Txawm hais tias muaj kev txhawj xeeb txog kev nce nqi thiab kev lag luam uas yuav tshwm sim, muaj tsawg kawg yog ib qho kev qhia tias qee cov kws tshuaj ntsuam xyuas kev lag luam yuav ua rau muaj kev cuam tshuam.
Tus ntoo khaub lig kub zoo nkaus li tau tsim hauv Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
Ntau tshaj li cuaj lub hlis tom qab tus ntoo khaub lig tuag tuag tau tsim rov qab rau lub Peb Hlis, raws li cov txheej txheem hawkish ntawm Tsoom Fwv Teb Chaws Reserve tau tawg bullishness ntawm Wall Street.
Tus ntoo khaub lig kub tshwm sim thaum 50-hnub txav nruab nrab rau cov khoom vaj khoom tsev ua lag luam saum 200-hnub MA, thaum tus ntoo khaub lig tuag, piv txwv li, yog thaum 50-hnub poob qis dua qhov nruab nrab ntev.
Qhov 50-hnub txav nruab nrab rau Dow sawv ntawm 32,200.32, thaum kawg kos rau hnub Friday yav tav su, thaum 200-hnub zaum ntawm 32,460.71, kwv yees li 260-point sib txawv uas tuaj yeem hla hauv lub lim tiam tom ntej lossis ob, raws li nws txoj kev tam sim no. .
FactSet
Tus ntoo khaub lig golden yuav cim thawj zaug rau Dow kev lag luam txij li xyoo 2020 ntawm Lub Yim Hli, raws li Dow Jones Market Data.
Daim ntawv qhia kev loj hlob kuj tseem yuav tshwm sim nyob rau lub sijhawm khib rau cov tub ua lag luam, nrog qhov pom tseeb ntawm kev nce qib hauv kev lag luam, txawm tias qhov kev hem thawj ntawm kev lag luam poob qis hauv 2023 loj hlob.
BlackRock, tus thawj tswj hwm cov cuab yeej cuab tam loj tshaj plaws hauv ntiaj teb, tau cia siab tias yuav muaj kev poob qis tsis zoo li lwm tus uas peb tau pom hauv keeb kwm Asmeskas.
“Kev tswj hwm macro tshiab tab tom ua si. Peb xav tias yuav tsum muaj phau ntawv tshiab, muaj zog ua si raws li kev xav ntawm kev noj qab haus huv kev lag luam thiab tus nqi ntawm macro puas tsuaj, " sau BlackRock's Investment Institute pab pawg coj los ntawm Jean Boivin.
Pab pawg BlackRock tau hais tias kev lag luam tsis tas yuav raug nqi hauv kev txom nyem uas raug kwv yees.
"Cov tsev txhab nyiaj hauv nruab nrab tau tshwm sim rau kev ua 'txhua yam nws yuav siv' los tiv thaiv kev nce nqi, ua rau kev lag luam poob qis, hauv peb qhov kev xav," pab pawg ntawm BlackRock tau sau.
Raws li MarketWatch's Tomi Kilgore sau tseg, crosses, zuag qhia tag nrho, tsis tas yuav zoo li lub sijhawm ua lag luam.
Mus saib: MarketWatch's nyob blog ntawm kev ua lag luam
Nyob rau sab saum toj ntawm qhov ntawd, MarketWatch tus sau xov xwm Mark Hulbert xaus lus tias Asmeskas kev lag luam hauv nruab nrab tau ua tiav tsis zoo nyob rau hauv lub wake ntawm ib tug ntoo khaub lig raws li nws tau ua nyob rau lwm lub sijhawm.
Hauv ntau qhov xwm txheej, tus ntoo khaub lig golden tuaj yeem pab muab cov cuab yeej cuab tam txav mus rau hauv kev xav, txawm li cas los xij, lawv zoo li xov tooj zoo.
Interestingly, kev lag luam nyiaj txiag kuj tseem tau kwv yees dav dav thiab qee tus tsis xav tias cov tub ua lag luam tau txais cov ntawv sau tseg. Raws li BlackRock sau tseg, cov tub ua lag luam tsis xav txog qhov kev puas tsuaj uas yuav los, tshwj xeeb tshaj yog cov nyiaj tau los ntawm cov tuam txhab Asmeskas yog qhov loj.
Yog li, nws yuav tsim nyog rau cov tub ua lag luam coj cov ntoo khaub lig kub hauv cov cuab tam nrog cov nplej ntsev.
Txog tam sim no, Dow kev lag luam tau ua tau zoo tshaj peb lub hlis dhau los, nce li 5%, piv nrog qhov poob ntawm 2.5% rau S&P 500.
SPX,
thiab 8.2% poob rau Nasdaq Composite
COMP,
Nyob rau hauv peb lub hlis dhau los, Dow industrials muaj tsis ntev los no nyob rau hauv aggregate nyob rau sab nraum qab ntawm nce nyob rau hauv shares ntawm Caterpillar
MIV,
Boeing Co.
BA,
Merck & Co.
MRK,
IBM
IBM,
thiab Travelers Cos.
TSWV,
Rau lub xyoo tam sim no, Dow poob qis 7%, thaum S&P 500 tawm 17% thiab Nasdaq poob ze li 30%.
Tau qhov twg los: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-dow-industrials-are-on-the-verge-of-a-golden-cross-even-as-blackrock-predicts-recession-like-no- lwm-11670608304?siteid=yhoof2&yptr=yahoo