Bank of America cov kws tshaj lij hais rau cov neeg siv khoom hauv tsab ntawv ceeb toom rau hnub Thursday tias lawv tsis pom cov ntawv qhia txaus los qhia txog qhov kawg ntawm lub lag luam dais. Hloov chaw, muaj cov cim qhia txog teeb meem ua ntej - txaus los qhia cov tub ua lag luam kom muaj tswv yim ntau dua li dhia hauv.
Pab pawg BofA pom ntau yam laj thawj rau kev ceev faj. Thaum muaj kev pom ntawm Wall Street tias yog txhua tus neeg poob qis, nws yog lub sijhawm los yuav, cov tswv yim no tsis pom qhov kev xav ntawm Main Street. Cov tsev neeg Asmeskas sawv cev rau $ 38 trillion hauv cov cuab tam, lossis kwv yees li 52% ntawm Asmeskas kev lag luam kev ncaj ncees, thiab cov neeg no tseem tsis tau pib muag.
"Cov tsev neeg tau yuav $ 5.9 trillion hauv cov peev txheej hauv ob xyoos dhau los txog rau thaum xaus ntawm thawj peb lub hlis twg xyoo 2022, nrog kev nkag mus rau txhua lub hlis twg txij li Covid," cov kws tshaj lij sau. "Keeb kwm, yav dhau los peb qhov kev lag luam loj qis tau tshwm sim 1-2 lub hlis tom qab cov neeg ua lag luam hauv tsev muag." Cov nyiaj "loj", lossis cov tub ua lag luam, tseem tseem yuav tau raws li kev lag luam ntiag tug pom. kev nrhiav nyiaj txiag muaj zog. Kev lag luam ntiag tug tau nce $ 800 billion txog tam sim no xyoo no - ib qho kev sib tw ntawm kev sib tw mus txog $ 1.4 trillion los ntawm lub xyoo kawg, raws li Preqin. Cov hom kev nkag mus thoob plaws ob qho tib si pej xeem thiab ntiag tug kev lag luam tseem yog lwm qhov kos npe rau pab pawg BofA uas lub khw tsis tau pom "kwv yees txwv 'kev ntshai'" uas feem ntau tuaj nrog rau qhov kawg ntawm lub lag luam dais.
Tsuas yog 30% ntawm cov cim taw qhia uas feem ntau teeb ua ntej kev lag luam hauv qab tau tshwm sim hnub no, raws li Bank of America kev ncaj ncees thiab tus kws tshaj lij Savita Subramanian, uas xav kom tsawg kawg 80% ntawm cov ntawv qhia ib txwm ua kom pom ntsuab.
Piv txwv li, kev kwv yees nyiaj khwv tau los tseem nce 7% txij li kev ua lag luam nce siab. Lawv feem ntau poob 19% ntawm qhov nruab nrab ntawm kev lag luam qis. Thaum lub sijhawm tsib qhov kev poob qis kawg, S&P 500 tau qis dua tom qab kev kwv yees raug txiav, tshwj tsis yog xyoo 1990, thaum cov nyiaj tau los rau ib feem tseem nyob tiaj tus, nws sau tseg.
Fed kuj yog lwm qhov kev txhawj xeeb. Economist Ethan Harris txhawj xeeb tias cov nqi khoom lag luam siab dua, cov nyiaj qiv qis dua thiab cov txiaj ntsig qis dua yog qhov tsis sib xws ntawm Thawj Tswj Hwm Jerome Powell thiab cov neeg ua haujlwm xav pom txij li nws cuam tshuam lawv kev tawm tsam kev nce nqi. Qhov kev loj hlob zoo dua thiab kev nce nqi yog, qhov ntxiv Fed yuav tau mus nrog cov nqi kom txias cov khoom.
Yog li cas cov tub ua lag luam yuav tsum ua?
BofA cov kws tshaj lij pom zoo kom cov neeg siv khoom siv qhov lawv pom raws li dais kev lag luam sib tw muag me ntsis los tsim cov nyiaj ntsuab lossis tig mus rau hauv cov khoom lag luam zoo dua nrog cov nyiaj muaj zog thiab ruaj khov thiab cov nyiaj faib tawm. "Ua kom cov nyiaj faib tawm thiab daim npav rho nyiaj rov ua lag luam ncua thiab siv cov txheej txheem sau se poob ua ntej kev yuav khoom zoo dua xyoo no," cov kws tshaj lij sau ntawv hauv tsab ntawv rau cov neeg siv khoom.
Bank of America's Michael Hartnett cov lus qhia: "Nibble" yog tias S&P 500 nce mus txog 3600, "tom" ntawm 3300, thiab "gorge" ntawm 3000. Qhov ntawd yog txoj hauv kev deb ntawm qhov ntsuas tam sim no 4241.33.
Txog tam sim no, Hartnett pom kev nce nqi siab dhau rau Fed los pivot. Qhov ntawd yuav xav tau cov ntaub ntawv them nyiaj tsis muaj zog nyob rau hauv 100,000 txoj haujlwm, qhov nce siab tshaj plaws nrog cov neeg siv khoom lag luam ntsuas ntsuas 0.0% mus rau .2% lub hli dhau ib hlis nce, ntau dua volatility nrog cov txiaj ntsig siab tshaj plaws ntawm 600 lub hauv paus ntsiab lus, roj tau txais hauv qab no $ 80 ib chim thiab ib tug steeper Treasury nkhaus.
Sau ntawv rau Reshma Kapadia ntawm [email tiv thaiv]