo ntawm 0.6% hauv lub quarter thib ob txawm hais tias qhov kev cia siab nruab nrab thaum xub thawj hu kom nce 0.3% - cim rau lub quarter thib ob ntawm kev loj hlob tsis zoo ntawm cov khoom lag luam hauv tsev thiab yog li qhia tias kev lag luam tau nkag mus rau kev lag luam kev lag luam, lub Bureau. ntawm Economic Analysis qhia hauv kev kwv yees thib ob tau tshaj tawm hnub Thursday.
Daim duab no yog qhov phem tshaj li 0.5% cov kws lag luam poob qis tau cia siab, tab sis zuam los ntawm 0.9% poob kwv yees lub hli tas los.
Tsoomfwv tau liam tias qhov tsis zoo tshaj qhov kev cia siab ntawm qhov kev poob qis hauv kev nqis peev hauv vaj tse (lossis kev yuav tsev), tsoomfwv kev siv nyiaj thiab kev lag luam cov khoom lag luam, tab sis hais tias kev nce siab hauv kev xa tawm thiab kev siv nyiaj pab kev lag luam txhim kho los ntawm lub quarter kawg poob ntawm 1.6%.
Raws li ib qho kev txhais ua haujlwm, kev lag luam kev lag luam suav nrog ob lub quarter sib law liag ntawm GDP kev loj hlob tsis zoo, hais tias Wells Fargo tus kws tshawb fawb laus Tim Quinlan - tab sis nws tsis yog tus thawj coj: Hloov chaw, qhov tseeb hu mus rau National Bureau of Economic Research, uas txhais tau hais tias yog ib qho kev ua haujlwm. Kev lag luam kev lag luam raws li "kev poob qis hauv kev lag luam" kav ntev "ntau tshaj li ob peb lub hlis."
Quinlan taw qhia txog plaub ntawm rau yam uas NBER tso siab rau tshaj tawm txog kev lag luam - kev tsim khoom, nyiaj tau los, kev ua haujlwm thiab kev siv nyiaj - txuas ntxiv mus rau qhov kev nthuav dav mus txog lub Tsib Hlis, tab sis nws sau tseg tias kev tsim khoom zoo li "poob chav" thiab cov nyiaj tau los tau txais kev tawm tsam kom khaws cia. nce nrog kev nce nqi, tag nrho thaum poob haujlwm thov sawv thiab cov neeg siv khoom pib siv tsawg.
zoo li lwm yam Cov kws tshawb fawb kev lag luam, Quinlan tsis ntseeg tias qhov ntsuas kev lag luam hauv lub quarter dhau los tau qhia txog kev lag luam kev lag luam tam sim no, tab sis nws ceeb toom kev lag luam qeeb thiab "nws tab tom pib xav zoo li [ nkag mus rau ib qho]
tsuas yog ib qho teeb meem ntawm lub sijhawm. "
Kev Nkag Siab Hais
"Peb tsis xav tias kev lag luam tau poob qis tam sim no, tab sis yog tias peb qhov kev kwv yees raug raug, qhov no tsis yog lub taub hau cuav vim tias nws yog qhov tsis zoo rau yav tom ntej," hais Quinlan, uas tawm tsam qhov tsis zoo GDP kev loj hlob hauv. thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo tsis zoo li qhov ua haujlwm ntawm qhov tsis muaj zog hauv qab xav tau tab sis hloov pauv vim "ib-tawm" yam tsis hloov pauv xws li cov khoom xa tawm thiab cov khoom muag. Nws hais ntxiv tias "Peb cia siab tias qhov kev quaj nrov nrov ntawm qhov kev poob qis tiag tiag yuav pib thaum ntxov xyoo tom ntej," nws hais ntxiv.
Dab Tsi Los Saib
Tsoomfwv yuav hloov kho nws qhov kev kwv yees, raws li cov ntaub ntawv tiav ntau dua, rau peb thiab zaum kawg hauv lub Cuaj Hli.
Txaus Ntshai Qhov Tseeb
Txawm hais tias kev kwv yees kwv yees txuas ntxiv hu rau kev rov qab los rau kev loj hlob hauv lub quarter thib ob, Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve Bank ntawm Atlanta's GDPNow tus qauv hauv Lub Xya Hli tau pib qhia qhov pib ntawm kev lag luam kev lag luam, thawb nws GDP kev kwv yees mus rau hauv thaj chaw tsis zoo tom qab cov ntaub ntawv nyiaj txiag pom tau tias cov neeg siv khoom siv tau poob rau hauv. Tsib. "Tus qauv kev ua haujlwm ntev yog qhov zoo heev," hais tias DataTrek kws tshuaj ntsuam Nicholas Colas thiab Jessica Rabe, taw qhia nws qhov kev ua yuam kev nruab nrab tsuas yog 0.3 cov ntsiab lus txij li Atlanta Fed pib khiav nws hauv 2011. Ua ntej ntawm GDP luam tawm, tus qauv tau npaj tseg. kev lag luam poob qis 1.2% peb lub hlis dhau los. Tam sim no nws ua haujlwm tias kev lag luam yuav loj hlob 1.4% hauv peb lub hlis twg.
Tus Keeb Kwm Tseem Ceeb
Fed qhov kev tshem tawm ntawm kev ntsuas kev sib kis thoob ntiaj teb thiab kev nce nqi paj laum xyoo no tau ua rau muaj kev txhawj xeeb txog kev lag luam yuav tshwm sim. Nyob rau hauv Lub Xya hli ntuj, Bank of America economists ceeb toom Cov neeg siv khoom uas ua rau kev nce nyiaj nce ntxiv thiab qhov txiaj ntsig tau nce siab tau ua rau "kev txhawj xeeb tsis zoo" hauv kev lag luam, thiab tshwj xeeb hauv kev lag luam vaj tsev nyob ib zaug. "Fed tau cog lus ntau dua los siv nws cov cuab yeej los pab kho tus nqi ruaj ntseg, nrog rau kev txaus siab lees txais yam tsawg kawg ntawm cov txheej txheem," lawv hais, kwv yees tias kev lag luam yuav poob rau xyoo tom ntej.
ntxiv nyeem ntawv
IMF ceeb toom Ntawm 'Gloomy Outlook' Rau Kev Lag Luam Ntiaj Teb, Slashing Loj hlob kwv yees (Forbes)
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonathanponciano/2022/08/25/gdp-again-flashes-recession-warning-sign-economy-shrank-06-last-quarter-as-experts-warn- phem-rau-tuaj/