Lawv hu nws “Dr. Doom” rau ib qho laj thawj. Nouriel Roubini, tus kws tshaj lij ntawm New York University's Stern Tsev Kawm Ntawv ntawm Kev Lag Luam thiab CEO ntawm Roubini Macro Associates, muaj keeb kwm ntawm kev xav tsis zoo-tab sis feem ntau yaj saub tau- Kev kwv yees nyiaj txiag.
Tus txiv neej uas pom xyoo 2008 US vaj tse tawg thiab tom qab Great Financial Crisis (GFC) tau ceeb toom thoob plaws xyoo 2022 tias US kev poob qis yog inevitable thiab thoob ntiaj teb stagflationary nuj nqis ntsoog yuav ua raws.
Lub lim tiam no nws tsoo qhov uas yuav cuam tshuam rau cov khoom lag luam, rov hais dua hu rau ib qho ntse poob nyob rau hauv S&P 500, txawm tias xiav-chip Performance index tsis ntev los no rebound los ntawm nws lub kaum hli ntuj qis.
"Hauv kev lag luam luv luv thiab ntiav, feem ntau, los ntawm lub ncov mus rau trough S&P 500 poob los ntawm 30%," Roubini hais rau Bloomberg. "Yog li txawm tias peb muaj kev lag luam me me ... koj yuav muaj 15% ceg qis dua."
"Yog tias peb muaj qee yam hnyav dua li kev lag luam luv luv thiab ntiav, tab sis tsis hnyav npaum li GFC ... koj muaj lwm qhov 25% downside," nws hais ntxiv.
Roubini tau ceeb toom tias thawj cov cim qhia txog kev lag luam kev lag luam yuav pom nyob rau hauv kev lag luam credit, thiab tshwj xeeb tshaj yog cov nuj nqis ntawm "zombies" - cov tuam txhab uas tau txais cov nuj nqis ntau dhau thiab tso siab rau cov qauv kev lag luam uas tsis muaj kev vam meej.
Tus kws tshaj lij nyiaj txiag tau hais tias nws ntseeg tias Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve yuav raug yuam kom nce cov paj laum rau 6% txhawm rau tiv thaiv kev nce nqi, yuam ntau zombies "raug kev ntxhov siab."
"Yog tias peb yuav nkag mus rau kev lag luam poob qis, ntau lub koom haum ... yuav muaj qhov nce ntxiv ntawm cov nuj nqis pabcuam. Yog li koj yuav pom kev nyuaj siab hauv kev lag luam qiv nyiaj, "Roubini tau hais, sib cav tias ntau tus zombies twb "muaj txiaj ntsig zoo."
As Fortune yav dhau los qhia, Goldman Sachs muaj kwv yees tias 13% ntawm US-based tuam txhab "yuav raug suav hais tias" zombies. Thiab New Constructs CEO David Trainer hais tias tam sim no muaj kwv yees li 300 cov tuam txhab lag luam zombie.
Roubini tau hais hauv qhov Project Syndicate tsis ntev los no op-ed tias lub sijhawm ntawm "kev lag luam Kaj ntug ntawm Tuag" yog tam sim no dhau los ntawm Fed kev sib ntaus nyiaj txiag, tab sis ntxiv rau hauv nws qhov kev xam phaj nrog Bloomberg tias nws mus ntev dua li qhov nws yuav tsum muaj.
Cov tuam txhab zombie tau raug them nyiaj tawm thaum lub sijhawm COVID teebmeem, nws hais tias, los ntawm zero-zero cov paj laum thiab kev txo qis-ib txoj cai uas Fed yuav qiv nyiaj qiv nyiaj rov qab thiab tsoomfwv cov nyiaj qiv nyiaj los txhawb kev qiv thiab kev nqis peev hauv kev lag luam.
Nws tau hais tias "Ua ntej COVID teebmeem, Fed tau sau cov ntaub ntawv nyiaj txiag ruaj ntseg hais tias lawv txhawj xeeb txog kev lag luam," nws hais. "Thiab dab tsi tshwm sim thaum lub sijhawm muaj teebmeem kev tiv thaiv COVID yog cov tsev haujlwm, cov koom haum no, tsis yog tsuas yog tsis mus tawg, tab sis lawv tau txais nyiaj pab ... thiab lawv qiv ntau dua."
Private- thiab pej xeem-sector nuj nqis Raws li ib feem ntawm cov khoom lag luam thoob ntiaj teb tau nce los ntawm 200% hauv 1999 txog 350% hauv 2021. Thiab hauv Teb Chaws Asmeskas, cov nuj nqis tsis yog tuam txhab lag luam tau ntaus cov ntaub ntawv $ 12.5 trillion hauv lub quarter thib ob ntawm lub xyoo no, raws li Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve. cov ntaub ntawv.
Hauv nws phau ntawv tshiab, MegaThreats: 10 Yam Tseem Ceeb Uas Ua Rau Peb Lub Neej Yav Tom Ntej, thiab Yuav Ua Li Cas Cia Lawv Cia, Roubini ceeb toom txog qhov muaj peev xwm ua rau muaj teeb meem nuj nqis los ntawm kev nce cov paj laum thiab sau cov nuj nqis pej xeem thiab ntiag tug.
Raws li cov paj laum nce, nws sib cav tias cov nuj nqis no yuav tsis muaj txiaj ntsig, ua rau muaj kev kub ntxhov thoob ntiaj teb tsis zoo li txhua yam peb tau pom ua ntej.
"Tus niam ntawm tag nrho cov nuj nqis stagflationary teeb meem tuaj yeem raug ncua, tsis zam," nws sau rau hauv nws qhov Project Syndicate ua op.
Zaj dab neeg no yog thaum chiv keeb los Fortune.com
Ntau los ntawm Fortune: Rishi Sunak tus thawj coj nyiaj txiag qub tau them nws tus kheej $ 1.9 lab ib hnub rau xyoo no Ntsib tus kws qhia ntawv hnub nyoog 29 xyoo nrog plaub qib uas xav koom nrog Great Resignation Koj yuav tau nyiaj npaum li cas los yuav tsev $400,000 Elon Musk 'xav punch' Kanye West tom qab pom tus rapper swastika tweet ib qho 'incitement rau kev ua phem'
Tau qhov twg los: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/dr-doom-nouriel-roubini-says-200934331.html